🧵Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest | live tactical thread...
Yes, it's finally time! Enzo Maresca's Chelsea are up next for me. It's time to give analysis live, in a thread you can read along or bookmark for later. Will end up pinning it too 👍
So, before we begin:
🔹I, have watched Chelsea this season sparingly. I've not really done any analysis on them. The last time I did, was ahead of the season when I predicted how Enzo Maresca's tenure would go.
In this thread, I basically said they would.
-Start really strongly
- Struggle as more teams would low-block them
- Then we would see how good Maresca actually was
Well, it's because in this game against Forest, I'm going be paying close attention to the movement of Chelsea's players.
I'm looking for signs that Maresca is coaching his players to find space and build patterns. Things that going forward, will see Chelsea become a top top top side.
🔹Final point before starting: I have kept in the loop on Chelsea through creators like @ConnorHolden00 and @JohyanCruyff (top tier chaps)
I also watched the latest video from my colleagues on @TheAthleticFC - go watch!
Rightio, here are the lineups. Let's begin. Do reply to the tweets live, I always like to respond quickly as I do these!
I'll watch until James Ward-Prowse is sent off, I always find there's less interesting stuff to glean in 11v10 games.
1:05 in and already have found a nice bit of play from Chelsea.
Cucurella plays the ball to Colwill here. All of his immediate options are blocked...
So, Colwill and Gusto are doing to do a couple of clever things.
▪️Colwill steps forward into the space, quite bravely
▪️While Gusto stops, shifts backwards, which takes his marker with him and away from Colwill!
This keeps the channel open, Colwill hits the pass. Nice combo!
Caicedo also shifts a little wider too, keeping that channel open.
Gonna need help here chat, I THINK I've spotted Cole Palmer do something pretty cool 🧐
He's just playing the ball into Noni Madueke, and moves up to support him.
I keep replaying this.
So Palmer looks like he's going to run into the space behind, but holds his run.... and I'm about 75% sure he actually points to Madueke to drive in behind, as he drops off to open up that exact space!
I mean, it works! Madueke gets to the byline and crosses.
It's important to ask now that I'm 10 minutes in: Does Maresca usually get his #8s to receive outside of the block, like this? (Palmer far side)
The reason I ask this, is because I think while this has logic I'll explain in a second, it means Chelsea are looking a bit toothless in the final third...
Here are Chelsea's ball touches in the opening 20 minutes ⚽️
You're smart, you don't need me to tell you there's a gaping hole in the middle of the final third. AKA: Basically the best area to create chances from.
So why is that?
Well, let me explain in a video.
🔵 Why Chelsea's build-up is smart, but they're still not getting the ball into dangerous areas...
This was a lot to pack in, so may be hard to follow. Don't feel stupid asking for clarification if you got a bit lost x
I'm basically certain that every single pass Enzo Fernandez has made in this position has gone backwards/sideways.
And hey, I really really like Enzo Fernandez!
The Enzo I know is someone who would be a little braver firing the passes through from these positions. Maybe it's confidence I guess.
Still, he doesn't offer athletic/one-vs-one threat in these positions, which is a bit of a hinderance
And what I said in the video about Madueke/Palmer footedness is excellently proven here.
Palmer (my word what a player) has dropped wide, and fires an inch-perfect pass through into Madueke, who is about to make his first touch...
And of course, because he is left-footed, you can't help that so much, his instinct is to slow it down so he can cut inside - maybe he doesn't spot it, but Jackson is making a great run to the back post!😅
This ended up in a goal kick
I did hint I would be critical in this thread, but I should say I am broadly impressed by this Chelsea side. I think the back three (in-possession) especially have been top.
Here's Colwill finding about his fourth line-breaking pass directly through the middle of the block.
This was a rare occasion of Palmer receiving centrally too. If he wasn't tactically fouled, then I wonder what could have happened here. Much more of a menacing situation.
On a similar note, Enzo Fernandez has been pretty impactful defensively for me - something I didn't expect to say.
Fotmob suggest during this game he:
🔹 Won 4/8 ground duels
🔹 Won 1/3 aerial duels
I think on the aerials, he is consistently putting off the opponent
Maybe he can play in the pivot alongside Caicedo?
For games like these (it would be bold) you play just Cucurella, Colwill and Fofana - with Caicedo and Enzo in the pivot - and have Madueke tracking back oop to form a back four
Well probably Gusto over Cucurella because wow he is magic
Not really commented on Sancho. I think he has slowed the game down unnecessarily at times and isn't getting the better of Aina enough. However, lovely pass through here.
Another example of the Palmer x Madueke issues - being they both want to get into the same spaces, cutting onto their left foot.
I'm being nitpicky. However, Chelsea look GOOD. It's just that, if you can nail these things, then you're a side that might be able to consistently break down strong defences like Forest's.
That's the difference between a T4 side and one competing for a title.
