Thread by @dataandpolitics

🍑 A complete analysis of Georgia turnout, with an important methodological note.

TLDR: Harris remains well-positioned to win Georgia, but needs slightly more Election Day turnout than my initial analysis suggested.

Here's the complete data explaining why.

First, a clarification:

Between 2020 and 2024, Georgia's Secretary of State began reporting "active, registered voters" rather than total registered voters in turnout calculations.

What's an "active voter"?

Despite some research, I struggled to find a clear definition.

Importantly, inactive voters can still vote - they're just not expected to.

For example, in Fulton:

58.1% of 2024 (active + inactive) voters = 521,177 votes

58.1% of 2020 (active + inactive) voters = 468,548 votes

Same percentage, ~53K vote difference.

However, the SOS only reports 757,708 active voters.

I learned about this reporting change thanks to helpful users who pointed it out overnight.

You can see this change in this screenshot from the SOS website.

Going forward, I'll be using registered voter data (active + inactive) for total voters to ensure consistency.GeorgiaVotes.com

This methodological clarification doesn't change the top line implications of my analysis.

Harris has hit her necessary benchmarks and is well-positioned.

Trump's path to victory requires something counterintuitive:

Election Day turnout must stay at or below 2020 levels - when we were in the middle of a global pandemic.

Now, let's look at the complete data. All 2020 numbers come from Election Summary Reports, current data from , and the Secretary of State.GeorgiaVotes.com

Fulton County:

2020:

- Registered: 806,451
- Total votes: 528,777 (65.57%)
- ED votes: 60,025 (7.44% of registered)

2024:

- Registered: 897,036 (+90,585)
- Voted so far: 439,024 (48.9%)

Needed to match 2020 total: 89,753

DeKalb County:

2020:
- Registered: 546,711
- Total votes: 373,439 (68.3%)

2024:

- Registered: 594,244 (+47,533)
- Voted so far: 290,898 (49.0%)

Needed to match 2020 total: 82,541

Cobb County:

2020:

- Registered: 537,611
- Total votes: 396,551 (73.8%)
- ED votes: 71,117 (13.2%)

2024:

- Registered: 592,283 (+54,672)
- Voted so far: 312,150 (52.7%)

Needed to match 2020 total: 84,401

Gwinnett County:

2020:

- Registered: 581,467
- Total votes: 408,268 (70.2%)
- ED votes: 73,344 (12.6%)

2024:

- Registered: 658,188 (+76,721)
- Voted so far: 319,302 (48.5%)

Needed to match 2020 total: 88,966

Clayton County:

2020:

- Registered: 193,326
- Total votes: 112,986 (58.4%)
- ED votes: 20,525 (10.6%)

2024:

- Registered: 215,764 (+22,438)
- Voted so far: 85,663 (39.7%)

Needed to match 2020 total: 27,323

Chatham County:

2020:
- Registered: 200,388
- Total votes: 134,210 (67.0%)
- ED votes: 37,475 (18.7%)

2024:

- Registered: 239,130 (+38,742)
- Voted so far: 100,176 (41.9%)

Needed to match 2020 total: 34,034

What this means for Election Day needs compared to 2020:

Fulton: needs 27,883 MORE voters

DeKalb: needs 34,250 MORE

Gwinnett: needs 14,346 MORE

Cobb: needs 12,081 MORE

Clayton: needs 6,792 MORE

Chatham: could have 3,951 FEWER

This is why looking only at percentages was misleading.

The denominators have changed too much for direct comparisons between 2020 and 2024.

Raw numbers tell us most large, Democratic counties need to exceed their 2020 Election Day performance to match their total 2020 votes.

Why is matching or exceeding 2020 Election Day numbers possible — and even very likely?

Several key factors:

1. No global pandemic. In 2020, Democrats heavily favored absentee voting due to COVID.

Those same voters are more likely to vote in person this time.

2. Ground game advantage.

The Harris campaign has built a massive GOTV operation and has precise targets for viable turnout in each area.

3. Rural voter exhaustion vs Blue potential.

Following Trump's criticism of mail voting, rural voters shifted heavily to early voting this cycle.

This means:

- Few potential voters remain in red counties.

- Large pools of Democratic voters still available.

- It's easier to move turnout from 55% to 65% than from 75% to 85%.

- Blue counties have both the voters and the campaign infrastructure to drive Election Day turnout.

If the election were held today, Trump would likely be slightly ahead - but that's because so many of his voters have already cast their ballots.

But the bottom line is that we have Election Day still to go.

In 2020, the pandemic suppressed in-person voting, especially among Democrats who opted for mail ballots.

That artificial suppression of Election Day voting makes it a remarkably low bar to clear in 2024.

This voter status distinction actually makes the story more interesting:

There are even more potential voters available than the "active" numbers suggest.

Transparency in election analysis means acknowledging when our understanding of the data evolves.

Thank you to everyone helping ensure accuracy.