Uncharacteristically, I'll say that Dems should stop beating up on themselves and firing volleys back and forth. (They can get back to that later.) American voters - as I've been warning for years - are changing, and becoming more like Trump. That's hard to counteract. /1
Maybe the mistake we all made was thinking America would elect a Black woman. I had a gut feeling they would not. But in any case, when elections are about feelings, fantasies, boredom, and resentment, the candidate who services those delusions has a natural advantage. /2
Democrats are understandably focused on voters who flipped because they're suffering economically. But a far larger number of voters werfe un-flippable and not poor! They're the comfortable Trumpers who think, like, Canada conspired with Michelle O to hijack voting machines. /3
When millions of people think that way, you can't agonize *too* much over losing another 3 pts during a global backlash against inflation (that no govt could have stopped and that the US handled well).
Especially when you've won impt House/Senate races in all those states./4
The Democrats should definitely have a reckoning about their inability to recognize that becoming the party of the college-educated (which is what the GOP used to be) has affected their ability to message. And you're seeing some rumbles already. /5
But no Dem can change the fact that millions of ungettable GOP votes are set in stone not because of economic conditions - which were the best any candidate could have hoped for - but because even relatively affluent voters have spent years marinating in complete craziness. /6
And I'll add, again, that this is not some post-hoc rationalization based on this week. I've written about this for years, and warned about it at length in a book I wrote more than four years ago. That's really why I just couldn't be optimistic about this election. /7x
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When I was a professor at the totally woke Naval War College, I had fellowship 20 yrs ago with the Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs, which produced this very woke study about going to war in places like, say, Iran. Some of my very woke predictions:
/1
"The United States and the regime in Tehran are avowed enemies, and for good reason. Iran not only is trying to acquire nuclear arms, but is a proven state sponsor of terror."
The same people who had an aneurysm about Lloyd Austin going AWOL for two days are going to defend Hegseth, the most reckless and unqualified SECDEF in history, to the bitter end. /1
You know better than this, @cdrsalamander, and I know that from talking to you. Your comments are in bad faith. But for others who are curious, I'll explain.
NWC's curriculum revision 50 years ago was to prevent another civil-military failure on the level of Vietnam. /1
VADM Turner was explicit about this, and it's been a guiding principle ever since to make sure that NWC graduates are intelligent strategic contributors in the room, instead of pure operators who have no idea how to advise or confer with civilians. /2
Sal is focused on about 30 minutes of a 90 minute seminar out of some 20 meetings. But as I told my students: You need to recognize what drives the arguments of the civilians in the room. If you don't, you'll be the guy sent out for coffee while the grownups talk. /3
The Israelis are calling this a "preemptive" strike. Whether you agree or disagree with this attack, these are not - from what we know tonight - "preemptive" strikes. The Israelis are using that word for a reason. Read on. /1
In tradition and international law, a "preemptive" attack is a spoiling attack, meant to strike an enemy who is *imminently* going to strike you. This is what Israel did in 1967, getting the jump on Arab armies that were about to attack. That's usually permissable. /2
What's going on right now are *preventive* strikes, which are usually NOT permissable in law or tradition. This is striking an enemy far in advance, because you believe time and situation is favorable to you. That, for example, is Japan striking the US in 1941. /3