Thread by @Mohsin_o2

An initial assessment of last night's #Israeli attacks on #Iran:

Reports indicate that, as a precursor to last night’s attack, Israel initially targeted air defense systems and radar installations in Syria and Iraq.

A Thread 🧵

It appears #Israeli aircraft used Jordanian and Iraqi airspace to strike military radars in #Iraq, #Syria, aiming to take out radar systems before launching missiles toward #Iran, thus avoiding any direct entry into Iranian airspace.

Israeli sources report that 20 sites in Iran, all military targets, were struck. This suggests Israel has decided to respond in kind to Iran’s October 1 attack, which similarly targeted military facilities.

Iran’s Air Defense Command confirmed that “specific military centers in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan, and Ilam” were hit. While they acknowledged that some targets were indeed struck, they described the damage as “limited.” Tehran typically does not confirm enemy attacks.

🔹Iran also formally confirmed the deaths of two army (not IRGC) officers in the attacks.

Identified as;
Major Hamze Jahandided
Sergeant Muhammad Mehdi Shahrokhifar

Both were serving at the Sar Bandar Air defence position in Khuzestan province.

Despite these admissions, Iranian media has largely downplayed the incident, indicating that, at least for now, #Iran may be reluctant to respond directly and escalate tensions.

Some journalists and analysts warn that strikes on the capital, Tehran, should not be “normalized.”

Missile strikes on Tehran itself are unprecedented. Some experts caution that Israel may be testing a “Lebanon model” with Iran: conducting limited operations to demonstrate restraint while slowly crossing red lines, potentially setting the stage for a larger confrontation.

Indeed, some evidence could support this hypothesis. Last night’s attacks concentrated on Iran’s radar, air defense, and missile facilities. Depending on the extent of success, these strikes could weaken Iran’s capacity to defend against future attacks or deliver counterstrikes

The #USA appears to have played a key role in limiting Israel’s response. Additionally, the recent reinforcement of U.S. positions in the region, including the deployment of F-16 fighter jets, may be aimed at containing any potential #Iranian retaliation.

Notably, despite weeks of preparation for this strike and reports that Israel had telegraphed its intentions, Iran’s radar and defense sites were still targeted rather easily. This could be seen as a clear message from Israel regarding Iran’s vulnerabilities.

Finally, the response from Arab states was significant. Saudi Arabia was the first country to condemn the attack on Iranian territory, followed by other GCC members,Egypt and Pakistan. Arab states clearly wish to avoid being drawn into this conflict.

I also wish for Peace 🕊