Thread by @dogemperor

Your daily reminder that literally ANYTHING from Polymarket needs to be treated as a junk poll:

a) Polymarket is owned by MAGAt brogliarch Peter Thiel, who is VERY close in with JD Vance (likely to actually become President if TFG is elected) AND with incentive to skew bets

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b) Polymarket is not allowed to operate in the US due to a consent decree with CFTC (a federal agency regulating futurities trades) relating to charges Polymarket has been operating an unlicensed, illegal futurities market in the US

2/cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…

NOTABLY that consent decree would have allowed Polymarket to operate IF they got licensed properly--but rather than do that (and rather than follow ANOTHER law all financial markets in the US must follow) they simply geoblock US addresses

3/xfortune.com/crypto/2024/09…

c) Polymarket also doesn't operate in the US for another reason--or more properly, a pair of reasons, all which point to the same source.

And this relates to BOTH its status as an unlicensed futurities market AND the fact Dunning-Krugerrands are involved

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Polymarket is a cr/y/ptoc/u/rrency based betting market, where the "betting tokens" are an in-house cr/y/pto token that has to be bought with other cr/y/pto (that is purchased at a cr/y/pto exchange

Which also makes it a cr/y/pto exchange in the eyes of the law

5/x

And any financial institution or even *online gambling* site--whether it's a stockbroker/futurity trades company, cr/y/pto exchange, bank or credit union, DraftKings, what have you--has to comply with a regulation known as Know Your Customer to operate in the US.

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Know Your Customer requires collection of certain info regarding customers so that they can be checked against various lists--including lists run by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC--to make sure money isn't going to terrorists or hostile countries/groups

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OFAC's lists are how most of the sanctions programs the US operates work. There are sanctions programs against specific countries (like Cuba or Iran), and there are sanctions programs regarding terrorism, and a LOT of sanctions programs re organized crime.

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And there are at least *two* sanctions programs targeting Russia in particular--the Magnitsky Act (passed in 2012 after a Russian reporter on Putin was arrested and died in police custody) targeting Russian government officials involved in that particular coverup

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And later, a more generalized sanctions program targeting Russia over the invasion of Ukraine.

The latter has led to Russia being largely cut off from international banking other than through PRC, India, Turkiye...or cr/y/pto markets operating outside the US.

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Polymarket has apparently never participated in KYC, and realistically there's no way for them to keep their present model EITHER as a futurities market OR as an online betting house and follow all rules and regulations that apply to all the above for reasons:

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They'd first off have to take strong measures against bet manipulation (which they don't want to do), and likely they'd have to not only do KYC but actual ID checks (basically everything DraftKings has to do to make sure you're betting in a legal state)

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Which brings me to my next point:

d) Polymarket is REALLY susceptible to bet manipulation by folks based in BRICS countries, many of which are ALSO involved in "active measures" campaigns against the US and in support of The Former Guy (who also run spambots on Xitter)

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So first it should be noted that BRICS is a financial consortium that the Russians have worked to get the PRC, India (which is an ally state of Russia, I'll explain THAT as well), and a handful of developing and "nonaligned" nations as a competitor to SWIFT

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Of note: Pretty much there is not a single BRICS country that has a freely convertible currency--usually there's either an official trade currency (and an internal one), or an official (bad) exchange rate and a (very good) "black market" rate.

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And a good indication of just HOW BRICS financial markets are generally trending involve "stockmarketcrash" occasionally trending--and a dig into the trend shows it's related to crashes in the *Indian* stock market (another way Apartheid Clyde manipulates trends).

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Which means that anyone wanting to get money *out* of a BRICS country (and not lose a substantial part of it in exchange--assuming they're not in a country that has actual restrictions on export of funds) has to do it via precious metals (or similar) or cr/y/pto

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And this is because most BRICS countries ALSO (in an attempt to cut down on the black-market exchange) restrict how much foreign currency one can own at any single point in time

And yes, the Russian angle is VERY important here, as well as the Indian and Turkish angles

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Russia is in such poor financial shape right now that it's pegged the ruble to the yuan renminbi (China's "trade yuan") in an attempt to stop hyperinflation.

Its primary entry points left to world financial markets are through PRC, India, or Turkiye.

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PRC used to be a major player in cr/y/pto until a massive crackdown by the PRC government (which actually caused a crash in cr/y/pto markets), and now Russia and India, and (to a lesser extent) Turkiye, are the major players

And also the major players in agitprop bots.

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In addition to Russia's involvement in cr/y/pto which is STRONGLY connected to not just the general industry of Criming that is intimately linked with the Russian government, *India* is (independently AND in partnership with Russia) a massive player here

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Ever since Nahendra Modi took over India, it has been trending to an autocracy in the general model of Russia under Putin or Hungary under Orban. It is also run by Hindutva--Hindu religious nationalists--who have been noted in violent attacks on people of other religions

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India's role as an "active measures" player is especially apparent with *Canada* (which has a substantial refugee population of Sikhs, including some who wish for a Sikh state in the Punjab) which has LITERALLY involved political assassinations at points

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And their particular "active measures" campaign has been ongoing since at least 2017--specifically in support of far-right, Christian Nationalist candidates in Canada's CPC (including Pierre Poilievre) to attack the Canadian government's sanctions re said assassinations

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Modi and Putin are good friends, and as a result India is the only place in the world that actually connects to Russia for purposes of credit-cards (specifically Russia's MirPay) AND Indian spamfarms (increasingly run as AI chatbots) often push Russian "active measures".