Well, top 6 side, let's not get carried away
Side note: I've heard lots of good things about Murillo for Forest but he's had a hand in basically every big chance for Chelsea.
First half done, think the stats are fair.
- Chelsea the more dangerous side going forward
- Largely kept Forest quiet
- Both sides struggling to create big chances
Think if you're Maresca at this point, you consider switching Palmer and Enzo Fernandez to get a L&R footer on each wing.
For me, I'm going to try and focus more on Chelsea defensively in this second half and provide analysis on that.
Alright, we back. I had a break (definitely didn't get distracted trying to build a new ultimate team).
First note: Sanchez, why do you feel the need to throw this when Jackson is surrounded by three players
And wow, this is where the goal comes from!
GOAL (49) Chris Wood
Jackson gave away a free kick. You guys know I don't tend to specialise in set piece analysis (to put it shortly).
However...feels like quite a high defensive line, no?
Also, it's so high, wtf is Sanchez doing! If that's me in goal, I'm sticking close to the goalline. The balls going to land around the edge of the box, you're legally unable to handle it at that point.
It means he's only just getting resettled in position for when the knockdown comes, and the finish
Anyway, I think Maresca identified the lack of central touches. Look at this.
🔹Palmer receives out wide
🔹Madueke then shifts inside
🔹And receives it once Jackson bounces it to him
This is a much more threatening situation that two players sitting on the touchline
GOAL (58) Madueke
Pretty simple this one. Palmer floats inside while the ball is on the left, taking up a very nice position.
Could argue that Gusto is attracting JWP too, which opens up the space for Palmer.
Enzo finds him pretty smoothly, and Forest are in big trouble. This is also a good example of Palmer and Madueke occupying different space!
Now you might think the rest is just down to Noni Madueke.
Well, you wouldn't be too wrong. However! Worth praising Palmer for holding his position on the edge of the box, which means JWP can't come across to cover Madueke. This helps create the channel through which he shoots.
Man, Gusto is a diamond talent. This entire game he's been 💯 with his positioning, and movement. He was always pretty good, but credit has to go to Maresca and his staff for his performances in this role.
It's simple stuff like this - the pass doesn't actually come off here - but the movement to lure his marker a *bit* more centrally, opening up that little bit more room for Fofana to exploit. It's top.
I did say I'd focus on the out of possession stuff, but that has been tricky when Chelsea are dominating and Forest are hitting long.
However, something that has surprised me is how, safe, Chelsea have looked in transition.
In this sequence for example, Enzo has a bozo moment and gives it away on the edge of the box after a corner. Disaster. It's an immediate 3v3.
Yes, it's far away from the goal, but Forest are a team of killers in transition.
And yet...the positioning of the defenders (In this case, Caicedo and Gusto), is good. They stay close, they're central and tracking the runner. It's been pretty tight all game.
When Forest switch it, the back two don't jump, and they hold their line well. Meanwhile, every Chelsea player is tracking back hard nearly 70 minutes into the game.
Meaning Forest's counter-attack becomes...this. Chelsea end up dealing with it well.
Could Forest have been punishing? Probably. However, I remember Pochettino's Chelsea getting torn again and again and again and again and again during transition.
Take out the goal, which was from a set piece, and Forest have put up around 0.8 xGoT.
And wow, that counter is basically the last notable event of the game until JWP's sending off. Well, time to close out!
Honestly, I was expecting Chelsea to be worse in this game. I'd heard quite bad things, and it was a 1-1 draw at home against a low block side. Was expecting Chelsea to be fairly rigid, lacking creativity and threat.
I'm....pretty positive after watching that! Not just on Chelsea's chances of having a good season, I've consistently thought that anyway. But, positive on Maresca as a coach.
✅ Malo Gusto, Cole Palmer, and Levi Colwill are all showing characteristics I didn't see last season. Their decision-making in possession has impressed me, and it looks like stuff that's been worked on in training.
✅ While I did think the tactical setup was flawed, the second half showed signs that Maresca had spotted the problem. Also, it wasn't bad, it just wasn't working due to the personnel Chelsea had.
✅ I'm not sure Forest posed a large threat, but like I said, I'm encouraged at how comfortable Chelsea looked during transition. I expected a lot worse.
The main caveat that I have in my head is:
Chelsea's squad is really, really good. So, it's hard to discern what's the thoughts/instinct of extremely talented players (see Sancho) and what's the work of a top coach. It's obviously a mix, but how much of a mix is what we don't know.
Right now though, if you were to ask me about my prediction earlier, I'd still say Chelsea are due to struggle when more teams give them the respect and sit deep.
However, I feel a bit more optimistic for Maresca that he'll find his way through that phase. When I watched his late-season Leicester side, I saw a really rigid team that didn't really have sustainable ways of creating dangerous chances. That wasn't really what I saw in this game 👍
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Chelsea did not have a good weekend, and their start to the season has been mixed...
