🧵Here's a special Black Friday FATF Thread to complement @pmarca 's explainer on the Joe Rogan show about how the USG's "control mechanism" was applied to Big Tech by emulating the way it already controlled the banking system.
2/ FATF stands for the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). It originated in 1989 as a one-year fact-finding mission, championed by the United States during the “war on drugs,” but has since evolved into one of the most influential, yet opaque, financial regulators in the world.
3/ Its power stems not from formal authority but from the coercive force of economic exclusion. Nations that ignore its mandates risk blacklisting that shuts them out of global markets.
4/ Yet the FATF’s origins and methods reveal a troubling inversion of legal norms, where financial institutions have arguably supplanted judicial processes and presumed guilt has become the default. So how did all this start?
5/ The FATF’s roots lie in the 1980s, a period when the United States began treating financial flows as tools of law enforcement. In 1986, the US passed the Money Laundering Control Act, the first law to formally criminalize money laundering.
6/ This domestic initiative soon spilled into international forums, with the Basel Committee issuing statements in 1988 and the UN defining money laundering that same year. Despite these efforts, global coordination faltered.
7/ To address this, the US proposed the Financial Action Task Force as a temporary intiative under the auspices of the G7. Its initial mission was modest: cataloging the state of anti-money laundering (AML) laws worldwide.
8/ But the FATF’s role soon expanded dramatically. In the 1990s, its mandate grew to encompass broad AML objectives. By 2001, the “war on terror” provided a new pretext for intervention, transforming the FATF into a counter-terrorism financing (CFT) body.
9/ This shift was no coincidence. Around the same time, the US was losing the so-called “crypto wars” — a battle over the control of encryption tech. American attempts to mandate backdoors in encryption software had largely failed, weakening its capacity to surveil digital chat.
10/ The FATF’s expanded focus on financial flows filled this gap, providing a new channel for economic data collection on a global scale.
11/ The FATF’s power is subtle but immense. It operates not as a formal institution, but as a project hosted by the OECD in Paris, staffed by a few dozen officials. Critics say the lack of a formal structure is deliberate, shielding it from accountability mechanisms.
12/ Its influence flows from a deceptively simple mechanism: the creation of black and grey lists. Countries that fail to meet FATF standards are effectively ostracized from the global financial system.
13/ Compliance, therefore, is non-negotiable, even when FATF standards conflict with national legal norms or civil liberties.
14/ Critics say at the heart of the FATF regime is a profound usurpation of judicial authority. This is because the task force’s AML and CFT frameworks rely on financial institutions, rather than courts, to enforce compliance.
15/ Banks are required to assess the risk profiles of their clients and report “suspicious” activity. But these determinations are often subjective, informed by opaque algorithms and vague guidelines.
16/ The result is a system where accounts can be frozen, assets seized, or services denied without due process. Innocent until proven guilty — a cornerstone of the judicial system — is often replaced by its inverse.
17/ 👉This shift has redefined banking. Historically, financial firms served as neutral intermediaries, providing credit & processing transactions without moral or political judgment. Under FATF, banks have become enforcement agents of the state, tasked with policing customers.
18/ Compliance costs have ballooned, with billions spent annually on AML measures that often fail to achieve their stated aims. Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs), for instance, are generated in vast quantities but largely ignored by underfunded law enforcement agencies.
19/ Meanwhile, the regime’s success at curbing actual crime — whether drug trafficking, terrorism, or fraud — remains dubious. There has been no notable suppression of criminal activity or sanctions abuse because of FATF.
20/ The costs, however, extend far beyond inefficiency. The FATF framework has politicized finance, undermining the principle of monetary neutrality. What qualifies as “terrorism” or “money laundering” often depends on geopolitical interests.
21/ Movements supported by NATO allies may escape scrutiny, while others face debanking and exclusion. This discretionary power has been wielded against figures as varied as crypto merchants and politicians like Nigel Farage, chilling dissent and innovation.
22/ Perhaps the most alarming aspect of the FATF’s evolution is its erosion of transparency and accountability. Banks are often forbidden from informing clients that they have been flagged as risks or Politically Exposed Persons (PEPs).
23/ This secrecy compounds the sense of arbitrariness, transforming financial institutions into covert surveillance arms. For individuals, the implications are stark: loss of access to financial services, reputational damage, and no clear recourse.
24/ Yet the FATF marches on. Its latest incarnation sees the EU establishing a centralized anti-money laundering authority in Frankfurt.
25/ FATF’s trajectory is a cautionary tale. What began as a tool for financial integrity has morphed into unchecked economic control, undermining civil liberties and the principle of monetary neutrality. All without meaningfully reducing any of the criminal activity it was tasked to reduce.
26/ The other perverse consequence is that the de-facto outsourcing of policing to banking staff, has left the actual law enforcement agencies underskilled, complacent and under-resourced to fight real crime.
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Reading Alexei Yurchak's "Everything was forever, until it was no more" and have just realised that viral memes — or what they called anekdoty — were a critical feature of late-stage socialism, and arguably a key dissent mechanism.
Anekdoty were basically the oral equivalent of today's digital meme. Among the structural similarilties is that they always centered on one prevailing scenario. In Poland 'Idzie Baba do lekarza" etc. — which was then adapted accordingly to depict current news events/developments.
This manifested in reams of Stalin and Brzehnev jokes which were enthusiastically adapted for current cultural or political context. It was, indeed, an art form. And I myself remember the enthusiasm and joy with which such yarns were retold and shared by everyone.
The Blind Spot returns from summer holidays with a deep dive into the two-sided markets that have infiltrated the value system and how they are now systemically repressing productivity.
Why is it that we still can’t spot them despite all our regulatory efforts?
- We start with how such models applied to Autonomy’s business; who they really benefited and why they encouraged so much aggressive accounting.
