Thread by @karimfranceschi

🧵 Clearing the Confusion: HTS, Turkish Proxies, and the Threat to Rojava (AANES)

1/ A lot of confused "experts": What are the goals of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed SNA? How do their actions threaten Rojava (AANES)? Let’s clarify.

2/ At the heart of this chaos are two key operation rooms, Al-Fath al-Mubin (الفَتح المُبين) and Fajr al-Hurriya (فجر الحرية). While both are rebel coalitions, their objectives and loyalties couldn’t be more different.

3/
- Al-Fath al-Mubin, led by HTS, is a jihadist coalition enforcing strict sharia law, focused on fighting Assad’s regime.

- Fajr al-Hurriya, however, is a Turkish-backed Islamist mercenaries, created to dismantle Kurdish autonomy and serve Ankara’s interests.

4/
The HTS led coalition has, since the fall of Aleppo, focused on holding Idlib.

But their forces are now sweeping through northern Syria, capturing in a few days more territory than they held in 2014. HTS isn’t just holding ground anymore—it’s reshaping the map of Syria.

5/ Despite its rapid advances, HTS operates—within certain parameters—independently of Turkey. During the 2018 Afrin offensive, HTS did not participate, as it was busy attacking rival factions, a move that angered Ankara.

HTS's goals do not always align with Turkey’s.

6/ In contrast, the Fajr al-Hurriya operation room is a rebranding of Turkish-backed militias, notorious for recycling ISIS veterans as with Ahrar al-Sharqiyah.

Their raison d’être? The destruction of the AANES, and the erasure of Kurdish identity from Turkey's border.

7/
Fajr al-Hurriya moved from al Bab, captured Taduf and Aran, cutting critical Kurdish supply lines.
Occupied Halap ar-Raqqah road and parts of the M4, to isolate the Kurdish Aleppo pocket and Tel Rifaat from the rest of Rojava to choke Kurds and prepare to siege them.

8/
These actions align with Turkey’s long-term goals:
Dismantling the AANES—a model of democracy, gender equality, and ecological justice—and ethnically cleansing the Kurdish population to resettle pro-Islamist Arab factions and their families.

9/
HTS opposes the AANES secularism, but under Jolani, it’s trying to rebrand as moderate and gain international legitimacy. A former ISIS commander besieging Sheikh Maqsoud—the same Kurds that defended Kobane? But this could change with shift in political dynamics / pressures.

10/
The stakes are high for Rojava. The Kurdish Aleppo pocket, including Tel Rifaat, is crucial. If Fajr al-Hurriya cuts supply routes, it could trigger a humanitarian disaster for 300k IDPs displaced by Turkey's Afrin invasion, now living in Shahba camp.

11/ Let’s not forget the war crimes by Fajr al-Hurriya’s militias. Ahrar al-Sharqiyah, a key group, brutally assassinated Kurdish politician Hevrin Khalaf in 2019. Linked to ethnic cleansing, and extrajudicial killings. Despite sanctions, Turkey still uses them as proxies.

12/
In 2014, Turkey’s MİT was caught smuggling weapons to jihadists in Syria, ISIS too, under the guise of 'humanitarian aid.' Journalist Can Dündar revealed the truth and was imprisoned for 'violating state secrets.' Now, they don’t even bother to hide it. But, they take part.

13/
With billions from Qatar, the best picks from Turkey’s arsenal, and years to select and train recruits from 2 million IDPs in Idlib, HTS’s overwhelming force suddenly feels less like a mystery and more like the product of cold, calculated backing.

14/
The two operation rooms—HTS’s Al-Fath al-Mubin and Turkey’s Fajr al-Hurriya—represent an existential threat to Rojava:

One looming, the other imminent. Both are wielded by the Turkish state.

But the fight for Rojava is far from over.

(End of Thread)