How to make it this cycle - a trading guide: 🧵
1. Don't sell one penny worth of crypto until inauguration day (at the very earliest).
1. Don't sell one penny worth of crypto until inauguration day (at the very earliest).
2a. If you are a normie who has 0-5% of your portfolio in crypto, it is not too late. The rally has not even begun to run its course.
Allocate to 5-10% of your total portfolio into BTC or IBIT immediately and worry about the other stuff later.
Allocate to 5-10% of your total portfolio into BTC or IBIT immediately and worry about the other stuff later.
2b. If you are already max long crypto, allocate 40-80% of your crypto portfolio into a long-term BTC position and designate the rest for active trading.
3. The market is about to get white hot / extremely volatile. Maintain discipline and keep line items concentrated. Within your active portfolio, rotate tokens into other tokens, not into fiat (for now).
4. Maintain an exit metric. Mine is Bitcoin MVRV-Z > 6.0. This may come quickly, but my best guess is that we get there sometime in 2026/7. Finger-in-the-air guess is that it coincides with a $250k BTC price.
5. Until then, memorize these mantras (h/t @AviFelman):
a. alt szns don't last long. be nimble
b. don't buy underperforming memes. only consider "blue chips" like DOGE, WIF, PEPE etc or low-mcap lotto tickets
c. ride the strongest horse in a sector. don't spread yourself thin
a. alt szns don't last long. be nimble
b. don't buy underperforming memes. only consider "blue chips" like DOGE, WIF, PEPE etc or low-mcap lotto tickets
c. ride the strongest horse in a sector. don't spread yourself thin
6. For DeFi, play close attention to the SEC commissioner nomination. If it's @HesterPeirce or someone similar, DeFi will roof. Strongest horse is debatable, but I'm looking at Aave, Jupiter, Aero, and Jito.
Projects getting sued by the current SEC should continue to rip.
Projects getting sued by the current SEC should continue to rip.
7. For AI, strongest horse = TAO. Not sure when AI really starts to outperform as a sector, but it's probably after some of the other excitement calms down. It's an idiosyncratic trade.
8. Be careful with DePin. Legal tokenized equity means that a lot of these projects won't be priced using "network value" (like ETH & SOL are), they'll be comp'd to companies with way lower market caps and far greater profitablity. I am avoiding this sector.
9. RWAs are interesting as a sector going into the new regulatory environment. ONDO seems like the strongest horse.
10. For safer (but less asymmetric) returns, it's probably hard to beat COIN, MSTR, WULF, and GLXY.
11. Leverage is safe ONLY when the price action is smooth. Do not get over your skis...MILD LEVERAGE ONLY.
12. When you hit your exit metrics, BE DISCIPLINED. Ignore all the bullposts calling for insane/stupid new heights. GTFO of your alts and rotate everything into BTC and fiat.
13. Do not chop yourself up on ETH vs. SOL. Both will do very well this cycle. Pick one or the other as your long term bet and rotate back and forth between them only at local extremes on the SOL/ETH chart.
14. DO NOT OVERTRADE. There is enormous alpha in holding line items with conviction. If you constantly FOMO out of your bags and in into the tokens you perceive to be outperforming your bags, you will underperform BTC by a wide margin.
15. Stay LOCKED IN. Pay close attention to CT/Telegram/Discord, watch the @1000xPod each week, and remain hyper-disciplined. Complacency kills.
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