Ryan Watkins Profile picture
Oct 14 2 tweets 2 min read Read on X
In emerging blockchain ecosystems, religious energy is a powerful leading indicator of success.

Well-crafted narratives act like temporal magnets, drawing future resources into the present, making extraordinary outcomes almost self-fulfilling.

In essence, Soros’ reflexivity manifesting in the cryptoeconomy — where belief attracts ideologically driven builders and diamond-handed investors in a self-reinforcing loop, turning imperfect projects into long-term winners.

All that’s needed at first, to spark a new “religion” is a kernel of truth — a North Star that stirs a visceral response, and a new developer sandbox that pushes the boundaries of what’s possible.

For Ethereum, it was the promise of decentralized applications and the advent of smart contracts.

For Solana, it was the vision of a decentralized Nasdaq, delivered through a high-performance, parallelized system.

Today I see two ecosystems brewing with similar religious energy that I once saw in Ethereum and Solana: Bittensor (TAO) and Celestia (TIA).

Bittensor promises a future of decentralized AI. Its permissionless subnet architecture and block reward system programmatically incentivizes the creation of digital commodities for AI applications. The potential? The largest DePIN program ever, which when combined with upcoming smart contracts, could create a full-stack decentralized AI platform (i.e an AI L1).

Celestia promises a future of sovereign applications. Its modular architecture enables fully customizable, natively interoperable rollups that effectively scale with demand. Its data-sampling light nodes unlock unprecedented economies of scale, overcoming the anti-network effects that plague traditional blockchains. The potential? A flourishing ecosystem of composable chains, powering hyper-scale decentralized applications.

Today the hurdle is extremely high for a new ecosystem to breach into the pantheon of generational blockchains which includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, and now Solana. I’m skeptical many more will earn a spot at the top if any. It will likely take another bear market to figure out for sure. But if I had to bet, and I am to be clear, I’m betting on TAO and TIA.

NFA.Image
Study the power of narratives.

kwokchain.com/2021/09/29/nar…

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More from @RyanWatkins_

Oct 8
Applications on Ethereum and Solana are on the verge of flipping their underlying infrastructure in revenue.

What does this mean for the future of value capture in the cryptoeconomy? Image
Contrary to popular belief, the age of the applications is upon us.

There are now plenty of apps generating 8-9 figures in revenue.

Still, apps continue to trade at huge discounts to infrastructure, which on average trade at ~300x higher multiples.

syncracy.io/writing/applic…
Will infrastructure multiples compress over time and app multiples rise?

We at Syncracy believe that apps capturing a greater share of the global blockchain fee pool and outearning most infrastructure is likely an inflection point for the reckoning that’s to come. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 19
The era of brain dead private → public token arbitrage is coming to an end.

We simply don’t need more useless infra + tokens while there’s clear secular winners emerging across the cryptoeconomy.

In time the market structure will shift to reflect this.

The frontier is liquid.
Venture strategies will still thrive, but returns will be harder won.

The dispersion of returns between the best and worst will likely increase from here.
Similarly early stage infrastructure investments could still perform well, but will likely require more selectiveness on the part of managers.

You can no longer buy random L1/L2s at 9 figure valuations and expect to dump on retail.

Perhaps applications are next up.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 25
Over the past year Syncracy accumulated a large position in MKR.

We believe Maker could command a $40+ billion valuation this cycle given its vital role in financing Ethereum’s economy — a multi-billion dollar fee opportunity.

Our thesis on Maker in the Endgame Era.

1/ Image
Maker is the leading decentralized bank in the cryptoeconomy.

At ~2x 2025E revenue, we believe Maker is one of the best risk / reward opportunities today given its industry leading earnings, best-in-class unit economics, and growing market dominance. 

syncracy.io/writing/makerd…
Maker is a leviathan amongst the leaders, capturing nearly 40% of all DeFi profits on Ethereum.

Its competitive advantage is centered around its currency Dai —the most widely used decentralized stablecoin in the industry with its deep liquidity, integrations, and track record. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 3
Memecoin mania is the closest thing we’ve seen to the 2017 ICO bubble.

Difference is no one is even pretending they’re launching or buying anything valuable — bar is as low as it’s ever been.

Memecoins are the purest expression of greed and entertainment crypto’s ever created.
Equally as interesting is how much mindshare memecoins command despite the sector still being incredibly small (and retail).

Most memecoins are micro / small caps, yet are reported on as if they’re actually indicative of what’s going on in the broader cryptoeconomy.
The most obvious winner of all this is SOL as it’s the base pair for the majority of memecoins retail is trading nowadays.

Just like how ETH was required to participate in ICOs, SOL today has the same flywheel.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7, 2023
In Q2 2023, Syncracy built a large position in SOL.

The opportunity Solana offers is rare – a truly differentiated technical architecture that has the potential to become foundational alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Our thesis on Solana and the future of the cryptoeconomy.

1/ Image
Blockchains have trade-offs.

Despite extreme power law dynamics in the smart contract platform market, this reality creates a large opportunity for Solana.

Solana can eat Ethereum's dominance through offering a highly differentiated integrated solution.

syncracy.io/writing/solana…
Trade-offs create path dependence.

We believe Solana’s integrated design offers a structurally simpler and more cost-efficient development environment compared to modular stacks, positioning Solana to win a larger share of the cryptoeconomy’s developer base in the coming years. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 12, 2023
In 2022 a nuclear bomb hit the cryptoeconomy — where do we go from here?

A year’s worth of thoughts and reflections on the past, present, and future of crypto.

syncracy.io/writing/writin…
Special thanks to @SyncracyCapital team as well as @riabhutoria, @jonmoore202, and @divine_economy for review and conversations that shaped this essay.
“I heard you once say a lie is sweet in the beginning and bitter in the end, and truth is bitter in the beginning, and sweet in the end.”
Read 4 tweets

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