In emerging blockchain ecosystems, religious energy is a powerful leading indicator of success.
Well-crafted narratives act like temporal magnets, drawing future resources into the present, making extraordinary outcomes almost self-fulfilling.
In essence, Soros’ reflexivity manifesting in the cryptoeconomy — where belief attracts ideologically driven builders and diamond-handed investors in a self-reinforcing loop, turning imperfect projects into long-term winners.
All that’s needed at first, to spark a new “religion” is a kernel of truth — a North Star that stirs a visceral response, and a new developer sandbox that pushes the boundaries of what’s possible.
For Ethereum, it was the promise of decentralized applications and the advent of smart contracts.
For Solana, it was the vision of a decentralized Nasdaq, delivered through a high-performance, parallelized system.
Today I see two ecosystems brewing with similar religious energy that I once saw in Ethereum and Solana: Bittensor (TAO) and Celestia (TIA).
Bittensor promises a future of decentralized AI. Its permissionless subnet architecture and block reward system programmatically incentivizes the creation of digital commodities for AI applications. The potential? The largest DePIN program ever, which when combined with upcoming smart contracts, could create a full-stack decentralized AI platform (i.e an AI L1).
Celestia promises a future of sovereign applications. Its modular architecture enables fully customizable, natively interoperable rollups that effectively scale with demand. Its data-sampling light nodes unlock unprecedented economies of scale, overcoming the anti-network effects that plague traditional blockchains. The potential? A flourishing ecosystem of composable chains, powering hyper-scale decentralized applications.
Today the hurdle is extremely high for a new ecosystem to breach into the pantheon of generational blockchains which includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, and now Solana. I’m skeptical many more will earn a spot at the top if any. It will likely take another bear market to figure out for sure. But if I had to bet, and I am to be clear, I’m betting on TAO and TIA.
Will infrastructure multiples compress over time and app multiples rise?
We at Syncracy believe that apps capturing a greater share of the global blockchain fee pool and outearning most infrastructure is likely an inflection point for the reckoning that’s to come.
Over the past year Syncracy accumulated a large position in MKR.
We believe Maker could command a $40+ billion valuation this cycle given its vital role in financing Ethereum’s economy — a multi-billion dollar fee opportunity.
Our thesis on Maker in the Endgame Era.
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Maker is the leading decentralized bank in the cryptoeconomy.
At ~2x 2025E revenue, we believe Maker is one of the best risk / reward opportunities today given its industry leading earnings, best-in-class unit economics, and growing market dominance.
Maker is a leviathan amongst the leaders, capturing nearly 40% of all DeFi profits on Ethereum.
Its competitive advantage is centered around its currency Dai —the most widely used decentralized stablecoin in the industry with its deep liquidity, integrations, and track record.
In Q2 2023, Syncracy built a large position in SOL.
The opportunity Solana offers is rare – a truly differentiated technical architecture that has the potential to become foundational alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Our thesis on Solana and the future of the cryptoeconomy.
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Blockchains have trade-offs.
Despite extreme power law dynamics in the smart contract platform market, this reality creates a large opportunity for Solana.
Solana can eat Ethereum's dominance through offering a highly differentiated integrated solution.
We believe Solana’s integrated design offers a structurally simpler and more cost-efficient development environment compared to modular stacks, positioning Solana to win a larger share of the cryptoeconomy’s developer base in the coming years.