Thread by @andersostlund

Great thread by Sergej. I'd like to add some comments and reflections. First, I am not sure the West has any goal for a post-war world. The idea now appears to be mostly to wait and see, do as little as possible, make statements of concern, put the head in the sand. 1.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1852745496877572185

It must be really nice for Russia to know that those it consider its mortal enemies protect Russia from losing the war. Talk about strategic and tactic freedom. Like playing a board game with your mother when you were a kid and she cheats to your advantage. 2.

About the outcome I am fairly sure the West is just making a bad situation worse by procrastination and cowardice. In the early days of the war Ukraine was willing to negotiate the Minsk agreements, and even in 2022 there might have been room for negotiations. 3.

Now my feeling is that most Ukrainians consider not only Russia but also Russians at large to be eternal enemies, and that will make any reconciliation much harder. The demand for justice, and revenge, is growing despite war fatigue. 4.

Russia itself was also pretty untouched by war in 2022 but now the accumulation of long range attacks, sanctions , repression and domestic casualties are piling up. The pressure is growing behind the curtain of fake stability. 5.

Arch appeaser Jake Sullivan is afraid of a downward spiral for Russia but what is going on in Russia is already a downward spiral, not steep enough for my taste but probably much steeper than what Sullivan hopes. 6.

Russia will not be able to keep the economy going when its putting all its resources into the military. Drones and tanks don't produce bread and smart phones. Soldiers are not teachers and nurses. Russia's economy is doomed to collapse unless Russia change direction. 7.

If Russia would be victorious on the battlefield in Ukraine it will also not end the conflict. Russia wouldn't stop there but continue in Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and other places. The West would have to do something then too. The economic pressure on Russia would continue to grow and the downward spiral would continue. 8.

And it's not like arch appeaser Sullivan and Sun Tzu Joe is containing the war to Ukraine either. Thanks to their and the collective West's inertia, cowardice and general stupidity the war has already metastasized to the Middle East, and North Korea is now also a combatant. 9.

So what we have now is not only a continued downward spiral for Russia, one that will ultimately lead to chaos when Putin's is gone and his entourage starts fighting to fill the vacuum, but also a conflict that is already involving three continents. 10.

It's not too hard to imagine Venezuela and other Latin American states to be pulled into the general war. Or Burma, Taiwan and Vietnam. Or the wars in northern Africa spreading south. 11.

It's also not too hard to imagine civil disorder in the U.S. and acts of sabotage and terror in the EU. Then we will soon enter into something that, if the dishonest western leaders dare to call it by its real name, is a world war. 12.

By that stage the choice will be between fighting back for real or risk losing the once thriving western civilisation for good. Whatever the choice undertakers will get busy in the West as it will be way too late to spare western societies from the impact. 13.

As with all sorts of illnesses it's better to treat the root cause instead of taking an aspirin and pretend nothing is bad. The root cause of the wars and the turmoil is Russia, Russian imperial culture, Russian barbarism, and the Russian people. 14.

Giving everything Russian a beating it wont forget for centuries is the one thing that might make the troubles go away. That is really the only way as all other alternatives leads to more doom and threatens civilisations all over the globe. 15.

It will not be easy for the appeasement alcoholics to stop but they have to, because if they don't we are doomed. The only way forward is a sober assessment of the situation that leads to the conclusion that Russia must be defeated as soon as possible, whatever the consequences for the so called Russian society. 16.

Once Russia is stopped, pushed back and defeated we can deal with China, Iran and all the other aggressors, many of which will fall when they lose Russian support. Only then we will have a stabile and peaceful world. Only then we can go back to planning for a brighter future. 17.

But for all this to happen we need leaders with courage and capacity to lead, and I see neither now. The outlook is thus very bad but the trajectories are nevertheless set, the forces are in motion, the Axis is stepping up aggression, we have no choice but to finally deal with it. 18. End of rant.