I watched all of their games so far: Here's what I think Maresca is trying to do, what's working (more than you think!), and what's not 👍
The plan 📋
We can split defending into what Chelsea do with, and without the ball. Starting with the in-possession stuff, which is more fun...
Last season, Chelsea could often look quite rigid against low blocks. I think Maresca's response to this has been to adopt more fluidity like PSG, basically allowing his forward players to have more freedom on the ball.
Here's what I think that looks like *roughly*
▪️RW (Estevao, Palmer) floating inside, while Gusto pushes on
▪️Fernandez pushing forward on either side of midfield
▪️LB pushing inside, allowing Gittens/Neto space on the touchline - but also has freedom to overlap too
▪️Caicedo anchoring things at the back
You can call this a 3-1-6, but I think that's an oversimplification and a poor way of looking at it.
Not least because Chelsea are a lot more fluid, but the point of this setup is that Chelsea's midfielders have the freedom to drop in and across the pitch. The defenders have also been given licence to run forward too.
Now, the plus of this is that Chelsea are obviously much more dangerous going forward. Their NPxG this season is high - even including the MUFC game, they rank 4th for that metric, higher than Arsenal Liverpool and Spurs 👍
The consequence though, is that when they lose the ball, there's a large burden on their defenders + Caicedo to quickly snuff out attacks.
Spurs have suffered their first defeat of the PL season. But, despite the good start, the Bournemouth game highlighted some issues...
Here's a look at Spurs' attack under Thomas Frank 🔎
RHS reliance ➡️
Iraola's side based their entire press around forcing Spurs to play football through the left. Iraola clearly knew how limited they were there, compared to the right, so all of their players made sure to shape Spurs down their weak side.h
Every single Spurs goal in the Premier League, so far, has originated from their right hand side.
Now, on the one hand, that shows how well Pedro Porro and Mohamed Kudus are getting on as individuals.
However, I think it also shows two other things:
▪️That Spurs LHS has struggled
▪️ And their RHS is thriving mainly just down to the individuals
Let's start with the left, as it should (hopefully) be resolved soon.
In Djed Spence and Brennan Johnson, Spurs haven't had a left footer on that side so far. Nearly every time Spence has received the ball, he's ended up passing backwards. That's because it's not as natural for him to turn, and play a pass down the line with his left.
Johnson, meanwhile, has attempted three dribbles so far without succeeding in any. He looks painfully ineffective off the left.
This should, in theory, be resolved by the return of Udogie, and the arrival of Simons though. Simons may well play as a 10, but he also likes to drift out to the left and take players on. It should balance Spurs out going forward 👍
Still, I do feel like Frank hasn't really done much to make the LHS work so far.
Sure, you can say it's just down to waiting for the right players to arrive. But it's not like Spurs have tried to surround Spence or Johnson with players to build combinations. They've left them isolated, which only exposes their awkwardness on that side.
And this was best shown against Bournemouth.
Iraola's side based their entire press around forcing Spurs to play football through the left. Iraola clearly knew how limited they were there, compared to the right, so all of their players made sure to shape Spurs down their weak side.
In this game, Porro got just 45 touches, down from 66 against City.
This is something @htomufc noted too.
But what of their right side?
Okay, there is stuff to like 😆
Frank's tactics are based around building up through a deep back four, with Porro given enough space to get his head up and play channel balls. Porro excels at playing this pass, so it's a good idea to create opportunities for him to play that pass.
It also helps that the man he's playing those passes to, Mohamed Kudus, has been exceptional so far. Not necessarily in terms of goal output, but in:
▪️receiving the ball as a wide target man
▪️ and dragging Spurs forward
For the former, Kudus is capable of backing into defenders and bringing down high balls with confidence. He's just a really strong footballer, and it's a crucial part of the Porro-channel-ball strategy working.
The second part is down to Kudus' quality 1v1.
Take this sequence against Bournemouth as an example. Kudus starts inside his own half, takes it past two players, dodges another incoming challenge and reaches their penalty box.
When I was planning my Sensible Transfers video for Crystal Palace, and I came very close to picking Haraldsson as their right-sided 10.
Here's why I liked him enough to consider, and what he can polish this season to reach the PL ⭐️
History + Profile 📖
Haraldsson joined Lille in 2023 from FC Copenhagen, where he made his breakthrough in Europe after moving from Iceland.
Being a big Ligue 1 nerd, I've watched Haraldsson pretty closely since joining. A young No 10 that Lille have bought? Must be good 🤷♂️
Yet, Haraldsson is yet to establish himself as a first-choice starter. His starts run as:
▪️2023-24: 15 starts, with 2 G/A
▪️2024-25: 21 starts, with 8 G/A
So, last season definitely saw an improvement RE minutes as well as goal contributions, but he's still not there yet.
Now, part of that is circumstantial. Haraldsson suffered a broken foot in international training in September 2024, and missed two months of the season. From what I can gather, he took a while to regain fitness after this.
