Arnaud Bertrand Profile picture
Nov 2, 2024 16 tweets 12 min read Read on X
Last full day of our 2-week Sichuan road-trip and we end it on a high point: a visit of SanXinDui, one of the greatest archeological discoveries of all times, anywhere in the world.

Unfortunately SanXinDui is bizarrely unknown in the West, even though it ranks on par with things like the discovery of Tutankhamen's tomb or the Terracotta army in Xi'an.

SanXinDui used to be the capital of China's ancient Shu kingdom which ruled here between 1,700BC and 1,200BC so everything in the museum is 3,000 to 4,000 years old.
The artifacts found here - and they uncovered an incredible 17,000 objects already - are beyond extraordinary, almost otherworldly, revealing a unique culture unlike anything that had been found in China before. And a culture much more advanced for that time period of Chinese history than had been assumed before.

Here you can see 4 pieces we just saw in the museum:
- A monumental bronze mask in pure SanXinDui style, with protruding eyes that archeologists believe symbolizes a far-sighted leader or shaman
- A typical SanXinDui mask with a gold plated mask on top of it
- A monumental 4m tall bronze "tree" with dragons for its roots and birds with 9 fruits and birds on its branches
- A wheel with 5 beams thought to represent the sun

More artefacts we saw in the museum in the 🧵 below 👇Image
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You can see many, many bronze masks, all with similar features but all unique Image
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You also have more complete statues like this guy who looks like a 4,000 years old weightlifter 😊 Image
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This small item, thought to be a kid's toy, is extraordinarily popular on Chinese social media because it looks like the pigs in Angry Birds 😅 Image
The Shu kingdom is famous for its love of gold, which is rare in China's history (they're more of a jade people) and you can see plenty of gold masks Image
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I could go on and on about the pieces in the museum but let me show you what the tourists can't see, which I was lucky enough to be given access to.

How? You may remember that 2 days ago I met Tang Fei, the guy who literally unearthed SanXinDui:
And Tang Fei was kind enough to introduce us to Mr Wei, the director of the museum who very generously offered us a beautiful lunch in a private room in the museum. Image
Mr Wei in turn introduced to Mr Qiao, one of the lead archeologists who still works one the site. The statue you see on the left? He personally dug it up! Image
Mr Qiao then brought us to some of the excavation sites where some of the items were discovered. As you can see, the SanXinDui treasure was literally found in the middle of farmland.
But this is the real deal, the location of the 8 so-called "sacrificial pits" where they found the most important treasures of SanXinDui. We were immensely privileged to have access to them and actually go in the pits, which are each in custom made containment rooms.

Mr Qiao also brought us to a place where they're conserving part of the old SanXinDui city wall, which was an incredible 30-50m wide, accompanied by a moat, all around the city.
Let me end this thread with 4 more treasures we saw in SanXinDui:
- A video of the "tree" which to me is the most incredible piece in the museum
- A monumental bird face: birds were obviously very important to Shu culture
- A snake with wings, which is strangely reminiscent of some of the deities in Mesoamerican religions (like the Quetzalcoatl)
- an incredible sculpture of a man with bird feet

After my various discussions today, it's stunning to me how many mystery remain about SanXinDui and the Shu kingdom. Among the biggest are:

- No weapons were found anywhere. Mr Qiao believes this is because they didn't fight wars but maintained social order through rites and religion.

- Virtually all the treasures found were found in "sacrificial pits" and the archeologists believe they were disposed of in these pits as part of religious ceremonies. In fact there's plenty of evidence many of the objects were broken on purpose as part of the ceremonies. Which is deeply strange: why would they dispose of such precious artifacts? And it also of course means that all the stuff we found to date was the stuff they judged should be disposed of... Bear in mind only an estimated 0.2% of the SanXinDui site has been uncovered to date

- The one question that archeologists are most keen to find an answer to is where the SanXinDui kings are buried. They found many burial grounds for common people but none for SanXinDui royalty, which they know existed because there's plenty of evidence the Shu kingdom was very hierarchical. And of course in China, royal tombs are where the biggest treasures typically are. So we probably have a LOT more SanXinDui treasures to uncover yet!
Apologies, a couple of other things because I wrote this thread in a hurry whilst visiting the site and in between conversations and driving around the various places 😅

It's of course SanXingDui with a "g", apologies for the typo! The name means "3 starry mounds" and corresponds to a spot on the site originally called SanXingDui, where there are 3 mounds (which I saw too).

