We won't have the full picture of turnout differentials for a while (states take weeks to months to publish Election Day individual turnout history) but looking at county data a bit of a pattern is emerging.
Outside of the battlegrounds, similar to 2022, Dem turnout seems to have cratered, and there were likely GOP persuasion gains, resulting in those bigger swings in states like NY, NJ, MA, FL, etc
Inside the battlegrounds, the turnout variations are much smaller, but generally turnout in Dem counties is running just slightly behind 2020, while GOP turnout is running just ahead. Couple that with slight persuasion gains, and you have the small shifts that won it for Trump.
This paints a picture of a very unfavorable national environment for Dems creating strong headwinds, which the Harris campaign was able to limit in the battlegrounds with superior field efforts, but not enough to win.
Someone reminded me that I posted this last month. I should have given it more credibility. I mentioned the potential for a Trump turnout advantage, along with swings to Trump with young voters, both appear to have materialized tombonier.substack.com/p/how-trump-ca…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