However, there are other areas where Haraldsson has taken time to adapt. One of those I read from Bruno Genesio was language, with Haraldsson struggling at first in a new country.
Another, on the pitch, was blindingly obvious: physicality😕
We'll break this down properly later (surprise, in the negatives section), but when he first arrived Haraldsson could get physically dominated pretty easily. Over the last year though, I'd say he's bulked up a bit, and looks stronger.
So, hopefully that paints a picture of life at Lille so far. Let's talk profile then.
▪️ Haraldsson is right-footed, but capable of shooting on his left
▪️ He's small, around 5ft 10
▪️ He's quite quick off the mark
Basically, he's a nippy No 10 and you can fit him in across the pitch. In fact, under Paulo Fonseca in his first season, he played mainly off the left wing.
Under Bruno Genesio however, Haraldsson was fielded as an 10 and even started games on the right. And as an 10, he's sometimes allowed to drop deep to help in build-up, or pushed forwards to play like a Shadow Striker.
He's a very flexible player, and a huge part of the reason why you can play him across the front line, is intelligence.
Positives 🟢
Haraldsson does plenty of the things you want from your No 10 without the ball.
There's his scanning, which I think is some of the best I've seen in scouting players this summer. Not only does he consistently check his shoulders, so he's aware of his surroundings, but his checks are done extremely quickly. He can scan both shoulders within the space of a second.
Then, there are also two sides to his movement.
The first is that he's pretty good at holding his position between the lines. He won't directly drop in to receive the ball, but just try and get into a nice pocket of space to eventually receive it.
What I think is more fun though, is how he attacks the box ⬆️
I mentioned Genesio plays Haraldsson as a Shadow Striker, and I can see why. Haraldsson is great at spotting gaps in defensive lines and exploiting them, he's incredibly dangerous as someone crashing the box.
That counts for both
🏃♂️ Running beyond the striker, and going through on goal
🧠 Or getting into a good position to receive a cross/cutback
There's end product to match this movement too, with five goals in the league last season.
I do think his shooting is a little mixed, as he is capable of some pretty poorly executed shots. However, Haraldsson's main technique is shooting hard across goal into the far corner. He's done this well on both left and right foot.
The power he can get on shots is pretty impressive, and it makes me think that if he can refine his shooting, he could become a pretty productive player from both short and long range.
In truth, I think this mixed-positivity can be applied to all of his technical qualities.
His passing, for example, hasn't got him much in the way of assists or expected assists. But I find that surprising, because Haraldsson is capable of threading passes between defenders into the path of team mates.
I want to emphasise that last point; I love how consistently Haraldsson aims his passes beyond the receiver, allowing them to continue their momentum.
And like I said, this wouldn't be possible without pretty strong passing vision. He's willing to play passes directly into the box, and will search for opportunities to do so.
Also, Haraldsson is a good passer over long distances, and a decent crosser. He takes set pieces for Lille, as he can play this nice wrapped-right-footed cross that has enough curl to make it difficult to defend.
----
It would be impossible to talk about Haraldsson's positives and not mention his agility.
The 22-year-old can stop/change direction incredibly easily. He boasts excellent balance, and tight close control.
As a result, you should just never dive into a tackle on Haraldsson, because he'll skip past at ease. He's too skillfull, too quick, and good enough to read body language that it's always better to hold your ground.
There's more reasons why it's better to hold your ground defending against Haraldsson, which we can get into now...
"Why hasn't anyone signed Xavi Simons! He's amazing!"
Here's a thread on why I think Xavi Simons hasn't been signed yet. In short:
🔴His weaknesses make him an awkward positional fit
👀But I still really love him!
Profile 📖
No history?
These threads are meant to be digestible, and they've recently been hitting 15,000 characters (sorry). So, in this section, we're not going to delve too much about Simons' background, and just about how he's been used at RB Leipzig.
---
Now, the 22-year-old did get an injury last season, so the following words reflect his position over the last two seasons.
RB Leipzig, under Marco Rose (in charge for the majority of Simons' time), have switched between a 4-4-2 and a 3-4-3 system.
Either way, Leipzig want to attack quickly, mainly through short passes, so Simons often leads fast breaks, driving with the ball through the middle. A context that can be replicated at many teams.
But, let's talk about more settled possession 🧐
The former system, the 4-4-2, is definitely the one Simons has played the most football in. He has started as a LM, but really, a LAM. He has a free role to drift across the pitch, both horizontally and vertically.
For example, during early build-up, you might see Simons:
▪️Receive out wide around the halfway line, with a full-back right behind him
▪️ Drift behind the opposition midfield, looking to eventually receive the ball between the lines
▪️ Drop deep, almost like a double pivot, playing a one-two with his centre-back and looking to race into the space he just created behind him
▪️ Or, drifting all the way over to the right! (This is rarer though)
In general, I think you can describe Simons as a ball-to-feet player. He wants to be driving towards defenders, making the final pass or taking a shot from outside of the box. A true number 10, in a way! 🔟
That said, he can do this in wide areas. He's not uncomfortable on the touchline. Wouldn't describe him as a winger though, for reasons we'll get into...
