I've worked there, so I know something about this, & I imagine many or most of the MAGA right would actually go UAE-style labor mobility if the whole, entire system were really a possibility -- but you won't understand what I mean from this excerpt.
What I mean is this: You can leave your wallet laying out in a cafe, and nobody will steal it. Nobody is ever going to take something from your hotel room. You won't get into a fight there, or really see any of the foreign-born workers breaking the law.
Why?
Instant deportation for breaking the law. They will absolutely scoop up a foreign-born janitor, waitress, or petroleum engineer and yeet them back across the border if they break a law.
In other words, it's not "open borders" in the sense of anyone can come and go as they please. They know who's in the country, and they will remove you from it if you get crossways with the authorities even just a tiny bit.
Somehow I don't think this is what the left-libertarian "open borders" crowd is really proposing, though. But I think the right would probably be ok with it.
The other thing that I pretty strongly dislike about this post -- apparently it's by @bryan_caplan so I will tag him here since I follow him -- is the idea that people are coming there because tolerance and diversity and hope and better life etc.
You would not learn this in a one-day layover the UAE chatting with some friendly locals, but when you work there enough to get a feel for the regional dynamics & how people who live there talk when they're at dinner, you learn the real reason why people leave behind the ancestral homelands where their families & tribes have dwelt for millennia to go to the UAE and wait tables or scrub floors:
The whole region is a hot mess, and is often destabilized, and every time a new country over there gets shaky and violence breaks out (often because the US is mucking about in some way with it), people head for the UAE as the central island of stability where they can hold down a steady job and send money back to their ancestral homeland where they would actually be happy to stay and live if it weren't in some state of collapse or turmoil.
Anyway, that whole post is terrible and I would urge Caplan to reconsider this approach of, "I had a one-day layover and chatted with some people and took some pictures, so here is why this place is great and we should be more like it" genre of... well, I don't even know what to call this.
When I landed in the UAE, there were armed guards in the airport and as I crossed through this one section after getting my bags from the baggage claim, they approached me and took me aside into a room and were like, "Where is the knife. Get it out of your bag."
They screen every single bag that comes into the country down to the smallest detail -- a friend of mine said there was a good documentary about this and how insane the level of scrutiny is at the airport -- and they found my Leatherman and I had to give it up.
I also had to show them I was there to work and give them phone numbers and where I was staying etc.
"Open borders" lol pleeze. I'm so cheesed at how bad that article was I can't even.
The UAE is a monarchy. And if you criticize the monarchy they will send you right back across the "open borders" and you won't be able to get back in. So you do not, under any circumstances, criticize the government while you are there.
Even white-collar startup guys & VCs etc do not criticize the UAE government while they are on UAE soil. Everyone knows better than this. If you have some negative thoughts about the monarchy, you keep it to yourself while you're there. But hey, tolerance!
I was about to say that I don't think Caplan has ever lived in a place with a ruthless set of codes around what's off-limits to say, where you get un-personed instantly for a single slip-up, but then I remembered he's an academic so he should be better calibrated than this.
This doesn't shock me at all. Again, it's a monarchy, & if you're on their soil & are not a member of their monarchy or possessed of some other form of massive leverage then you are there at their arbitrary pleasure & they will do what they like with you.
Just to be clear: I don't actually dislike the UAE. It's a lovely enough place, & I'd go back to Dubai for vacation or whatever. If one of my kids grew up & went there for work, I'd be like "cool have a good time, just be careful." I also don't dislike Caplan, the post's author.
What I dislike is "open borders" in both its libertarian and lefty anarcho-tyranny manifestations, & I especially dislike that extremely creepy and bad substack post.
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I had forgotten that this happened in MN. Wow. I recall quite clearly not just being outraged by this, but being told that it was not happening and was "disinformation."
There was also the church closures, which many churches both Catholic and Protestant came together to actively resist. They both took Walz to court and they opened in defiance of orders. Letters like this were sent and can be found via Google.
Walz presided over every single COVID thing that the many who are still mad at COVID are still mad about. You can put lockdowns, riots and looting, race-based vaccine allotments, mask mandates, vaccination requirements, school closures, church closures -- the works -- on him.
There's no sugar-coating this so I'll give it to you straight: 1. We don't have a competitive domestic chip industry & we won't have it in the next 10yrs 2. China will take 🇹🇼 & control TSMC 3. We will keep buying chips from TSMC w/ CCP backdoors in them, & pretend it's fine.
The idea that we're going to just man up & re-shore leading-edge chipmaking is a fairy tale. The problems that got us here are all part of the larger off-shoring of US manufacturing over the last 30yrs, & will not be solved by a few tariffs & some billions for Intel.
We need a complete & total reboot of all US industrial policy, with chipmaking as one part of that bigger effort. But even if we can get it together to do this, the path to that goes through a long period when CCP has root on our domestic systems & steals or sabotages stuff.
I have been on more than one secret lefty list going back to the 2010's, and I am now in more than one "new right" GC. And the caliber of the discussion on latter is so far above the caliber of discussion on the former, it's shocking.
It's weird for me to ponder this in light of the widely noted (& IMO very real) competency crisis on the right. I think what's happening is that as media & academia have driven out critical thinkers in favor of team players, these folks are finding themselves marooned on "the right".
There are some friends of mine like this who are now functionally on the right but are really committed to not having that label, & others who have just caved & are embracing it.
But either way, this is where the most interesting & enlightened discussions are happening.
The main characteristics of these superior conversations is that one of the main things that's off-limits is accusing someone of a "bad faith" or of a "-phobia."
If you're someone who's on my TL & is tech-forward and is nonetheless currently trying to police The Discourse with accusations of "phobia" or "bad faith" or the like, that's fine you can do that, but you're going to be left out of the most interesting & honest conversations. Your call tho.
FYI, gasoline-powered cars still going many years into the apocalypse is one of those details that bugs me as a serious prepper. Gasoline has a shelf-life of ~2yrs, & then only w/ additives & careful storage (usually it's like 6mo). So no you're not driving 5yrs after doomsday.
The way I suspend disbelief on this is to imagine that they've converted all the cars to run on some biofuel & there's a whole biofuel economy that they're just not showing on-screen.
This show actually not in that bad a shape on the gas issue, as you really have to get into Season 9 before you get past the 2yrs post-doomsday mark. If they're really going all-out to preserve it they can maybe plausibly make it.
Whether we view AI as a tool (= governed by the norms & practices of engineering) or as an agent (= governed by the norms & practices of HR) will determine the future of the AI safety debate. jonstokes.com/p/ai-safety-is…
I start out by giving some folk conceptions of alignment -- not formal definitions, but the ways different camps practically relate to it:
But there's another axis that cuts across the individualist and collectivist understandings of alignment: are you working with a conception of AI as a tool or as an agent.
Yeah. I watched “Moment of Contact” last night, a really compelling documentary on the Varginha incident — the Brazilian “Roswell,” basically. Either @jamescfox and his team make the whole thing up & hired actors to lie, or something wild went down. It’s very hard to dismiss.
Similar with the (less good & compelling) documentary “Ariel Phenomenon” about the incident at the school in Africa. You really have to believe that everyone involved is just amazingly committed to some bit, across a couple decades, to dismiss it.
Also, this was my beef with “Grabby Aliens,” which I expressed to Hanson’s coauthor and we had a nice back-and-forth. I was like, “you’re claiming we’ve seen no aliens in our light cone, but I’m not sure… at the very least it seems there’s a meaningful possibility you’re wrong.”