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Tom Bonier Profile picture
@tbonier
Oct 25 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
A bunch of people have shared this with me, asking what I think. So this will be a mini-thread on that topic.

The tldr version is, if those numbers are accurate (or close to accurate) it is a very good sign for Harris. And they are plausible, but they could also just be wrong.
So theoretically, polling of people who already voted should be more accurate than a likely voter poll, because it is a known universe of voters, so you can quota/weight to the exact right audience, and verify turnout history.
Unfortunately, Marist didn't share sample data for the early voter respondents, so there is no way of validating if they did this. But they're good pollsters, so I would hope they did.
Okay, so to the data and why it would be good news. By party registration the AZ early vote right now is +6.4R. Marist shows Harris up 11 with these voters. That's quite a swing, but here's why it's plausible:
First, we know that unaffiliated voters have been trending Democratic. Second, we know that in 2020, Republicans who voted before Election Day were more likely to cross over for Biden than those who voted on Election Day.
While I highlighted AZ in this thread, the swings are similar in GA and NC. So, again, if the pollster accurately sample early voters (and that's actually a very easy thing to sample), then these polls are very good news for Harris.

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More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier Profile picture
Oct 25
A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there.
1) It is still quite early. The total turnout so far is just 25% of the final early vote in 2020, and 38% of the 2022 early vote. We're going to see a lot more votes cast there, and the numbers will move around during that time.
2) We may just be overreacting to a different sequencing of when the votes are cast. In 2020 at this point the Dem turnout % was 3% higher than the GOP turnout %, but by the time early voting ended, the GOP turnout was 5 pts higher. That's a big swing. Compare that to...
Read 9 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Oct 22
I've gotten a lot of questions about what I think about the NV early vote, so here's a quick thread. From a party share of the EV, there has obviously been a substantial gap closing relative to 2020, where at this point it was +16D, and right now it is +2D. Image
Of course, while I wouldn't compare raw numbers in a presidential to a midterm, it is worth pointing out that, at this point in 2022 the EV in NV was just +3D, and things turned out fine for Dems then.
Also, let's remember that the final Dem advantage (party reg, not vote) among all EV in NV in 2020 was +3. In 2022 it was +1.5. So Dems started off huge (with lots of mail) in 2020, but things settled back down to a narrow advantage. Meaning, let's keep watching this. Image
Read 5 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Oct 21
I'm hoping to have the time to write something longer/more detailed on the early vote in the battlegrounds in the next day or two. But for now, a brief thread explaining why I think a lot of the EV analyses are getting it wrong, and how complex this all is this year.
I'm going to use NC as the example, but we could really use any state and find generally the same thing.
Taken at a high level, the early vote data in NC would appear to be very good for the GOP. At this point in 2020 the EV was +22 Dem, and right now it is +1 D. But let's talk about why it's a lot more complicated than that. Image
Read 14 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Oct 15
This week marks the point where I believe we will have enough early voting data in key states to begin to talk about what we're seeing with more regularity, so I wanted to share some thoughts about what we can and cannot do with this dataset.
1) Early voting data will not tell us who is going to win. Just like a poll won't either. It provides important context. The right way to do this is to use EV data to inform polls and vice versa.
2) Just because one side or the other has more of their people voting early doesn't mean that they are winning that state. This should be obvious, but this gets missed sometimes, it seems.
Read 9 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Oct 15
Some MI mail/early voting stats:

The gender gap (women +11.9) is currently bigger than the gap was at this point in 2020 and 2022. Image
A lot of that is being driven by huge turnout from Black women. Black voters overall are accounting for a substantially larger share of the votes cast thus far, relative to the same point in '20 or '22. Image
To quantify that further, overall early turnout in MI is at 55% of where it was at this point in 2020 (which was expected, many voters will shift back to Eday), yet Black women turnout is at 77% of 2020 levels.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Oct 11
Okay, we're finally getting to the point where there is enough early vote in several key states to begin to watch for emerging trends. So I'll kick off my first early vote thread of 2024 with a look at Pennsylvania.
One quick note before we begin - for the sake of brevity I will generally refer to all ballots cast before election day as "early votes", regardless of how they were cast (mail, early in person, etc). I may talk about mode from time to time, but generally just combine them all.
If you look at the vote reported in PA so far, Dems have a solid advantage in terms of party registration, though the gap is smaller than it was in 2020 at this same point, but that doesn't tell the whole story. More on that in a moment. Image
Read 11 tweets

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