The final point on his profile I'll mention, is that at Leipzig, he's obviously expected to work hard off the ball. At around 5ft7, he isn't the strongest player, so he tends to focus on pressing full-backs.
Basically: behaves like a midfielder in possession, but defends like a winger.
That should be enough preparation to dive into the deep end of the positives!
Positives 🟢
I had to give myself a couple of hours break before writing this, after finishing my Simons watch. I love watching him so, so much - that I knew this would be wayyyy too rose-tinted if I dived in straight away 😂
And, you know what, that was worth it.
Because even Simons' biggest strengths do come with a consistent caveat...
Still, let's start in the pure, positive areas. Agility, balance, body positioning being one. That's a lot of buzzwords, but basically, Simons is just incredibly hard to read when he has the ball.
He can change his body position as fast as anyone I think I've seen, going from "I'm going to cut inside here", to "no I'm running down the line" in an insanely quick time. I've not seen a player in ages do a Cruyff turn as sharply as Simons 🏃♂️e
This means he can weave through challenges incredibly easily, like he's working at a different speed to defenders.
It also helps he has this excellent burst of acceleration, and that's not just from a standing start. He'll often be carrying the ball towards goal, then switch into a faster gear to drive through a gap.
This counts for his final action too, as he'll disguise his direction of pass through body position. Shaping to switch it, but reversing it and playing it in behind instead.
Now, another pure positive: movement/receiving ✍️
Simons went to La Masia, and it really shows. He's not just a sharp, skilful player, but a really intelligent one.
A lot of it comes down to scanning. Simons is consistently aware of his passing options, his marker's position, and how much space he has.
Now, throw in the fact he can play clever flicks and backheels, and you have a very dangerous player to allow to receive the ball. He can:
▪️ Draw his marker in and flick it off to a team mate
▪️ Quickly turn and play a forward pass
▪️ Or, and my favourite: drop into to receive, play it back to the passer, spin in behind into the space and receive once more. Pass and move, pass and move.
Whatever the case, everything Simons does is quick. He's a dream in midfield to build combinations, occupy space, pull markers around, etc.
-----
Okay, we're now moving onto flawed positives. And, 'flawed', is a touch mean.
Basically, Simons has a heavy bias towards using his right foot.
I don't think it's because he's 'bad' on his left foot, he just prefers to use his right for passing, dribbling, and shooting.
I'm not sure I'd describe him as 'one-footed', because he's shown the ability to take a ball in his stride on his weaker foot. But, like I said, he clearly just trusts himself under pressure more on his right foot.
However, this does have knock-on effects for two of his biggest strengths: passing, and dribbling 😅
Let's start on the former, because as I suggested before, Simons is a very intelligent player. His vision is superb, not just for short-range passes but also balls in behind.
And, may I say too, his passing is incredibly satisfying to watch. Not only does he consistently aim it in front of players, making sure they're able to run onto the ball and continue their momentum...But, his weight is nearly *always* superb, never overhitting it or underhitting it ⚽️
There's a range of technique used too. Simons can hit these heavy drives across the pitch, or these cheeky trivelas round the corner of the defender.
However, I think those trivelas too often act as a substitute for a left-footed pass. There have been occasions where Simons is:
1⃣ On the LW
2⃣ Sesko is making a curved run in behind
3⃣ Simons uses the outside of his foot to play the pass
4⃣ The ball falls a little short, not hit with the power a left-footer could have got on the inside of their foot
This is something that holds Simons back compared to more two-footed midfielders. It's minor in the grand scheme of things, because Simons puts up world class expected assists numbers.
But in central areas, you ideally want your midfielder to access all angles. Simons, can't, a lot of the time.
Let's talk about his dribbling, which I think suffers a tad more than his passing. (Still, it's overall a positive 🟢)
Simons is capable of using his left foot for a first touch, but after that, it's alllll right foot for moving the ball forward.
Now, again, Simons can be an excellent dribbler. That agility helps a lot, but more than anything, Simons is just incredibly skilful. So many tricks in his arsenal, and quick reactions. I trust him to dribble through crowds in the middle
However, out wide, he almost never dribbles on the outside. Even though he's good at hiding his intention, ultimately, Simons nearly always wants to cut inside onto his right foot.
It means, in wide areas, he can be a tad predictable. So if you're a team looking for a winger, then you might be put off by Simons' one-footedness.
Now, that said, I do adore him in central areas. His dribble success rate has fallen off a lot this season, and I do think he could protect the ball better. He often doesn't keep himself between ball and defender.
