1\🧵
HOW DOES COVID/LONG-COVID PANDEMIC END ?
Chapter 4:
"THEN, TODAY, CITIZENS/POLITICIANS MUST TALK ABOUT THE ELEPHANT !"
🔸️Minimising media propaganda of the "calm-mongering" 'experts'/'scientists' distracts citizens from reality...
HOW DOES COVID/LONG-COVID PANDEMIC END ?
Chapter 4:
"THEN, TODAY, CITIZENS/POLITICIANS MUST TALK ABOUT THE ELEPHANT !"
🔸️Minimising media propaganda of the "calm-mongering" 'experts'/'scientists' distracts citizens from reality...
2a\🧵
... as calm-mongering serves to form an Overton Window (👇),
🔸️or agenda about feasible visions of the future, that may be discussed in polite political conversations about The Virus That Must Not Be Named or 'Anything But Covid' (ABC).
... as calm-mongering serves to form an Overton Window (👇),
🔸️or agenda about feasible visions of the future, that may be discussed in polite political conversations about The Virus That Must Not Be Named or 'Anything But Covid' (ABC).
2b\🧵
COVID response became a massive global failure...👇
🔸️...as 'experts'/'advisors' have debated herd immunity, hybrid immunity, viral attenuation (chance COVID will evolve to become milder), seasonality etc...
Sources:
🧵
x.com/AlleBurgers/st…
🧵
typingmonkeys.substack.com/p/calm-mongeri…
COVID response became a massive global failure...👇
🔸️...as 'experts'/'advisors' have debated herd immunity, hybrid immunity, viral attenuation (chance COVID will evolve to become milder), seasonality etc...
Sources:
🧵
x.com/AlleBurgers/st…
🧵
typingmonkeys.substack.com/p/calm-mongeri…
3\🧵
...with endless discussions on reckless, false pictures of a disease being tamed.
🔸️Nothing could be further from the truth.
👇 🧵
...with endless discussions on reckless, false pictures of a disease being tamed.
🔸️Nothing could be further from the truth.
👇 🧵
https://x.com/arijitchakrav/status/1849273166226460997?t=A4HgjTQoYkiWg9GRW2qkmw&s=19
4\🧵
However RISK, downside SCENARIOS, and GOOD PANDEMIC PRACTICES are not being discussed in the public sphere.
🔸️Remember COVID-19/Long COVID is not a cold or the flu!
🧵
However RISK, downside SCENARIOS, and GOOD PANDEMIC PRACTICES are not being discussed in the public sphere.
🔸️Remember COVID-19/Long COVID is not a cold or the flu!
🧵
https://x.com/AlleBurgers/status/1825622020056592846?t=obdjAiwnpOaxf5bxAd6CtQ&s=19
5a\🧵
WE MUST TALK ABOUT DOWNSIDE RISKS !!
AlleBurgers tried in NL with the Societal Impact Team (MIT). However, we failed and Dutch MIT produced the next 'Pandemic Balanced Score Card', and went in 'sleep mode'.
WE MUST TALK ABOUT DOWNSIDE RISKS !!
AlleBurgers tried in NL with the Societal Impact Team (MIT). However, we failed and Dutch MIT produced the next 'Pandemic Balanced Score Card', and went in 'sleep mode'.
5b\🧵
Dutch MIT said to miss expertise to have rational conversations about downside risks (Taleb's Happiness of the Christmas Turkey...).
Dutch MIT said to miss expertise to have rational conversations about downside risks (Taleb's Happiness of the Christmas Turkey...).
6\🧵
Firstly, we should discuss ATTRITIONAL RISK SCENARIO.
🔸️COVID re-infections over a lifetime can only cause cumulative damage (faster or slower).
🔸️Reinfections can't undo or lower existing long COVID/persistent COVID damage (sequelae).
Firstly, we should discuss ATTRITIONAL RISK SCENARIO.
🔸️COVID re-infections over a lifetime can only cause cumulative damage (faster or slower).
