Jenan Moussa Profile picture
Dec 1, 2024 23 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/ Developments in Syria going so fast that reports become obsolete moments later.

I've reported from inside Syria since 2011 and I live in the MidEast. So, let me explain in this thread what the implications could be for Syria and wider region in case the Syrian regime falls:
2/ First, let me explain which units are participating in this offensive on the side of anti-Assad forces. Most belong to HTS. which split from Al-Qaeda in 2016. However, since 2018 HTS is designated a foreign terrorist group by the US State Department.
3/ HTS is active around Aleppo and Hama. The commander of HTS is Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. Earlier he headed Nusra Front (Al Qaeda in Syria). After HTS split from AlQaeda, he claims to have distanced himself from AQ. There is still a $10 million bounty on his head by the U.S.
4/ In addition to the HTS operation, there is another offensive going on simultaneously. This second battle is by the SNA (Syrian National Army - a Turkey funded Syrian rebel umbrella organization). The SNA operation is mainly targeting Kurdish forces north of Aleppo.
5/ HTS takes lead, but following brigades also participate in offensive against Assad forces:

-Faylak Al Sham (Sham Corps)
-Jaysh al-Izza (Army of Pride)
-Suqour al-Sham (Sham Falcons)
-Ahrar alSham (Sham Free Men)
-Turkistan Brigade
-Ansar alTawhid (Supporters of Monotheism)
6/ The Turkistan Brigade is interesting. Most of its members are jihadists from a/ Central Asia (Uzbeks, Tadjiks), b/ Chinese Uyghurs or c/ non-Syrian Arab fighters from the Middle East or Europe. Most came already to Syria for jihad in 2012-2015.
7/ Almost all SNA groups are involved in fighting Kurds north of Aleppo. But 3 SNA battalions are part of HTS led offensive against Assad:

-Suleiman Shah Division
-Hamza Division
-AlJabha alShamiya (Levant Front)

There are no foreign fighters in SNA, some are Syrian Turkman.
8/ Impossible to predict if the regime of Syrian president Assad will fall. But if so, these could be the implications for Syria. (Obviously the situation is super fluid. But based on my experience in war-torn Syria, these scenarios seem at this moment most likely):
9/ If HTS and allies take over Syria they will enforce a strict interpretation of Sharia law. Although there are (cultural and historical) differences between HTS and the Taliban in Afghanistan, think of Syria under HTS turning into a "Taliban-light" state.
10/ HTS and its predecessor Jabhat al Nusra have a bad track record when it comes to the treatment of ethnic and religious minorities.
11/ Expect refugees. Syrian Christians, Kurds &other minorities will try to leave, mostly to Lebanon, Europe or US.

Sectarian hatred runs high in Syria. Especially the Alawite & Shia populations might be under risk of serious revenge attacks by HTS and other opposition groups.
12/ Very uncertain what will happen in Latakia and Tartous areas (western coastal region) where most Alawites live. This is also the region where Russia has their important naval facility. Will Russians evacuate? Can Alawites defend this area? Totally unclear at the moment.
13/ Same goes for people linked to Assad institutions- politicians, journalists, soldiers, police, civil servants etc. Many will fear revenge attacks by HTS &allies and will try to escape, either Lebanon or Jordan. Others might stay and hope for the best. Or be forced to repent.
14/ What will happen to the Kurds in Syria is also very unclear at the moment. SDF controlled areas in the northeast, where also American ground troops are present, might be able to survive due to US protection.

But American troops are only present east of the Euphrates River. There are no US troops west of the Euphrates. Therefore places such as Sheikh Maqsoud (Kurdish neighborhood in Aleppo city) and Tal Rifaat and Manbij (north/northeast of Aleppo) might be run over by HTS or SNA. But even Kobani and Raqqa are vulnerable because US ground forces are located at quite a distance.
15/ Possible fall of Syrian gov also has huge implications for eastern Syria where Islamic State still has a large covert present. If Deir Ezzor falls, expect Islamic State to regroup &take over parts of east Syria &desert areas in Homs province. IS and HTS will fight each other.
16/ Obviously, in case the Syrian regime of President Assad collapses, it will have huge repercussions for the wider Middle East. I will explain the impact of this all country by country. Let's start with Turkey:
17/ For Turkey, the possible fall of Assad means the following:

-Via its proxies in Syria (SNA and HTS) Turkey will hugely expand its power and influence in Syria, which was from 1516 until 1918 part of the Ottoman Empire.