However, I do think much of the decline is related to A). Leipzig being worse last season, leaving Simons with more work to do. B). Simons trying to dribble through central areas more.
This will lead to him losing the ball, but he can make it work. And, when he does, he is capable of driving straight through the heart of a team 😍
Okay, so, let's have a quick recap.
▪️ In terms of dribbling, Simons probably suits central areas more.
▪️ In terms of passing, creative actions, his angles can be a little limited in the middle, and would probably suit a wider position.
Clearly, there's a bit of a clash here. So, let's see if we can determine where Simons would work best by discussing his weaknesses.
Sooner or later, there's bound to be a bid lodged for Brighton's latest No 6 off their conveyor belt of talent. But, how well do you actually know Baleba?
Here's some detail on what's great about him, and how ready he is for the elite level ✍️
History + Profile 📖
Baleba is still a relative newcomer to senior football. He was snatched from Lille before even making 7 Ligue 1 starts two years ago!
He doubled that in his first season at Brighton under Roberto De Zerbi, but it was only last season where the 21-year-old became a full starter.
It's worth saying, that Brighton have changed approach both with and without the ball a lot this season under Fabian Hurzeler. Baleba has been part of a double pivot, played as a lone No 6, and even filled in as a CB...
Still, there has been some clear changes compared to RDZ. For example:
▪️ Brighton made around 50 touches less p90 in their own defensive third last season, showing a weaker emphasis on building out from the back.
▪️On top of that, they attempted more long passes.
This makes sense, as Hurzeler has wanted to access 4v4 scenarios more directly than RDZ, often bypassing midfield to do so.
These are pretty significant stylistic changes, and as a result, Baleba's output across the two seasons has changed.
▪️ He's gone from 66 touches p90 to 57, receiving the ball 10x less p90
▪️ A larger proportion of those touches are coming in the final third, and he's getting on the ball less often in the def third
▪️ Despite this, his progressive passes have increased
▪️ As have his progressive carries
On those latter two points, it's worth talking about how Baleba receives the ball ahead of a full nuanced breakdown.
You might think that it's No 6's job to drop in front of the defenders, receive the ball, and move it forward. Be that through turning their marker, or evading them to get into a good position to receive the ball from a CB.
Conversely, we sometimes consider midfielders who do not do that as 'bad' in football discourse. I still remember Fred/McTominay getting slammed for their lack of movement behind opposition pressers.
Now, I may just be speaking for myself here, but that's certainly the way I tended to view things. Which meant, until Jon Mackenzie banged my head a bit, I was underwhelmed by Baleba - because he is not dropping in a way you'd expect.
Think of it like this:
We think of No 6s being the 'second' man. CB passes to DM -> DM moves the ball forward to the third man.
Well, Baleba wants to be the third man.
So, when there's a marker infront of him, he'll hold position. The idea being...
1⃣ CB has the ball
2⃣ Guy in front of Baleba presses CB
3⃣ CB moves it out to LB
4⃣ LB passes inside to Baleba
5⃣ Baleba is now in a ton of space, free of his marker, and he can carry/pass forward
This is very nerdy stuff, especially for the history + profile section, but I wanted to get this context in early. It's hugely important to keep in mind, as we dive into the following sections.
Positives 🟢
Assuming you read the above (I hope you didn't skip ahead!), let's start the positive section with something a little less dense.
Baleba, is a lovely dribbler. He's quick off the mark, he's agile, he has pretty good physicality, and lovely footwork.
So, if you're a defender thinking you've trapped Baleba in a tight space, think again! He holds a 58% dribble success rate, which is strong ✅
*One note, Baleba does rely a lot on his left foot to carry, rather than his right. He can use his right foot, so I definitely wouldn't describe him as one-footed, but I do think he's a bit guilty of closing off his dribbling/passing angles.
Still, in terms of evading challenges, I think Baleba is really solid. Some may describe it as his best skill, as it helps him remain largely press-resistant.
Also, in terms of carrying, this is a useful trait given the space Baleba gets himself into as we detailed above, further forward into enemy lines.
Once he receives that pass, he can charge forward into space and drive Brighton up the pitch.
Still, I wouldn't actually describe this as the best part of his game; that's easily his defensive work.
I've actually found this pretty difficult to word, because Baleba is quite simply, just really really good at anticipating danger + timing his challenges. He uses his body really well to block challenges, places his feet well to win the ball...
It's all just very clean. We're years ahead of the time we used to reductively describe any players who completed lots of tackles and interceptions as simply 'good', but - I don't find it surprising Baleba ranks on FBref:
🟢 84th percentile for tackles vs dribblers
🟢 91st for interceptions
🟢 70th for tackles won
Bare in mind, that's on a team that held over 52% possession last season...
Also, like I said, he's very quick and pretty strong.
I mentioned before that he's a quick accelerator, but Baleba can maintain high speed over large distances.