🔸️Reinfections can't undo or lower existing long COVID/persistent COVID damage (sequelae).
https://x.com/arijitchakrav/status/1845090728755568795?t=KE7BGyT70hREE8eWRNZ3KA&s=19
7\🧵
🔸️For slow-onset (delayed) sequelae, the extent of the health burden visible today may be a very small fraction of the total locked-in burden (see "Danger of Underestimating Delayed Onset Diseases" 👇), think of cancer risk.
On cumalative risk:
peertopublic.com/posts/understa…
🔸️For slow-onset (delayed) sequelae, the extent of the health burden visible today may be a very small fraction of the total locked-in burden (see "Danger of Underestimating Delayed Onset Diseases" 👇), think of cancer risk.
On cumalative risk:
peertopublic.com/posts/understa…
8a\🧵
🔸️We don't know how long the sequelae last, or if we're done with finding new sequelae.
🔸️The true burden of 1-2 infections p.a. is still unknown (known burden < total burden).
🔸️We don't know how long the sequelae last, or if we're done with finding new sequelae.
🔸️The true burden of 1-2 infections p.a. is still unknown (known burden < total burden).
8b\🧵
We must talk about these risks in a public debate: That's revolution in public health.
E.g. oncogenic potential COVID:
🧵
We must talk about these risks in a public debate: That's revolution in public health.
E.g. oncogenic potential COVID:
🧵
https://x.com/AlleBurgers/status/1849466709301678136?t=gBgHpzGZNaSJBbLqRJZ8Gg&s=19
9\🧵
“Learning to live with Covid” should become:
👉 "Learning to live our lives while rationally mitigating the ever-present risks of an airborne disease with debilitating consequences.
🧵 👇
“Learning to live with Covid” should become:
👉 "Learning to live our lives while rationally mitigating the ever-present risks of an airborne disease with debilitating consequences.
🧵 👇
https://x.com/AlleBurgers/status/1825622020056592846?t=obdjAiwnpOaxf5bxAd6CtQ&s=19
10\🧵
How long can citizens carry/ accept excess deaths, health burden long COVID, socio-economic- and wellbeing costs of repeated infections and cumulating costs.
By how much?
These questions belong to be discussed today in the public domain.
🧵 👇
How long can citizens carry/ accept excess deaths, health burden long COVID, socio-economic- and wellbeing costs of repeated infections and cumulating costs.
By how much?
These questions belong to be discussed today in the public domain.
🧵 👇
https://x.com/AlleBurgers/status/1825622082966655052?t=Hxb9G8Pu02HhvhysWCEowA&s=19
11\🧵
Secondly, we should discuss the risk of the SUDDEN CATASTROPHE SCENARIO.
🔸️Repeated viral evolution leaves the risk of higher IFRs open.
Secondly, we should discuss the risk of the SUDDEN CATASTROPHE SCENARIO.
🔸️Repeated viral evolution leaves the risk of higher IFRs open.
https://x.com/arijitchakrav/status/1847461061475078543?t=RaWWn59O0mqzUImqnWXWwA&s=19
12\🧵
🔸️Hybrid immunity; gray swan/model-based assessment of risk of sudden failure of hybrid immunity.
🔸️Debatable promises about stable protection vs severe disease being provided by T cells; more likely than COVID suddenly losing its virulence.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
🔸️Hybrid immunity; gray swan/model-based assessment of risk of sudden failure of hybrid immunity.
🔸️Debatable promises about stable protection vs severe disease being provided by T cells; more likely than COVID suddenly losing its virulence.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
13\🧵
🔸️What about risk of co-circulation of multiple strains (serotype formation)?
This will further complicate vaccine development, which are already struggling to keep up with viral evolution.
🔸️What about risk of co-circulation of multiple strains (serotype formation)?
This will further complicate vaccine development, which are already struggling to keep up with viral evolution.
14\🧵
What will government do if such a situation arises? WHAT'S THE PLAN?
🔸️Sweep it under the rug is the current approach.
🔸️What's the probability of occurrence and impact of the downside scenarios for COVID/long-COVID pandemic?
What will government do if such a situation arises? WHAT'S THE PLAN?
🔸️Sweep it under the rug is the current approach.
🔸️What's the probability of occurrence and impact of the downside scenarios for COVID/long-COVID pandemic?