There are also a couple of artifacts that I failed to properly mention, even though they're absolute masterpieces such as this monumental statue 👇, which is believed to be that of a religious figure. The statue used to hold something which has since disappeared: the leading theory is that it was an elephant's tusk since we've found tons of them buried on the site, which means they clearly were very important for Shu ceremonial practices.Image
China has a classification system for its cultural artifacts and the highest possible classification is "items that cannot leave the country ever, under any circumstances". I asked the museum director which items in the museum were under this classification and it's these 4 👇:
- The monumental statue
- The tree
- A gold scepter with symbols on it
- A jade "zhang" with symbols on itImage
Some people wrote in the comments that Shu culture has nothing to do with ancient Chinese culture but that's not true, there are many overlaps:
- The use of ceremonial "zhang" (see first picture for a zhang and the second picture of a small SanXingDui statue showing how it was used during ceremonies): widely used throughout China during the Shang and Zhou dynasty
- The use of "Bi" discs: hundreds of "Bi" were unearthed in Shu kingdom sites, and similarly they're a staple of ancient Chinese culture to symbolize the sky (in ancient China the sky was symbolize as round and the earth as square).
- The presence of dragons and other overlapping mythical creatures
- The legend of the sun birds which can be seen in the "tree" of SanXingDui: a foundational story of Chinese mythology is that originally there were 10 suns orbiting around the earth, often depicted as three-legged birds called "sun birds". Originally, the suns took turns appearing in the sky, but one day all ten suns decided to rise together and their combined heat was devastating. The asked for help from Houyi, an archer known for his exceptional skill who climbed to the top of Mount Kunlun and shot down nine of the ten suns with his magical bow. Many researchers believe that the tree of SanXingDui, with its 9 birds, represent the legend of 10 suns and the cosmic order as it was understood at the time.Image
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Lastly, if you are interested in the Shu kingdom, SanXingDui is not the only site that was uncovered, there's also Jinsha which I visited 2 days ago 👇 which became the kingdom's capital after SanXingDui. The museum there is also fascinating!

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More from @RnaudBertrand

May 10
Every year, this has to be the one report I look forward to the most: the Democracy Perception Index, compiled by the Alliance of Democracies Foundation (in partnership with Nita Data).

In fact, my yearly thread on the report is apparently such a tradition that, this year, its lead researcher personally sent me the report with this message: "every year, I look forward to your thread about it!". That's how you start wondering whether you tweet too much 😅

Why do I like this report so much? A few reasons:

1) The Alliance of Democracies Foundation, the organization behind the report, cannot even remotely be suspected of being some sort of anti-West outlet: it was started by an ex-NATO Secretary General (Anders Fogh Rasmussen) and its stated purpose is "to unite world democracies"

2) It's surprisingly honest and the methodology is actually democratic. Unlike other reports on democracy the scoring isn't done by the report's authors (like the report by Freedom House or The Economist's "Democracy Index"). It simply asks people what they think and, when it comes to democracy, that's kind of the point 🤷‍♂️

3) I love the expression "perception is reality" because, like it or not, what people believe about their system is what determines its legitimacy. A democracy that nobody actually experiences as one can't credibly claim to be one. And conversely, a so-called "autocracy" that its people overwhelmingly believe is actually a democracy might... actually be a democracy.

Anyhow, this year's edition did not disappoint. The data is absolutely fascinating and frankly, a little terrifying. So here you go: my thread on the 2026 Democracy Perception Index 🧵Image
Let's start with what's always the highlight of the report: the actual ranking of countries based on democracy perception by their own people.

