Thread by @Heidi__Matthews

Today's ICC arrest warrants against Israeli PM Netanyahu & Yoav Gallant—and Hamas' Deif—are momentous. This is the first time Western-allied leaders have been charged by an international court with war crimes and crimes against humanity. A 🧵on what we have—and don't have—today.

First, note that the pre-trial chamber decisions to issue the warrants have been kept secret to protect witnesses and the ongoing investigations. The ICC has issued summaries of the decisions here icc-cpi.int/news/situation… and here
icc-cpi.int/news/situation…

The pre-trial chamber also rejected Israel's challenge to the ICC's jurisdiction—here icc-cpi.int/news/situation…—as well as its request to stay proceedings— here icc-cpi.int/court-record/i…. I'll address the warrants first, then these decisions.

A major loss today is warrants for Haniyeh & Sinwar, also requested by the Prosecutor in May, when they were still alive. Israel's policy of killing Hamas leaders instead of attempting to bring them to trial means we won't ever get a full international legal accounting of Oct 7.

Of course, Israel also claims it killed Mohammed Deif, leader of the Al-Qassam Brigades, last July (). Technically, the warrant against him was issued because the Prosecutor is unable to verify Deif's death.timesofisrael.com/report-israel-…

On a political level, this move also contributes to perceptions of the ICC's legitimacy. It makes the warrants appear more 'balanced', in that it is not just Israeli leaders who are being credibly accused of international crimes, but also Hamas.

[ach, things have gotten very busy, but I will return to this thread later!]

[okay, back at it...] Substantively, the chamber found that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Netanyahu & Gallant are individually criminally responsible for *most*, but not all, the crimes alleged by the Prosecutor. Notably, extermination was left out.

Because the decisions are secret, we don't know why this is the case. It's not the end of the story, however, as the Prosecutor can refile in response to whatever deficiencies the Chamber has identified. The main thing is that the core of extermination is there.

That core consists of the finding that Netanyahu & Gallant "created conditions of life calculated to bring about the destruction of part of the civilian population in Gaza, which resulted in the death of civilians, including children due to malnutrition and dehydration".

This is A Big Deal, not least because the "conditions of life" element is also found in one mode of the crime of genocide. It was this element of genocide that the International Court of Justice focused on in its last order against Israel. (Pics from ICC Elements of Crimes).

Here's the relevant portion of that order, from May 2024. The Court relied on the factual finding that Israel's evacuation orders did not protect civilians from the risk of destruction, which had been created by Israel's denial of humanitarian aid and other basic necessities.