Thread by @mikealbertus

I’ve had many interesting conversations about the election & what the next Trump administration will bring. Is the US set for authoritarianism? Will we wall ourselves off from the world? Is it a new dawn of American prosperity? Will Trump rewire the political landscape? 🧵1/N

The best way to understand what’s about to happen in my view is through the lens of populism 2/N

Trump is a classic populist. Attack institutions & “the establishment”, including the media, “elites”, and government. And promise a nostalgia-tinged return to the basics and “common sense”. A return to the people being in charge. A classic take:

3/Njournalofdemocracy.org/articles/popul…

That helps explain his big election win too. Of course, the economy and anti-incumbent effects lingering from the pandemic’s aftermath was huge and can’t be overstated. And how people acquire information matters, sentiments toward immigration, etc. 4/N

But it’s impossible to ignore how much American trust in institutions across the board – Congress, the courts, the media, etc – has declined. People don’t have faith in government and the establishment

5/Nnews.gallup.com/poll/508169/hi…

Enter the populist. Cut government waste and inefficiency? Hell yeah. Slash taxes? I’m with you. Protect American jobs? You’re speaking my language. Goose the economy? Sign me up. Keep my child tax credits, social security, health care? Sounds good 6/N

Let’s face it: POPULIST messages are often POPULAR. Most people are going to get something they want 7/N

Populists have a typical playbook. Deliver some quick wins for the people and stoke the economy. Attack your enemies: harass them legally, expropriate or buy out or co-opt them. Prize loyalty above all else. Institutions can’t be trusted and personalism rules the day. 8/N

Fear, risk aversion, and picking and choosing winners and losers all help to cultivate loyalty. Telegraph your messianic message everywhere. It’s one of several well-trodden paths that authoritarians take

9/Ntheguardian.com/us-news/articl…

But there’s a hitch, of course. Populists discount the future. They sell the future down the river to stay in power today. Who’s going to pay for all this stuff? Worry about that later. What if the climate is wrecked? We’re talking about jobs and housing and dignity today 10/N

Short-term thinking causes economic and political distortions. Eventually the bills pile up. But populists can’t accept it. They deepen the distortions and manipulate the rules of the game to stay in power and keep on chugging. Think Erdogan in Turkey or Chávez in Venezuela 11/N

Eventually things unravel. Populist after populist has gone down when the tide of mismanagement piles up and becomes impossible to ignore 12/N

The US isn’t a dictatorship. And the path to centralizing power isn’t easy. Opposition and checks will come from many quarters. But all of Trump's rhetoric and early moves indicate he will give it a good try 13/N

The outcome isn’t going to be some sort of fascist Germany or Italy, as some democrats are fearing. It’s far more likely to be like Orban’s Hungary or Poland under the Peace and Justice Party if everything goes Trump’s way

14/Necfr.eu/publication/th…

But even that is going to be a far cry from the America of recent decades. And it is going to take a lot of cleanup once Trump leaves the stage. Once democracy is damaged, it becomes harder to reconstruct it. 15/15