-Removal from Syria of Turkey's old rival Russia. Erdogan wins, Putin loses.

-Weakening/finishing off much-hated Kurdish forces in Syria.

-With Syria pacified by HTS and its allies, Turkish president Erdogan can send millions of Syrian refugees from Turkey back to Syria "as the war is over and Assad is gone". AKP will go up in the polls.
18/ For Russia, the possible fall of Assad means the following:

-No more ally in Damascus, end of political influence in Syria.
-Outsmarted by Turkey.
-No more or very limited military presence in Syria. Moscow's Saigon?
- Possible end to super important Tartus Naval base, established back in 1971 during the times of the Soviet Union.
19/ For Israel, the possible fall of Assad means the following:

-With Syria in the hands of jihadists, it will be impossible for Iran to keep transporting weapons over land from Iran, via Iraq and Syria to its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. With Beirut airport and Lebanese ports de facto controlled by Israeli naval and air forces, Hezbollah can't rearm. A major win for Israel.

-Just as Iranian weapons can't reach Hezbollah anymore, the Iranian military loses access to Lebanon and Syria.

- In the short term: HTS ruled Syria will keep Syria unstable and weak due to endless internal military and religious conflicts. Hardly a threat to Israel.

- But in the long term: As jihadi groups traditionally get out of control; Israel will expect Western ally Turkey to reign in HTS on time.
20/ For Iran, the possible fall of Assad means the following:

-Iran loses a major ally in the region. Total disaster for Tehran.

- Iran can't any longer rearm proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon as the route from Iran to Lebanon is closed.

-Regional rival Turkey expands its power while Iran experiences an embarrassing end to their political and military presence in Syria and Lebanon resulting in a weakening of Shiite interests in Syria, Lebanon and even Iraq.
21/ For the U.S. the possible fall of Assad means the following:

-Russians out of Syria.
-Hated Iran ally Assad after a marathon struggle finally gone.
-Isolating Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In other words: All smiles. (Until of course the day comes when HTS gets out of control and/or IS regroups)
22/ For Lebanon the possible fall of Assad means the following:

-Little Lebanon might get sandwiched between its only two neighbours Israel and a jihadi run Syria.

-As Hezbollah can't rearm, will other religious groups inside Lebanon try to (forcefully?) fill the vacuum after the weakening of Hezbollah? Possibly leading to religious tension and civil strife.

-Possible reactivation of jihadi groups and terrorism inside Lebanon with support from HTS in Syria.
23/ For Iraq, the possible fall of Assad means the following:

-HTS victory in Syria might inspire similar groups in neighboring Iraq, especially in Sunni areas.

-Resurrection of Islamic State in Eastern Syria can easily spill over across the border to (western) Iraq. Such a return of Islamic State to Iraq will be accompanied by terrorism and possible civil war.

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More from @jenanmoussa

Mar 12
1/ Some tried to dismiss the photo on the left as “fake”. I wish it was. But unfortunately, it isn’t. I can now confirm that gunmen indeed have executed three-year-old Alawite girl Manissa in Syria. She was shot together with her parents & grandmom. This is their tragic story. Image
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2/ To confirm the story of the execution of three-year-old Manissa, I reached out to various sources inside Syria. Most of these sources are still in danger, so although I know their identities, I can't mention their names here. I am sure you understand.
3/ Three-year-old Manissa and her parents and grandmother were executed last Friday (March 7 2025) inside their first-floor apartment in the mainly Alawite neighborhood of Qusoor in Baniyas, Syria.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 10
1/ In the small Alawite village of al-Mukhtariyah alone, 147 males were executed by armed men.

Ever since I saw the video of the men forced to crawl and bark by gunmen in Syria, I couldnt get it out of my mind. It was so disturbing. It haunted me. And that is why I was determined to know the story behind it. This is what I found out about the massacre in the village of Mukhtariyah, near Latakia.

Here the main takeaways:

- 147 males and one woman executed in this village in cold blood on Friday, buried yesterday (Sunday).
- Almost all bodies show a bullet to the head.
- Males as young as 16 were excecuted.
- Also, elderly males targeted. Eldest victim in his 80s.
- Some Alawite males survived because they managed to escape and are still hiding in nearby fields.
- According to locals, "around 70% of male population of village was killed."
- I can confirm that the shocking video which went viral last Friday showing males forced by armed men to crawl and bark, was filmed in al-Mukhtariyah.