Which, this year, as a French man, is utterly depressing: France is now, according to the French people themselves, one of the least democratic countries in the world, alongside countries like Kazakhstan, Yemen or Zimbabwe. It's insane but sadly unsurprising given the fact that Macron made a complete mockery of the results of the previous elections, and altogether only has utter contempt for his people.

Also fascinating, like every single year, is the fact that China is - according to the Chinese people themselves - one of the most democratic countries in the world. According to the ranking, the world's most democratic countries are: Scandinavian countries, Switzerland, Ghana, Sri Lanka, India and... China!

Every year I get the same argument back so let me preempt it: no it's not because the Chinese people would be "afraid" to express their opinion.

If that were the case you'd see the same dynamic in other presumed "authoritarian" countries. But Russia scores -21, Belarus -9, Kazakhstan -31. If "fear of the regime" explained China's +14, why aren't Russians and Belarusians equally "afraid"?

Professor Jason Hickel - an economic anthropologist - also wrote a fascinating article on exactly this topic titled "Support for government in China: is the data accurate?" (open.substack.com/pub/jasonhicke…) in which he systematically dismantles the "fear bias" argument by examining studies that used anonymized and implicit methodologies. The verdict: across every methodology tested, Chinese people mean what they say.

So, for better or worse, as far as people's perceptions are concerned, we now live in a world where China is one of the most democratic countries in the world and France one of the least.

How does the US fare? Not great, far below China (although better than France): its ranking is "neutral" meaning there's roughly an equal amount of U.S. citizens who think they're a democracy as those who don't.

For the self-proclaimed "leader of the free world," that's not exactly a ringing endorsement...Image
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Another finding of the report that I found fascinating this year: there's now a higher perception of freedom of speech in China than in the immense majority of Western countries, including in the United States.

Meaning that when you ask the Chinese people, a higher proportion of them feel they "can criticize the government without consequences" than in the US.

I'm personally not surprised about this at all. I posted many times about the different initiatives taken by the Chinese government to encourage feedback and criticism, including the 12345 hotline, a 24/7 phone number you can call anywhere in China if you have any complaint that's related to the government (and which I myself called a few times).

And anyone familiar with China will tell you (and this is one way the Chinese are actually spiritually quite similar to the French), Chinese people LOVE to complain, and are definitely not shy about it. Speak about government policies to anyone in China and get ready for an hours-long dizzying discussion about the myriads of ways in which China does NOT work.

The notion that Chinese people can't complain is something only someone who's never shared a dinner table with a Chinese family could possibly believe...

AND, most importantly, as this report's results indicate, the Chinese government - unlike many Western governments - actively listens to and acts upon people's feedback (a striking example I stumbled upon just today: x.com/i/status/20531…). Which - last I checked - is supposed to be what democracy is all about: having your policies guided by the will of the people.

What's the freaking point of being allowed to complain or expose whatever government failure if nothing changes? 🤷‍♂️ That's not democracy, it's just theater.Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 24
Wow, this is huge, after months of speculation and the U.S. running a massive pre-emptive discreditation campaign (x.com/RnaudBertrand/…), DeepSeek-V4 is finally out!

I haven't studied it in depth but here are the most striking aspects as far as I can tell:

- Fully open sourced with open weights (available for download on huggingface: huggingface.co/deepseek-ai)

- Zero CUDA dependency anywhere in its stack, which is probably the biggest deal of all. For those who don't know, CUDA is Nvidia's software layer - the foundation nearly every frontier AI model in the world is built on. Except, as of today, DeepSeek V4, which can run entirely on Huawei Ascend chips via Huawei's CANN framework (finance.yahoo.com/sectors/techno…). Very concretely it means that China now not only has its own frontier AI models, but its own domestic AI stack, top to bottom.

