Thread by @FADELABDULGHANY

Deterrence of Aggression

The recent "Deterrence of Aggression" operation has highlighted both the military effectiveness and the political complexities of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allied factions. Their success in reclaiming significant territories demonstrates unprecedented military organization, strategic planning, and operational discipline. However, this achievement is not without complications, both on the ground and in the broader political and international context.

Key Complications and Strategic Concerns
1. Territorial Retention and Humanitarian Challenges: Reclaiming large swathes of territory creates immediate governance and humanitarian responsibilities. Areas liberated from the regime often lack basic services, infrastructure, and stability, leaving the opposition vulnerable to backlash from local populations if these gaps are not addressed swiftly.
The potential for refugee returns to these areas could strain limited resources, exacerbating existing crises in regions like Idlib, where overcrowding and insufficient international aid are already critical issues.

2. Risk of Retaliation and Escalation:
The current collapse of regime forces could provoke disproportionate retaliation from Moscow, Tehran, and allied militias. Russian airstrikes, in particular, could intensify if Moscow decides to reassert its dominance, especially given its strategic interests in maintaining influence in Syria.
Iranian-backed forces may escalate sectarian and regional tensions.

3. Turkey's Calculated Position:
Ankara's nuanced approach to the operation reflects its balancing act between supporting opposition factions and avoiding confrontation with Russia. Turkey's strategic priorities include stabilizing northern Syria to manage refugee flows and maintaining its leverage in ongoing negotiations with Russia and other stakeholders.

4. HTS's Transformation and International Perceptions

While HTS's political rhetoric and organizational changes aim to present it as a legitimate actor within Syria, its classification as a terrorist organization by the U.N. and many states remains a significant barrier to its international recognition.

5. The Role of External Actors and the 2020 Moscow Agreement:
The recent operation represents the first major challenge to the territorial and political arrangements established by the 2020 Moscow Agreement. This could disrupt the fragile balance among local, regional, and international actors, particularly if the opposition continues to advance in strategically significant areas.

The reaction of other powers, including the United States and European nations, will be critical. While they may welcome any weakening of the Assad regime and its backers, they are unlikely to support HTS-led operations explicitly, given its history and classification.

Finally, The #Deterrence_of_aggression operation marks a significant moment in the Syrian conflict, potentially reshaping military and political dynamics in northern Syria. However, it also underscores the conflict's enduring complexities, including the interplay of local actors, regional powers, and international stakeholders.

For sustainable progress, opposition factions must consolidate their gains through effective governance, minimize civilian harm, and present a unified front that balances military achievements with political and humanitarian priorities.
#Aleppo