Among the battleground states, Trump leads in Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, while narrowing the 2020 margins in Virginia and Minnesota. However, Georgia and Pennsylvania, two of the most valuable states in the Electoral College, are close.
OTHER KEY STATES
In states that will decide the Senate, Republicans hold solid leads, with wide margins in Texas, Ohio, and Montana.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTION
With these results, the contest remains open on the eve of Election Day. Pennsylvania emerges as the state most likely to decide the race, with its 19 electoral votes potentially securing the Electoral College majority for Trump.
Data collected from November 3-4: AZ (875 respondents); GA (1112); MI (1113); NV (707); NC (1219); PA (1840); WI (869). The margin of error is ±2 pp for PA, ±4 pp for NV, and ±3 pp for the other key states.
Data collected from November 1-4: MN (2065 respondents); MT (752); OH (1022); TX (2434); VA (2202). Margin of error is ±2 pp for TX, VA, and MN, ±4 pp for OH and MT
📊ATLAS POLL - US ELECTIONS
Vice-President Kamala Harris appears 1.6 pp behind Donald Trump in the first Atlas poll conducted after Joe Biden dropped out of the race, between July 23 and 25. In the poll conducted in June, Biden trailed Trump by 5.2 pp.
📈In a head-to-head scenario, excluding third-party candidates, Trump leads Harris by 2.1 pp.
📉Harris’ net popularity is -3 pp, virtually tied with Trump, whose image benefitted from the attempt on his life. On the other hand, Republican vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance appears at -13 pp, comparable with Biden’s unpopularity (-12 pp).
Compared to our previous poll released on April 5th, Macron increased his vote share by 2.4 points while Le Pen dropped by 1.8 points. The number of blank, null, and undecided votes was reduced only slightly, from 18% to 17.4% of the electorate.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger slightly improved his job approval and public image ratings following the @washingtonpost release of a taped conversation with @realdonaldtrump.
Barack Obama is currently the most popular political figure in Georgia. Governor Brian Kemp is the least popular. Perdue and Loeffler lag further behind Ossoff and Warnock in popularity than they do in terms of vote intention.
If the presidential election in Georgia took place tomorrow, Biden would win by a slightly wider margin. This is mostly driven by voters that did not vote in the actual election but that declare they would now cast a ballot.
Barack Obama is currently the most popular political figure in Georgia. Governor Brian Kemp is the least popular. Perdue and Loeffler lag further behind Ossoff and Warnock in popularity than they do in terms of vote intention.
If the presidential election in Georgia took place tomorrow, Biden would win by a slightly wider margin. This is mostly driven by voters that did not vote in the actual election but that declare they would now cast a ballot.