Thread by @alexgazmararian

With the election around the corner, what does political science tell us about how the green transition affects voting?

Here’s a thread jam-packed with climate politics and elections research ⬇️

1) Carbon-intensive regions and industries:

Pennsylvania and fracking are in the news—and for good reason.

Research by @MichaelSances and @hyeyoungyou shows how the fracking boom made these areas more Republican journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…

My research shows how coal’s decline contributed to the partisan realignment in coal country, including Pennsylvania: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/73…

Vehicle electrification in the American auto corridor has also started to push vulnerable workers to support Republican presidential candidates, as I show with @Lkrashinsky alexgaz.scholar.princeton.edu/sites/g/files/…

This isn’t just an American phenomenon. Germans in high-pollution industries have become more supportive of the AfD: osf.io/876dr

It’s not all electoral backlash. @dianebolet , @fergusgreen , and Mikel González-Eguino show how “just transition” agreements negotiated in Spain increased support for the party behind coal phase-out plans: cambridge.org/core/journals/…

2) Policies affecting consumers:

Cities that have banned polluting cars, such as Milan, have witnessed increased support for populist right parties: cambridge.org/core/journals/…

@ErikVoeten research shows how taxes on household natural gas consumption in the Netherlands bolstered support for radical right parties: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

3) Clean energy infrastructure:

@leahstokes finds electoral backlash to wind turbine construction in Canada: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

A big open question in this election is whether voters will (1) recognize the benefits of green federal investments and (2) reward the responsible politicians.

Fortunately, political scientists have conducted considerable research on “policy feedbacks" annualreviews.org/content/journa…

On feedback effects, check out:
@leahstokes Short Circuiting Policy:
amazon.com/Short-Circuiti…

@dhopkins1776 Stable Condition
amazon.com/Stable-Conditi…

@EricPatashnik Countermobilization
amazon.com/Countermobiliz…

And also my book with @dustintingley: uncertainfuturesbook.com

4) Climate impacts:

We’re also starting to feel global warming’s effects, and that has political implications.

Chad Hazlett and @mmildenberger show how California wildfire exposure led to more pro-environment voting within Dem but not GOP areas: cambridge.org/core/journals/…

@sabrinabarias and @Chris_W_Blair show how Hurricane Iain temporarily led to increased support for climate policy action: cambridge.org/core/journals/…

@RmnHoffmann and colleagues show how climate extremes led to increased environmental concern and voting for Green parties across Europe: nature.com/articles/s4155…

Swiss voters also responded to flooding with increased support for pro-climate policies: cambridge.org/core/journals/…

How politicians respond to these climate disasters could matter for their electoral effects. @mm_bechtel and Jens Hainmueller show how, after the 2002 Elbe flooding in Germany, voters rewarded the incumbent for disaster relief spending: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…

This thread only scratches the surface.

Climate change isn’t the main issue that affects elections. But this thread shows how the green transition still can affect voting.

It's mostly a story of backlash, but that may change with the green industrial policy pivot.