I think all of this puts him into that very small category of midfielders who could play as a lone defensive No 6 👍
Now, let's talk about an area where Baleba does seem to rank poorly: passing.
I mentioned his progressive passes p90 had increased since last season, but Baleba still ranks as one of the least progressive midfielders in the Premier League.
So, what's going on?
Well, I think it simply comes down to volume.
As we mentioned, Baleba's job for Brighton isn't actually to progress the ball forward; quite often, it's to be the person receiving the ball in advanced positions.
That's why his touches in the final third have increased, his midfield touches stayed stable, and his def third touches declined.
Or in other words: in the first phase, it's Van Hecke's job to play progressive passes to Baleba or someone beyond him. Baleba focuses on getting into pockets of space to receive them.
However, when Baleba DOES get on the ball, facing a block...I actually think he's a pretty strong passer ✅
🟢His vision is pretty impressive, especially over long range. He's pretty reliable at spotting wingers making out-to-in runs
🟢 His execution is generally nice, with good clipped balls over the top, and powerfully hit passes through the middle. The latter really showed under RDZ
🟢 He tries to make first-time passes to keep up the tempo, especially after winning the ball back.
I agree with those that say he could do this more. I think he can be a little hesitant on the ball. Still, I rate him highly.
Here's a screenshot from @mygameplanai that shows his successful progressive passes that end in the centre third (🔵= ends in shot, 🟢 = ends in goal)
The thing I like about this is the range, as there's a mix of short to medium range balls coming from the sides, or straight down the middle.
I think there's quite a negative perception of Garnacho online, not just for off-field stuff, but for his actual ability.
However, when watching him across his time at United, I actually really liked what I saw...mostly 👀
History + Profile 📖
I'm not sure you need a full dive into Garnacho's history, as we've seen it in the Premier League in front of our eyes.
▪️He broke in to Manchester United's first team under Erik ten Hag
▪️ He played a bit-part role in the Dutchman's first season, making 19 league apps (mostly as a sub)
▪️That went up to 36 in 2023-24, including 30 starts, as Garnacho became an important player
▪️ He put up fewer starts, 23, in 2024-25
Perhaps this will go down badly, but I'd like to take a different look through this time, from the perspective of: just how hard has it been to perform in this Man Utd team? 🤔
So, what you need to know about him profile wise for now, is:
🔹 Garnacho prefers playing on the LW, cutting in on his right, but is still pretty good on his left
🔹 He's fast, agile, thrives in transition
🔹 Good at linking up for one-twos
🔹He's not particularly strong, and can get bulldozed with his back to goal
🔹Finally, he thrives with an overlapping FB, because he tends to drive inside (not cut), leaving space for the overlap. He tends to weight the passes to them pretty well.
I know he hasn't played these passes as much recently, but this is DEFINITELY a positive thing seen in earlier footage, I'll die on that hill.
Anyway, let's take another look then, at the past two seasons in Manchester 🔴
2023-24:
This is Man Utd's worst season in the Premier League era, so already, not the best place to bring in talent.
Garnacho does get platformed in a decent way, as he's able to cut in on the LW, his preferred position.
However, Man Utd have a problem: their RW position. Antony isn't playing well, Amad doesn't get brought in until near the end of the season, which means that Garnacho ends up getting shifted to the right.
This isn't the end of the world, and to his testement, Garnacho does perform pretty well on this side. However, it's still unnatural for him, he wants to cut in on his right but is having to do so on his left instead.
That's not the only issue though, because when Garnacho does get minutes back on the left, he's not supported particularly well from his FB.
This is because, in Tyrell Malacia and Luke Shaw, Man Utd basically didn't have a left-back from August 2023 until January 2025, when they signed Patrick Dorgu.
So, remember me saying Garnacho's showed positive signs of linking up with an overlapping FB?
Well, this was quite often the result in this time:
▪️ Garnacho receives the ball out wide, drives through space into the middle
▪️He lures the opposition RB inside towards him, and there's a gap left
▪️ Man Utd's LB makes a run, inbetween the boundaries of the edge of the box and the goal
▪️Garnacho plays a pass between the RB and RCB, into the path of this LB
▪️ It's a well-weighted pass, it's a great opportunity for them to play a cross or cut the ball back
▪️ Unfortunately, this isn't Luke Shaw, it's Diogo Dalot playing on the wrong side. He tries to cross on his left foot, it's bad, and it goes out for a goal kick.
That wasn't a theoretical situation, this was something I noted down on more than one occasion in 2023-24 and the beginning of 2024-25.
Speaking of which...
2024-25:
This is Man Utd's worst season in the Premier League era, so already, not the best place to platform talent.
Of course, the defining feature of last campaign was the managerial change from Erik ten Hag to Ruben Amorim.
Now, Amorim's issues have been VERY well documented. We've also already covered the LB problem - Dalot still goes on to play around 1.7k minutes at LB/LWB in 2024-25.