- The prices are insanely low. V4-Pro is roughly 3x cheaper than GPT-5.5 on input and 8.6x cheaper on output. And V4-Flash is an order of magnitude cheaper still, at $0.14/$0.28 per million tokens vs OpenAI's $5/$30 - so 30-100x cheaper than GPT-5.5 (!). And remember, these are the prices DeepSeek charges on its own API - anyone can download the weights and run them for "free" on their own server.

- It is at or near the frontier on most benchmarks that matter. V4-Pro-Max matches or beats GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus 4.6 on competitive programming (Codeforces rating 3206), coding (LiveCodeBench 93.5), and math (HMMT 95.2, IMO AnswerBench 89.8). It trails the very newest GPT-5.5 and Opus 4.7 on a handful of the hardest agentic and knowledge benchmarks, but it's in the same league.

In effect the value proposition is: "Same league as frontier US AI, at a fraction of the price, open-source and freely modifiable, and hardware-agnostic - you can run it on whatever infrastructure you choose."

Which is insanely good. I now understand the need for a preemptive discreditation campaign: they had every reason to be worried. For the vast majority of use cases, you'd have to be a literal idiot to keep paying OpenAI or Anthropic's prices when this exists.
This 👇 is indeed interesting. It means:
a) V4-Pro is genuinely being served on Huawei chips (since limited by Huawei 950 supernode availability)
b) they expect far bigger compute scale in H2 2026, and that API prices will drop significantly further
Read 8 tweets
Apr 11
Wow, that's extremely rare for a U.S. treaty ally.

South Korea's president, addressing Israel: "It’s disappointing that you don’t even once reflect on the criticisms from people around the world who are suffering and struggling due to your relentless anti-human rights and anti-international law actions."

He said this after posting this yesterday (x.com/Jaemyung_Lee/s…), a video of IDF soldiers throwing a young Palestinian off a rooftop and commenting that "there is no difference between this and the Japanese wartime sexual slavery issue we raise, the massacre of Jews, or wartime killings."

Israel's Foreign Ministry responded that his post was "unacceptable" but President Lee obviously - and courageously - chose to double down 👇

Also probably says a lot about where U.S.-South Korea relations are at right now.
He's backed by other senior South Korean political figures, like Choo Mi-ae (the first female leader of South Korea's Democratic Party) 👇
Or Park Hong-geun, Minister of Planning and Budget, who calls on Israel to "break free from the chain of victimhood becoming perpetration" 👇
Read 4 tweets
Apr 6
So, if I got that right, here's the narrative:

- A US F-15E fighter jet got shot down over Iran, despite Trump saying 2 days beforehand in his nationwide address that Iran has "no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated." (apnews.com/article/donald…)

- The plane's weapons systems officer - a "highly respected Colonel," according to Trump - ejected from the plane and got "seriously wounded" (still according to Trump: truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru…)

- He still managed to "hike up a 7,000-foot [2.1km] mountain ridgeline and hide in a crevice" in the Zagros Mountains, despite his wounds (time.com/article/2026/0…)

- U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones started killing all "Iranian military-aged males believed to be a threat who got within three kilometers of [the American's location]" (x.com/ByChrisGordon/…)

- To retrieve him the U.S. managed to seize an "abandoned airport," 200 miles deep inside Iran, near Isfahan (bbc.com/news/articles/…), which happens to be where Iran's largest atomic scientific center is located (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isfahan_N…)

- They landed two MC-130 military transport planes in that airport (theaviationist.com/2026/04/05/u-s…) in an operation involving "hundreds of special forces troops and military personnel" (time.com/article/2026/0…)

- Both MC-130 planes got "stuck in the sand" and the U.S. destroyed them themselves "to prevent them from falling into Iranian hands" (theaviationist.com/2026/04/05/u-s…)

- They deployed "three new aircraft to extract all the U.S. personnel" on the ground (theaviationist.com/2026/04/05/u-s…)

- There are videos circulating online of "heavy clashes" with presumably Iranian missiles raining down in Kohgiluyeh County, in the Zagros Mountains during that night (x.com/Afshin_Ismaeli…)

- Iran sent pictures of the aftermath at the "abandoned airport" and it's a sight of utter destruction, with US plane and MH-6 helicopter parts scattered all over the ground, still smoking (turkiyetoday.com/region/wreckag…). Iran claims they are the ones who in fact destroyed all the aircraft.