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Turkiye has also been BRICS-curious for a while, is a major trade partner with Russia, and an increasing amount of spambot activity has been coming from Turkiye over the years--including at least some associated with "active measures" campaigns.

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And THIS, plus the countries' heavy involvement in cr/y/pto markets...means that there are a lot of "whales" in these countries that can directly manipulate online betting pools.

(And this is why you have SO many cr/y/pto bros spamming for TFG, as an aside.)

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In fact, people tracing bets on Polymarket have ALREADY found evidence that "whales" may be influencing it (and at least one is speculated to be either Apartheid Clyde or Thiel himself):

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https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155

And it should be noted that Russians in particular are well known for manipulating online betting, with Russian gangs using AI effectively having ruined online poker (long read, but definitely worth it)



27/xbloomberg.com/features/2024-…

e) A lot of the parties that have been responsible for cr/y/ptocurrency exchange thefts (including entire exchanges being emptied out) and at least some exit scams are known or suspected to be linked to Russian cybercrime

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In addition, *most* Russian cybercrime operates via cr/y/pto, everything from ransomware payouts to "carder sites" (selling stolen credit card info and PII) to sites offering illegal material like CSAM to general spam hosting, DDoS-as-a-service, and botnet rental

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And--as security researchers found when even spam shifted from a mere *fraud* problem to an active *malware* and cybersecurity issue in attempts to deal with the Russian Business Network, a Russian mob-linked spam outfit--cybercrime is Russia's #1 export

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And at least some of these cybercriminals have worked so closely with the Russian government, and are *so* protected by Putin and Duma members, that for all intents and purposes they serve as the "Cybercrime Auxillary" of Russia

31/xcybereason.com/blog/the-russi…

And it's specifically this close connection, AND the fact that the Russian government *is* at this point a "mobocracy", that allows Russian cybercrime ops--including, likely, cr/y/pto market manipulation--to flourish

32/xen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_B…

f) It gets worse. As I noted: Polymarket owned by MAGAt brogliarch who has openly espoused gambling on elections AND openly condemned both democracy AND the concept of a republic...and a LOT of funding is from a Russo-Canadian, Vitalik Buterin

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https://x.com/mendyboyd/status/1844807222339190818

And yes, Buterin has been VERY close to Putin, including....oh yes....actually pushing for Russia to become a dominant player in cr/y/pto.

Of note: BRICS countries have ALSO been heavily pushing pegging currencies to cr/y/pto

34/xmoney.cnn.com/2017/11/07/tec…

He's also good buddies with Glen Weyl, another brogliarch who can be best described as a Techno-Libertarian and who invented a whole new means of weighting votes--and also wants to remove one-person one-vote and bring back indentured servitude

35/xwired.com/story/wired25-…

Specifically, HIS take on "anarcho-capitalism" involves "quadratic voting", basically advocating that you can vote MULTIPLE times on something you feel strongly about, but you have to *pay* for it (and the charge goes up exponentially with each vote)

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g) There is a very strong possibility that Polymarket manipulated betting (along with various GOP "narrative polls") is being used to prime the pump for another January 6th:

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https://x.com/ef_of_eks/status/1832214197419003907

And over the past year or so, there have been ACTIVE attempts by cr/y/ptobros (largely based in BRICS countries, and helped out by this site's owner) to try to foment an actual financial panic (which to date has not been at all successful).

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And yes, I do feel fairly safe in noting the owner of this hellsite as an active participant:

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https://fixupx.com/hugolowell/status/1846429402403393996

And (as we've seen in recent news, with TFG not even able to keep on track in an interview, occasionally freezing, showing signs of something Seriously Neurologically Amiss) the goal of all this is to get JD Vance in as POTUS to Project 2025 All The Things

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So in summary: I'd advise you to treat Polymarket as birdcage lining material, but honestly it's not even worth the dead trees for that, so ignore anything from that site because it's almost certainly being manipulated to fuck and back

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@threadreaderapp unroll

@threadreaderapp BIG addendum: In addition to ALL that, Polymarket is now actively confirmed to be manipulating bets, as well as actively engaging in "pay for post" promotion including far-right media influencers caught up in the Tenet Media active-measures scheme

pp/1threadreaderapp.com/thread/1846915…

@threadreaderapp goes into much more detail, but suffice it to say that this is yet ANOTHER reason why they refuse to operate in the US (laws restrict or prohibit this with futurity stocks and online gaming in the US)

pp/2meidasplus.com/p/the-problem-…