Below my detailed interview with a person from al-Mukhtariyah who wasn't in the village the day of the massacre. He now tries to collect the names of all the victims and figure out who was killed and who is still alive. Long story but with chilling and important details.

“When I knew that something bad happened, I tried to contact relatives and friends in my village Al Mukhtariyah. You have to know, Al Mukhtariyah and Al Khraybeh are officially two villages, but they are so near to each other, we consider it as one village. Although there are no official figures, in total around a 1000 people live there.

So I first contacted my cousin. He didn’t answer. I called other relatives, they did not answer. At one point, the son of the second relative that I called answered the phone. He told me: “My father and your cousin are dead. Armed men killed them.”

“The first people who died were in the house of my cousin because he is living at the house of his father-in-law. This is at the entrance of the village. In that house they killed my cousin, two brothers of his wife and the son of one of her brothers. They were killed in front of a little shop. The bodies were still laying there until Sunday morning.

Based on what I was told by numerous survivors, let me tell you what happened: First, on Friday morning two cars with armed men arrived in the village. They drove through it. Villagers saw them. The armed men didn’t say or do anything and the villagers in the village didn’t communicate with them.

Later that day, again two cars with armed men drove into the village. This time, the armed men stopped. They got out and immediately started the killings.

They killed all the males that they saw in the village. Any man that they saw, they killed. They didn’t ask questions. They didn’t have lists, they didn’t ask for wanted people, they didn’t interrogate. They just killed all the males.

In one house, they killed a 16 year old boy. In another house, the father and his four sons were executed. The father is around 80 years old. It didn’t matter that he was old, he was a male.

They prevented the women from picking up the bodies. Women were crying for their sons and husbands. They weren’t allowed to take the bodies. Militants warned them: “If you touch the bodies or burry them, you will pay the price.”

“You ask me about who the armed group who entered the village. Honestly, nobody knows who they were. Nobody in the village has mingled with these people before, nobody had ever seen them before. Obviously, they didn’t introduce themselves.”

(Story continues in next tweet)
2/ “After they killed who they killed in the homes and the shops, they gathered a group of men who were still alive. They forced this group of men to crawl. The armed men then started to film them, because we saw these videos later online. They ordered the group of men to bark like dogs. Then, off camera, they killed them. I can confirm to you that this video was filmed by the gunmen in our village. After they filmed the group of men, they killed all of them. Also, there is another horrible video showing the aftermath of the execution by gunmen. So many bodies, next to one another, and you can hear the voice of the women wailing.

I am in touch now with my neighbours. They escaped to the fields. What happened is that some people who live further inside the village heard shooting. Some of them immediately escaped to the fields after they heard the shooting and the screaming. They are still hiding in the fields. Until Sunday they could not go back to the village.

The names that I was able to collect is based on my phone calls with various females and males who survived and are eyewitnesses. I am always updating the names based on the information I get.

I just received a phone call from people who are hiding in the fields. They ask me: Can we go back home or not? What is the situation?

Now more than three days have passed. There is no electricity there. Cell phones are out of battery, it is very difficult to get information.

Yesterday, I was collecting the names of the victims. I spoke to the daughter of our neighbour. She was trying to talk for three times. But she could not, she is very traumatized, she was so much crying. I said to her: “Stop, you are too traumatized. You don’t need to talk now”. But she insisted. She said: “I need to talk, I need to tell you the names of the people they killed.” Eventually she managed to give me the names of people she knew that were killed. She told me that also her father-in-law was killed – he was seventy years old. They killed him inside the house and they told the wife: ‘Don’t you move and don’t move him, otherwise bad things will happen to you.’ So, she sat for hours next to her dead husband in the same room.

The armed group that came to our village, they did no searches, asked no questions. Immediately they began killing. No words, nothing. My cousin is the only male child. That automatically means that you are not even allowed to go into the army (of Assad). And he got recently married and his wife is pregnant. Nevertheless they killed him. They never asked any questions. They just killed him. Every male they saw, they killed.

Later on Friday, armed groups kept roaming around the village. If villagers would return from the fields to check if it was safe again, the armed men would pick them up and kill them if they saw them. The men who escaped the first round of death, they unfortunately were killed in the second round. Because the militants came back and caught many men who returned to their houses to check the initial carnage.