- Meanwhile a second U.S. plane, an A-10 Warthog, also crashed on Friday near the Strait of Hormuz according to two U.S. officials speaking to the NYT (nytimes.com/live/2026/04/0…). In that instance too the lone pilot was apparently "safely rescued."

- In all this, after the multiple planes and helicopters destroyed or shot down, the documented heavy clashes, the "hundreds of special forces troops and military personnel" operating deep inside Iran, not a single US soldier was reported killed "or even wounded" (according to Trump: truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru…).

- And the 'highly respected Colonel' this was all for? No name. No photo. No interview. Nobody has spoken to him nor knows who he is.

So to sum up: anti-aircraft equipment that supposedly didn't exist shot down an F-15 (and, apparently, an A-10 Warthog the same day). A seriously wounded man climbed a 2.1km mountain. The US seized an airfield 200 miles inside a country it's at war with, next to one of its most strategic nuclear sites, and deployed hundreds of troops all apparently unimpeded. Lost two planes to "sand" and destroyed their own helicopters. Videos show heavy clashes, missiles raining down - but not a single person got "even wounded". And the man at the center of it all? Nobody knows who he is, completely anonymous, zero pictures, but Trump says he is "SAFE and SOUND." And so is the rescued A-10 Warthog pilot, who also remains anonymous.

Trump concludes this all proves the US has "achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies" (truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru…), despite the whole episode only happening because Iran shot his planes out of the sky.

Basically, the only thing that's "overwhelming" here is the audacity of the storytelling...
Iran's count is that the US lost 12 aircraft in the rescue operation (on top of course of the downed F-15 and A-10 Warthog) 👇

Which, if accurate, would be a disaster of unprecedented proportions.
x.com/upholdreality/…

Heck, even the count semi-officially acknowledged by the US (5-6 aircraft destroyed: 2 MC-130Js, 1-2 Little Birds, F-15E, A-10) is remarkably disastrous for what's being sold as a triumph.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 23
The ultimate proof that Iran has, in fact, escalation dominance here.

Iran already said "there has been no direct or indirect contact" with Trump (). He basically chickened out after Iran's threats on desalination.

Incredibly, Iran took on the US symmetrically and won.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/20…
By the way, the fact that everyone's first instinct, including in the US, is to automatically assume Trump is lying and to wait for Iran's statement to understand what's going on is immensely telling in and of itself.
Trump is now speaking about sharing power with the Ayatollah 😅
Read 6 tweets
Mar 19
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if infrastructure like this 👇 gets blown up, as of this moment it will take at least a decade to recover from this war - and the truth is that the world's energy picture is probably changed forever.

This single facility 👇produced roughly 20% of global LNG supply (aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18…) and, as of 2011, had taken $70 billion to build (energyintel.com/0000017b-a7be-…).

What makes this even worse is that Iran's strike on this was retaliation after Israel attacked their South Pars gas field which draws from the same natural gas reservoir, which is the world's largest by far (9,700 km² - about the size of Qatar itself).

Heck, on the list of the 25 largest natural gas fields (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n…) this single reservoir holds roughly 40% of their combined recoverable reserves - and is nearly 6 times bigger than the 2nd biggest field in the world. And, unlike many of the others on the list, it's only at 10% depletion (meaning 90% of the gas is still there).

Which means that, probably for many years, a huge share of the gas from the world's largest reservoir simply won't be extractable, as infrastructure on both sides - Qatar's and Iran's - has now been blown up.

From a global energy supply perspective, we're deep into worst-case scenario territory.
Even Trump realizes just how catastrophically bad this is 👇.

He fails to mention it's entirely caused by himself, though. A totally avoidable war he started.
The Israelis' reply: "Trump knew, we're joined at the hip in this" 👇
Read 8 tweets

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