Thread by @DavidOAtkins

MAGA world is convinced they are going to win and win big. They are all telling themselves it will be a blowout and that the only way Dems can win is by cheating.

But if Trump loses, he will lose fair and square. Here's a little thread to explain exactly how: /1

MAGA is losing among women by record margins. Trump is waging a horrific sexist, and women are furious.

MAGA may want to remind themselves that the GOP was terrified of overturning Roe for fear of backlash. Well, guess what? It's here. You thought it wasn't coming. It is. /2

Young people *hate* Trump. The MAGA movement is trying to overturn a century's worth of economic and social progress. Outside of a few weird incels and young GOPs, GenZ and Millennials are not having it. MAGA is losing by 15 to 20 points with the Swifties and the Brats. /3

Seniors! Harris is winning among *seniors*! That's what happens when your movement promises to privatize Medicare & Social Security, defiles standards of decency & dignity in campaign rhetoric, and lets your opponent run on bipartisanship and patriotism. Seniors vote reliably. /4

The MAGA movement uses vicious racist rhetoric to maximize the white vote. The problem is that most college grad whites find that (and the sexism and Bible thumping) gross and obnoxious.

You are losing college grads whites by over 20 points, and every year that segment grows. /5

The MAGA movement relies on evangelicals as the cornerstone of its support, and the means of growth among Hispanics despite anti-Latino racism.

But that overt Christian supremacy turns off normies. The fastest growing religion in America is "none."

"Nones" and normies vote. /6

MAGA has built a brand around hating cities--using foul and vicious language about cities and density, calling city dwellers "vermin" and "bug people", etc.

But most Americans live in cities. Most others live in close-rung suburbs. Our numbers are growing. We hear your hate. /7

MAGA sees a coalition of the MAGA right with Tulsi and RFK Jr and thinks it has a "Unity Party."

But those circles were already overlapping. The pro-Putin pseudo "left" and anti-vax conspiracy loons were already trending MAGA in 2016. You didn't pick up much there. /8

In the meantime, Dems have picked up a coalition of normal decent anti-fascist voters who span the ideological spectrum from AOC to Liz Cheney, endorsed by the biggest pop culture icons. That's an actual unity coalition.

Would you really be shocked it could hit 50%? Don't be. /9

Many MAGAs think they are going to march to victory because the polling is close, and polling underestimated Trump in 2016 and 2020.

But pollsters have been correcting for that. They are desperate not to make the same mistake again. And they may well be overcorrecting. /10

There are many dishonest GOP pollsters with opaque or bizarre assumptions. Many others have calibrated based on prior 2020 votes, potentially missing electoral shifts.

Selzer has been a canary in the coal mine to counter polling CW that favored Dems. Don't discount it now. /11

Many MAGAs think they will win based on stronger early vote. But GOP early votes are mostly cannibalizing 2020 e-day votes.

Most of the *new* voters are younger, seniors & especially women. Women are crushing early vote. Many Dems are waiting for e-day with COVID behind us. /12

The best early vote numbers for MAGA are in Nevada. But Clark County still looms large, and Dem e-day votes will be big. NV will likely be very close.

Meanwhile in PA Dems have a formidable 400K vote lead. It will be difficult for GOPs to overtake. /13

And that's assuming no crossover votes. Internal metrics suggest Harris stands to pick up as many as 10% of the GOP vote among disaffected frequent Haley voters that MAGA isn't even fighting for as it hunts for non-voting incel bros.

Many 2x Trump voters won't do it again. /14

Finally...ground game. Campaign pros know that field can make about 2-3 points difference, all else being equal.

Harris has the biggest, most effective, most precisely targeted field operation in American history. MAGA has an amateur joke operation run by Kirk and Musk. /15

MAGA fired all the experienced field ops and handed the keys over to memelords using unproven methods trying to get couchsurfing bro voters who aren't showing up so far.

Maybe they show up, maybe they don't. But only one side knows what it's doing on the ground. /16

Trump's camp, meanwhile, is so drowning in conspiracy garbage that they are using volunteers who could be doing traditional field to harass poll workers to stop "voter fraud" that Does. Not. Exist.

Total wasted effort chasing makebelieve snarks and huffledragons. /17

None of this is to say that Harris will certainly win. It will likely be close, and Trump could well prevail--at least in the Electoral College, America's peewee trophy DEI equity boost for conservative rural voters. He very likely will not win the real popular vote. /18

But if Harris wins--and it's possible she could win big if pollsters were overcorrecting for 2020--then all the signs were there.

If MAGA loses, we all know how. It's right there in the numbers, the coalitions and the tactics.

It will be fair & square. No cheating or fraud. /19

If he loses, Trump will whine & lie. Elon will whine & spread disinformation. Both will encourage MAGA to do stupid, illegal things for them. They are liars & manipulators.

But know that if you lose, MAGA, you lost fairly. Don't let Trump rob you of your dignity and humanity./20

If MAGA loses, there will always be another shot in 2028, because the good guys believe in democracy.

MAGA doesn't. Which is yet another big part of why so many of us are coming out as citizens of all ideologies to outvote you--so we have a chance to vote again.
/end

Blech. Typo in the second post.

I miss my edit button, but I refuse to pay Elon anything. 😡