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Outbreak Updates

Dec 9

The USDA’s recent findings are concerning 🧵

H5N1 samples from dairy cows in California and swine in Oregon have revealed the virus is not only infecting unexpected mammalian hosts.

It’s also mutating in ways that should set off alarms.

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S110N has been previously associated with changes in receptor specificity.

It means potentially enabling the virus to interact with alpha-2,6 receptors.

This is the evolutionary groundwork for a host range expansion.

A prerequisite for efficient human-to-human transmission.

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The fact that this mutation is found in dairy cows, a host not traditionally associated with influenza virus replication, raises critical questions about adaptation.

Dairy cows do not have the dense networks of alpha-2,3 receptors typically required for H5N1 replication.

The virus may be altering its binding preferences or utilizing alternative pathways to establish infection.

3/

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Outbreak Updates

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Dec 9

Mild isn’t a synonym of safe 🧵

Many recent H5N1 cases in humans have been described as mild.

On the surface, this might sound reassuring, especially for a virus historically associated with a fatality rate of 50-60%.

But make no mistake.

This isn’t good news.

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This is a red flag that the virus is adapting to human biology.

The slow creep of H5N1 human cases is a silent alarm few are hearing, and even fewer are prepared to confront.

What began as a virus largely confined to birds is now repeatedly spilling over into humans.

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While the number of human infections remains relatively low, the virus is signaling its intent to evolve.

When zoonotic viruses accumulate cases in humans, the odds of a devastating pandemic skyrocket.

Mild isn’t a synonym of safe.

3/

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Dec 6

The H5N1 outbreaks in the U.S. are no longer isolated incidents 🧵

Human cases in California and Missouri appear to share the same clade, B3.13.

This link raises the possibility of a novel transmission pathway.

Milk products.

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Both cases are classified as “unknown origin” since there is no evidence of direct exposure to poultry, which is the traditional reservoir for H5N1 in humans.

This lack of an avian connection points to a new, potentially mammalian host.

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The detection of B3.13 in two states separated by over 1,500 miles points to a virus that may already be circulating beyond localized clusters.

The virus is not limited to isolated spillover events from birds but could be spreading through a shared pathway.

2/

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Dec 4

The situation unfolding in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is serious 🧵

Dozens are dead in a matter of weeks, and we don’t even know what’s killing them.

Here’s why this is truly concerning.

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The official count is probably a fraction of the reality.

Many die at home, never making it into any statistics.

The symptoms (fever, cough, anemia) are vague, but the lethality isn’t.

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The affected areas are rural, impoverished, and have virtually no medical infrastructure.

If this spreads to urban centers, the already overstretched healthcare capacity of the DRC (currently overwhelmed by mpox) will implode.

3/

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Dec 3

H5N1 is no longer a distant threat confined to birds.

It’s becoming a clear and present danger to humanity.

It’s closing the gap between animal-to-human transmission and the one thing we all dread:

Sustained human-to-human spread.

🧵

1/

The findings on H5N1’s 2022 strain are a brutal warning.

Rhis virus is becoming more adept at targeting humans.

It binds to cells in the human respiratory tract with greater efficiency than H5N1 from 2005, and even rivals the attachment and replication ability of H3N2.

Which caused the deadly 1968 pandemic.

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We’ve seen this play out before.

In 1918, an avian-origin H1N1 virus mutated to spread between humans.

It killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide.

The 1968 H3N2 pandemic killed over a million people.

Both started with zoonotic viruses slowly adapting to human hosts.

3/

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Nov 26

The teenager in British Columbia is a preview of what pandemic risk truly looks like 🧵

A single critical case, no clear source, and the absence of a transmission chain.

It’s a script we know too well, and one we’re doing nothing to rewrite.

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A single human infected with H5N1, a virus notorious for its catastrophic mortality in avian and human hosts, now lies in airborne isolation, lungs failing, held alive by machines.

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The case has already revealed two mutations in the virus.

One making it better at binding to human cells, the other driving infection deep into the lungs.

They are evidence of a virus edging closer to a species barrier it was never supposed to cross.

3/

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