However, perhaps something you haven't thought about is how Garnacho got shifted around, again.
Let's focus back on the early part of my profile. He's someone who likes to connect with teammates in one-twos, then run into space.
That works as a winger, because you often have a LCM and a ST to connect with, as well as a LB overlapping.
As a No 10 in a 3-4-3 however, you effectively shift into one of the more advanced positions on the pitch. This means, for Garnacho:
▪️ He's now receiving with his back to goal
▪️ He's duelling with CBs rather than RBs
▪️ He's often got limited forward passing options
▪️There's often less space for him to exploit
It may not *seem* like a huge change, especially as he likes to drift inside anyway. But, the starting position means a lot here. It's not surprising that as the season went on, Amorim started allowing Garnacho to take up wider positions in this role, with the LWB often coming inside.
Still, EVEN if you think this is rubbish and he shouldn't be defended in this way due to the context of the team...He's contributed to 48 goals and assists in 148 appearances for Man Utd.
How much higher might that tally have been if he:
A). Consistently played on the left
B). Consistently had a top LB overlapping
C). Consistently played in the same system
Also, a reminder: he's still 20 years old. There are definitely negatives to discuss, but let's continue the positivity...
Positives 🟢
Going to make camp on a hill that I'm willing to die on here: I think Garnacho isn't just passable defensively, I think he's actually very, very underrated.
He seems to have a reputation of being a poor worker, someone with a bad attitude, something that's no doubt bled in from discussions about his off-pitch behaviour.
However, when it comes to defending from the front, I'm not having it. Garnacho ranked as one of the best wingers in the PL for possession gains in the final third last season through data with @mygameplanai , in that Man Utd side. Not aimless pressures - possession gains.
Some more detailed notes:
🟢Garnacho looks to adapt the shape of his run to close options off
🟢There's genuinely good intensity due to the speed he accelerates
🟢 He's generally aware enough to change position for an interception
It's not just the effort going forwards, it's tracking back too. I noted him looking around during transitions, seeing who he could pick up.
The only thing I had negative here was a bit of overaggressiveness. Which is, fine, he's 20.
Look, I'm sure this can be quoted with clips or comps of bad moments. I imagine particularly so in recent months. But, as someone who - in prep for this - watched a lot of matches before the Amorim era, I feel pretty positive on this.
Anyway, as I mentioned, I think Garnacho's defensive work often shines due to his pace.
He's got a really good burst of speed, and can maintain top speed over really long distances. Garnacho is capable of running 50m and still outpacing defenders 🏃♂️
That applies to changing direction too, as I think Garnacho is pretty agile. He can spin/twist quickly, and is very fluid on the ball.
This not only helps him defensively, but it pairs excellently with Garnacho's attacking movement. And oh boy, is this aspect of his game underrated.
Underrated by me in fact. I failed to include it in my video about him recently, because I just didn't have space. Let's right that wrong.
Garnacho, quite simply, is very eager to attack space in behind. Whether thats:
🟢 Running behind a FB out to in
🟢 Running between CB and FB through the middle
🟢 Attacking the back post as a far-side threat
It's all there. And it's not just the intelligence to recognise when these opportunities come up, after all that's not incredibly hard. It's that he knows how to make these runs impactful.
For example: Garnacho will look to aim for the blindside of the defender, and he'll change direction throughout. He maintains distance well, not letting the defender keep contact.
My friend @amonizfootball mentioned to me in DMs when I was prepping for the video, that it's this part of Garnacho's game that explains why his xG is so high. I completely agree. Put Garnacho in a functioning attacking side and I think the goals go right up 📈
It's not just scoring goals though that I think would improve in another side, it's assisting them.
I would NOT go as far as to say, Garnacho is 'two-footed'. Just because, for me, that should be reserved for the likes of Cherki (extreme example but, ya get me).
However, I do think Garnacho is very capable on his weak foot, particularly for cut backs. In other words, he's capable of hitting the byline, and pulling balls back into dangerous areas with good weight + no bounce, and decent accuracy.
If anything, his right-footed inswinging crosses need more work. He seems to vary a lot more in success on them, struggling to beat the first man.
That's not the case on his shooting though. From range, I think Garnacho could be a threat for years to come.
Quite simply, I think this comes down to power. Garnacho can rifle shots at very high speeds.
The accuracy, does range. But, as a 20-year-old, to have two outside of the box goals in the league last season is promising stuff.
I think that number will tick up if he can consistently hit the target more often. He tends to focus on power over accuracy, or at least, struggles to place his shots. Maybe that doesn't improve enough of course, but if it does, that's a dangerous goal threat right there.
It's worth saying too, that he shows good power on his left foot from range. Not as impressive as his right, but it's another rare trait that will attract clubs. It means, when running through, he's dangerous at hitting the far corner, across goal, with his left foot 👍
Anyway, that was one of the longest positive sections for a while. The negatives are overdue.