- We then consider how they apply to more traditional business models like hospitality, and why the years of turning a blind eye to the questionable nature of such incomes might be drawing to an end - especially if recent litigation facing the Marriott group in Poland is anything to go by.
The latter is particularly pertinent in light of the crackdown on Telegram’s Pavel Durov and digital social media spaces more widely.
If these virtual spaces can no longer assume immunity for the potentially illicit content created on their systems by third-party users, why should the same not apply to the world of bricks and mortar agents such as well respected hospitality franchises? For now, they’ve mostly been immune.
And finally, we consider the implications for global growth if the economics of many well established businesses just don’t work without extensive use of “corporate beard” accounting.
Bottom line: honest actors have no chance in an economy where loss-leading strategies dominate cashflows (unless they too get a lift of their own from becoming informants to the state).
Either way, it’s not just a market for lemons problem. It may be a systemic Spencian crisis.
Separately, as the global grift becomes obvious to the average normie it will become ever harder to differentiate the “bad guys” from the “good guys” by actions alone. That’s because once trust is vanquished everyone thinks they have a moral justification as to why the law applies to everyone else but not to them.
It’s a big problem for our society because it creates a system where those charged with protecting us from lawbreakers and the tyranny of evil men, risk becoming indistinguishable from those they are protecting us from.
🧵Aside from the headline news, today’s Russian prisoner swap seems to me to include a potentially involuntary limited hangout by the US. It pertains to the release of Vladislav Klyushin and what that suggests about how spies and spy agencies really fund themselves.
The official line is that Klyushin was involved in “hack-to-trade” insider schemes. But why would that be of interest to the Kremlin?
To understand, first watch this suspiciously well produced (given the turnaround time) CNBC mini doc about “Putin’s trader.”
Not only is the doc extremely well produced for something that in theory only became public knowledge today - hinting of tactical embargo terms or pre-positioning of information by the Feds themselves - the access they were given to prosecutors suggests it serves a broader agenda.
There are other tactical if you know you know leaks throughout. For example, the last minute tip off from an anonymous source linking the reporter to a former Russian spy living under an assumed identity after defecting from Russia with US help. That isn’t the sort of source that you just uncover via investigative work.
These diagrams from “How they make money” are absolutely brilliant at pointing out the zero sum nature of some of the world’s most disruptive companies. (And by disruptive I mean unsustainable - just try getting a cab in central London these days? ) As costs bite and investors start to demand some sort of return beyond mere zero sum growth, these things will topple, because they just burn cash.
The absolute opposite of this is Nvidia:
Except you have to consider how much of Nvidia is exposed to the former toppling over?
Yes, I'm overjoyed it's going viral because it means the message is resonating.
No, I don't think I've ever been forwarded or advised to read a single piece as many times as this one.
Yes, it echoes what I've been saying for a long time.
No, I'm not bitter he's getting recognition. I'm a huge fan of his writing and obviously don't even come close in terms of historical expertise. Also, as all traders know ... being too early on something is just as bad as not getting it right. And what matters is that it's belatedly being picked up.
But if you're interested in the expanded Kaminska on the topic dating back over 8 years follow the links I link to this tweet. It's not just a political story. It's an economic story. It's also a story about Gosbanking and digtalisation (and somewhere in there about bitcoin and CBDCs).
And if you want to know my current analysis, sign up to my weekly newsletter at the-blindspot.com
Finally had time to add the links:
The price of unfounded news hints at the true cost of the web
THREAD explaining why seizing Russia's assets is a crossing the Rubicon moment for the West.
1/ Property Rights.
The principle that forfeiture of property before conviction is illegal is one of the longest and most cherished in the Western capitalist tradition. It underpins the basic dimensions of our democratic society. As Wiki notes, the US Constitution's Fifth Amendment guarantees that "no person shall be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law", a phrase that was derived from Magna Carta.
It was instituted in large part to protect citizens from the overreach of the state.
Due process includes the observation of habeas corpus, the idea that everyone is innocent until proven guilty.
2/ State and central bank immunity.
Ah, you may think. These are not the assets of individuals. These are mainly state assets of either the Russian central bank, the Russian Finance ministry or the Russian Sovereign Wealth fund (though, actually, there are also Russian bank assets and individuals in the mix). Seizing their assets is entirely different.
Well no. The principles of sovereign and central bank immunity are, arguably, even more entrenched in the system.
Take as an example the case of the Afghanistan Central Bank (DAB). On February 21, 2023, the United States District Court for the
Southern District of New York held that DAB is a central bank entitled to jurisdictional
immunity under the Foreign Sovereign Immunity Act and that the court is constitutionally constrained from permitting creditors to seize DAB funds.
Why is it such a big deal? Because sovereign continuity is considered fundamental in the rule-based global order, with the only permitted exception for outright confiscation being for sovereigns that are officially at war with each other.
3/ Reputational issues
It's worth noting that while the assets are widely reported to be situated at Euroclear, in reality, this obscures the fact that Euroclear is merely their custodian. The assets are, according to sources familiar with the situation, mostly sovereign bonds that have been pledged as collateral to the Bundesbank. The corresponding euro liquidity remains frozen on account. If that is true, this explains why the ECB is among the staunchest of opponents to the seizing, and why the Germans in particular are so against the move.
The optics of the Bundesbank, of all the central banks in the world, doing the seizing provides Russia with a highly exploitable propaganda narrative. Not just that the West can't be trusted to preserve sovereign immunity and property rights, but that the Germans are up to their old WW2 tricks in terms of unfairly seizing assets.
But more pertinently, the seizing would skewer any hopes the euro has of surpassing the dollar as the world's top international reserve currency.
On the flipside, defying US/UK pressure to seize the assets could be the making of the euro.