And now on global risks. Trump’s effects will not be confined to within the US borders. He will increase uncertainty around the world. My assessment is that his impact may be even more negative globally than nationally.
The world is facing global challenges -- climate change, global pandemics, regulation and redirection of AI, and adaptation to aging. Global problems require supranational institutions, and those are already weak and ailing. Trump will further undercut them.
Trump’s transactional approach sits ill with global institutions. But worse, he will likely actively try to undermine several of those, including the United Nations and perhaps even the World Bank. What will happen to NATO is also uncertain.
An equally major set of consequences will follow from his undermining of US democracy. US democracy has never been perfect, and cynical and sometimes disastrous US foreign policy meant that US and Western democracies were only imperfect role models for other countries.
All the same, the weakening of US democracy and institutions will further motivate other authoritarian, populist leaders, and demoralize those for democracy, human and civil rights media freedom around the world. If democracy fails in the US, it is much more likely to fail elsewhere as well.
Trump’s AI policy may also have negative international consequences. They may intensify the US-China AI race, which is a barrier to both the smart regulation of AI and to redirecting AI in a socially more beneficial direction.
Trump’s non-regulation of Silicon Valley may also bring the spread of more manipulative and dangerous technologies around the world in a way that may destabilize many nascent democracies.
If AI continues to go towards more and more automation and manipulation, this will bad news for many emerging economies, whose main economic resource is their people. More automation may spell trouble for them.
The biggest risk from Trump may be in further destabilizing the most dangerous regions in the world: the Middle East and Taiwan. These are the two faultlines that are capable of triggering regional or even global war.
Trump’s Middle East policy is highly unpredictable and the region is already a powder keg. Trump egging on Israel towards widening its war, or making statements that question the power balance in the region could have far-reaching and dangerous implications.
Likewise, Trump may question the US commitment to the security of Taiwan or further aggravate China on the issue. My guess is that China does not currently want an active conflict, but it may be forced into one if US policy becomes inconsistent or crosses certain lines.
All of this amounts to bad news for democracy around the world, for stability, and for the already troubled and problematic international institutions. Uncertainty and anxiety await us globally as well.
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