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Philip Boucher-Hayes Profile picture
@boucherhayes
Oct 22 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Yesterday 44 of the world’s leading climate scientists wrote an open letter about collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation (AMOC)

When I interviewed one of them about the consequences of AMOC reaching a tipping point he could barely keep it together. 🧵
They warn that further weakening of the AMOC by global heating could trigger significant changes in weather patterns, extreme temperature shifts, rising sea levels, and disruption to marine ecosystems.

“We appeal to the Nordic Council of Ministers to take this risk seriously” Image
“If Britain and Ireland become like northern Norway, that has tremendous consequences. Our finding is that this is not a low probability,” Professor Peter Ditlevsen who predicts a tipping point in 2057

“This is not something you easily adapt to.”

I interviewed him here 👇
The letter is measured, and calls primarily for more AMOC shutdown research.

But it is signed by a who’s who of the world’s most pre-eminent researchers, and they say they believe the risk has been “greatly underestimated”.

Letter 👉 en.vedur.is/media/ads_in_h…Image
There is no “new normal”. AMOC Slowdown means chaotic weather.
Apologies, I should have said the interview with Dr Mathew England was in a doc series called "Rising Tides". It will be screened outside Ireland soon as "Global Warning". You can watch the Irish version now if you download the RTÉ International Player. rte.ie/player/series/…

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More from @boucherhayes

Philip Boucher-Hayes Profile picture
Oct 20
Another “Don’t Look Up” moment

Ocean currents regulate the planet. Transferring heat and cold around the globe. One estimate suggests without the Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC) the seas at the equator would be 20c hotter and 20c colder to the north.
Short 🧵
#Climate
There is a lot of uncertainty amongst oceanographers about what is happening to the AMOC. But there is broad agreement global heating is slowing it down.

The most recent IPCC assessment says the chance of AMOC shutdown this century is low.
Recently a much criticised, but as yet not disproven study, suggested that repeated computer modelling indicates 2057 is the date that a tipping point (leading to eventual AMOC shutdown) will be reached.

I talked to the authors of that study here 👇
Read 8 tweets
Philip Boucher-Hayes Profile picture
Mar 22, 2023
Five facts that the climate scientists of the IPCC wanted you to know that the petro-states successfully lobbied to bury or fudge.
1/ Image
This weeks report is the product of a long negotiation in which all the governments of the world horse trade.

Luckily there are minutes kept of who vetoed what. Some of it is important but not critical 👇 Image
Some of it is absolutely vital to how the urgent need for action is framed.

For example some countries wanted to give greater prominence to the agreed fact that global emissions must peak and start coming down in under three years. The Saudis nixed that. Image
Read 11 tweets
Philip Boucher-Hayes Profile picture
Apr 4, 2022
I've just finished the latest #IPCCReport. It's written in the usual barely comprehensible climate wonk speak. But behind the jargon there's a blueprint that seems as revolutionary now as Das Kapital must have in 1867... Image
The climate scientists don't do anything like call for the overthrow of the capitalist classes. But they use science to point to how society has to be re-ordered from top to bottom.
e.g. If we want to keep warming below 1.5 global emissions will need to peak in 2025 – three years
And if you want to do that then they say you must also reduce coal consumption by 95%, oil by 60% and gas by 45% by 2050.
And because we will need some fossil fuels for feedstocks etc this means electricity must transform to 100% renewable ... starting immediately.
Read 12 tweets
Philip Boucher-Hayes Profile picture
Feb 1, 2022
This is quite a slap in the face from Brussels for Ireland's care for the environment. It comes from the Director in charge of environmental implementation at the Commission speaking at a recent online conference.
Thread ...
1) "About 50% of Ireland's urban waste
waters are still not collected and treated in compliance with the Urban wastewater treatment
directive"

2) "Many bird species are in serious decline, and there is even a serious risk of extinction of certain breeding species"
3) "With less than 2.5% of Irish marine waters protected this represents one of the poorest records in Europe"

4) "Only 15% of terrestrial habitats are in favourable condition and over half are suffering from
ongoing decline."
Read 8 tweets
Philip Boucher-Hayes Profile picture
Jan 30, 2022
Journalist Murray Sayle wrote this piece about #BloodySunday just 5 days after the murders. It was spiked by Sunday Times editor Harold Evans, but fifty years on remains an astonishingly accurate account of what the Army was up to. lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v24/…
Perhaps it was telling that it took a man from a colonised country (Australia) to recognise the British Army account for the tissue of lies that it was. And it was an unforgivably supine decision of Evans to not run the piece. Sayle did the right thing and resigned
Evans decision to withhold Sayle's research from the Widgery Tribunal doubtless also made the whitewash easier, though there was the troubling question of protecting sources. How different the course of The Troubles might have been.
Read 6 tweets
Philip Boucher-Hayes Profile picture
Jan 12, 2022
Four climate experts have just made statements to the Oireachtas Environment & Climate Action Committee which is considering Carbon Budgets. Some of their analysis really raises fundamental questions about whether we are getting this right at all. In no particular order ...
Ireland is subsidising fossil fuels to the tune of €2.4bn a year (CSO, 2019). At COP26 we agreed to start phasing those out, but for now Ireland plans only to produce a road map for cutting subsidies in 2024.
- Prof John Sweeney
Ireland is wealthy, educated, low population density, with great renewables potential, but according to SEAI only 11% of our energy is green. In other words 90% of it is unsustainable and we have failed to reduce our emissions since 1990.
- Prof Kevin Anderson @KevinClimate
Read 10 tweets

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