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eye zen hour

@eyezenhour

Nov 14 • 16 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The FBI just raided this 26-year-old's apartment.

His crime? Building a website predicting Trump's win better than every poll in the world.

They tried to shut him down. Instead, they made him a legend.

Here's why it made him more unstoppable than ever:🧵

Meet Shayne Coplan, founder & CEO of @Polymarket

Yesterday, FBI agents stormed his home, seizing his phone and electronics

His crime? Building a website where people bet on future events

The raid might be a blessing in disguise for him

Here's why:

Read the room - People are sick of big-govt overstepping

Polymarket dominated election predictions

Now, it's become a bigger pop culture rebel after this raid publicity

Shayne has raised $70M from Vitalik & Thiel's VC firm, Founders Fund

He's not going anywhere ⤵️

Prediction markets aren't just gambling sites

They're the most accurate forecasting tools ever created

How accurate?
• Better than polls
• Better than expert predictions
• Better than government forecasts

The numbers are staggering...

These markets predicted:

• 90% of election outcomes
• Major scientific breakthroughs
• Economic crashes
• Global events

Traditional forecasting tools? They got half of these wrong

But here's where it gets interesting:

The U.S. Gov uses prediction markets themselves

- DARPA spent millions studying them
- The CIA uses them to forecast global events

Yet they're raiding innovators for building the same thing

The truth? Prediction markets are unstoppable...

Why? Because they're just math and code

You can't raid an equation. You can't arrest an algorithm

You can't shut down decentralized networks

Polymarket was brilliantly designed as a layer 2 blockchain on #Ethereum

The market makers learned from crypto:

• No central servers
• No company headquarters
• No single point of failure

Just pure information flow

This isn't about gambling — it's about the future of forecasting

Want to shut down a prediction market? Here's what happens:

They're like a hydra: Cut off one head, two more appear

Prediction markets reveal uncomfortable truths:

• About elections
• About economics
• About human behavior

A crystal ball algorithm clearly feels threatening to people in power

That's why they're feared
That's why they're fought
That's why they'll win

And Shayne's raid? Will he be arrested? What's next?

His phone is gone. Whatever

If he's arrested, Trump will pardon him with Ross Ulbricht

But his code lives on. Dozens of others are building alongside him too

The future is already here. It just isn't evenly distributed yet

And no raid can stop that. So, what happens next?

The next wave of prediction markets will be:

• Fully decentralized
• Run by DAOs
• Immune to raids

Think crypto in 2009.
Think torrents in 2001.
Think the internet in 1995.

The cat's out of the bag:

Every time authorities shut one down, the code gets:

• More resilient
• More distributed
• More unstoppable

Just like they couldn't stop BitTorrent...
Just like they couldn't stop Bitcoin...

They won't stop this

The final irony?

The same agencies raiding prediction markets today will be using them tomorrow

Because when it comes to seeing the future, nothing beats the wisdom of mass populations

Remember this moment

Years from now, people will ask:

"Where were you when prediction markets went mainstream?"

Some will say: "I watched them get raided"

Others will say: "I helped build them"

Which side of history will you be on?

https://twitter.com/883752230/status/1857104780226621706

Thanks for reading. If you enjoyed this:

1. Follow me @eyezenhour for more thought-provoking content
2. Repost this thread if you found it insightful

https://twitter.com/883752230/status/1857104780226621706

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