15\🧵
🔸️How about #BirdFlu #H5N1. Current approach: DON'T TEST. DON'T TELL. Pressured by local companies, pressured by local CDCs.
🔸️How about #BirdFlu #H5N1. Current approach: DON'T TEST. DON'T TELL. Pressured by local companies, pressured by local CDCs.
https://x.com/Mark_Ungrin/status/1848411567723057220?t=L663X7fa7pEOtTs1mrX3wA&s=19
16\🧵
🔸️What happens if we let the COVID run for years, with repeated waves of disease?
As we've seen, the worst historical pandemics killed 10-40% of people, and caused decades of instability.
🔸️What happens if we let the COVID run for years, with repeated waves of disease?
As we've seen, the worst historical pandemics killed 10-40% of people, and caused decades of instability.
17\🧵
🔸️If every wave has a chance of leading to "attenuation" or a Gray Swan Event (GSE), it turns out that finally collapse is a distinct risk.
🔸️If every wave has a chance of leading to "attenuation" or a Gray Swan Event (GSE), it turns out that finally collapse is a distinct risk.
18\🧵
DOES THE HOUSE ALWAYS WIN?
🔸️Probably yes, in above experiment the house will win, when govts gamble long enough!
🔸️Allowing repeated COVID waves is a bet on viral evolution, unless the stochastic experiment is non-ergodic; i.e. when the statistics change with time.
DOES THE HOUSE ALWAYS WIN?
🔸️Probably yes, in above experiment the house will win, when govts gamble long enough!
🔸️Allowing repeated COVID waves is a bet on viral evolution, unless the stochastic experiment is non-ergodic; i.e. when the statistics change with time.
19\🧵
COVID PANDEMIC IS AN UNCONTROLLED EXPERIMENT WITHOUT HISTORICAL PRECEDENT.
🔸️Governments irresponsibly, recklessly and repeatedly expose citizens to COVID, of which they don't fully understand the long-term consequences. This is orwellian imprudent and dangerous.
COVID PANDEMIC IS AN UNCONTROLLED EXPERIMENT WITHOUT HISTORICAL PRECEDENT.
🔸️Governments irresponsibly, recklessly and repeatedly expose citizens to COVID, of which they don't fully understand the long-term consequences. This is orwellian imprudent and dangerous.
16\🧵
🔸️COVID is changing, evolving, doing what 'experts' assured that it wouldn't do!
🔸️Moreover, it's doing it in ways that 'experts' assured it wouldn't do. However, governmens/WHO keep debating and pretending it will become!
🔸️COVID is changing, evolving, doing what 'experts' assured that it wouldn't do!
🔸️Moreover, it's doing it in ways that 'experts' assured it wouldn't do. However, governmens/WHO keep debating and pretending it will become!
17\🧵
RISK MITIGATION is best done with worst-case scenarios, not wishful thinking.
🔸️The question governments should be asking is "what are the consequences of e.g. another event like Omicron BA.1?
And, what's the plan if it comes to pass?
RISK MITIGATION is best done with worst-case scenarios, not wishful thinking.
🔸️The question governments should be asking is "what are the consequences of e.g. another event like Omicron BA.1?
And, what's the plan if it comes to pass?
18a\🧵
🔸️Today governments must get risk mitigating acknowledged, and discussable.
🔸️False promises and spinning can only go so far.
🔸️Today governments must get risk mitigating acknowledged, and discussable.
🔸️False promises and spinning can only go so far.
18b\🧵
Governments require a revolutionary new public health with scenarios, risk mitigation and a set of Good Pandemic Practices to fix this problem.
🧵 👇
Governments require a revolutionary new public health with scenarios, risk mitigation and a set of Good Pandemic Practices to fix this problem.
🧵 👇
https://x.com/AlleBurgers/status/1825622020056592846?t=-G4Os766vnJuDujHeyyajQ&s=19
19\🧵
In the coming 🧵, @arijitchakrav discuss how the COVID pandemic problem remains fixable.
In the coming 🧵, @arijitchakrav discuss how the COVID pandemic problem remains fixable.
@arijitchakrav . @threadreaderapp unroll please
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