“There was a (HTS)general security checkpoint close to the village, on the bridge over the M4 highway, which passes near the village. We had no problems with the men at the checkpoint, there was no tension. On Thursday evening that checkpoint was attacked. Somebody fired at them. We have no clue of course who fired. But the armed men who attacked our village were not the same guys who were on the checkpoint. It seems that somebody fired at the checkpoint. But what do we have to do with it. There is so much traffic near the highway, what do we have to do with it.”

“My own estimation is that 70 percent of the male population are dead. Some families lost 100 percent of all the male members.”

(Story continues below)
3/ The dead bodies were eventually brought by gunmen to the village school and a warehouse. Villagers were worried that the militants would take the bodies, or maybe burn the bodies to get rid of the evidence.

On Sunday, the general security came to the village. They said: we have set up the checkpoint up again on the bridge. General security advised the people who are in the fields: “Don’t come back yet to your houses, we don’t have the situation under control.”

Sunday afternoon I received another message from him: “We are going to bury the people today. The families who were hiding, came out with the sheikh. HTS was again in the village. HTS said: “We are not going to hurt you.” But HTS advised the surviving males of the village to return to the fields because “not everything is yet under control” and “we don’t control yet the group that was here.”

HTS then said to the surviving villagers: ‘You can bury the dead but don’t film anything. If somebody films, more bad things will happen to you’. So, nobody is allowed to film the burial.”

“Eventually 148 bodies were buried in a mass grave in the graveyard of the village. They weren't given a proper Islamic burial as is customary. There was no time, no water to wash them and no shrouds to wrap them. They were just put in the ground wearing the same clothes they were killed in."

List of the victims who were buried:Image
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Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
1/ So far 717 Alawite civilians confirmed dead in western Syria. Here are their names: Image
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Read 5 tweets
Mar 7
1/ After yesterday's deadly ambush of HTS by ex-regime remnants, today HTS/new Syria gov takes revenge.

Major human rights violations. Many massacres reported of mainly Alawite men.

Thread:

This Al-Mukhtariyah, Latakia prov. I count at least 29 men executed. I blurred video.
2/ This reportedly in Al Haffa, Latakia prov. 1st clip I count 8 executed men, 2nd clip 3 killed men.

Pro HTS cameraman says in 1st clip: "Al Haffa, Allahu akbar, dead animals".

2nd clip might also be Al Haffa. Cameraman says: "Wow, great (these dead bodies)."

I blurred vid:
3/ Man in civilian clothes and wearing slippers is executed point blank by a gunman. Location unknown.

Gunman: Run inside!
Man: Yes, yes.
Gunman: Come back!
Man screams.
Gunman: Fall on the floor!
Gunman executes man.
I blurred video.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 2
1/ Clashes between Druze & HTS in Damascus. Druze refusing to hand over their areas to HTS. And HTS reluctant to give in to Druze, fearing other minorities might follow. And Israel now threatening to invade and "help" the Druze. Here a thread on chaos in Syria's south:
2/ The situation in Syria's south is complicated. So, let's start with the most recent developments: The fighting in Damascus suburb Jaramana between armed Druze groups and HTS. Jaramana is here on the map: Image
3/ Couple of days ago, an armed member of the new Syrian security forces was killed in Jaramana. Not exactly clear what happened. But the story goes that after he shot in the air, Druze gunmen in Jaramana responded to this. A fire fight erupted & the Syrian fighter was killed.
Read 22 tweets
Feb 23
1/ Another US drone strike in Syria killed today a member of Al Qaeda's affiliate Hurras al Din. This time Turkish national Muhammed Yusuf Ziya TALAY (aka Jafar al Turki). During the last 9 days, 3 US strikes in Idlib have killed 2 Libyans, 2 Syrians and 1 Turk. What’s going on? Image
2/ Turkish national Muhammed Yusuf Ziya TALAY was already listed as a counter sanctioned entity by the Turkish Ministry of Interior. According to information from that list, Talay was suspected of being a member of Al Qaeda. He was born in Ankara in 1986. Image
3/ Talay was killed in Idlib province in NW Syria, on the main road between the towns of Killi and Kaftin. Geolocator @ChrisOsieck already found the exact spot where the US drones strike took place:
Read 7 tweets

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