Thread by @karimfranceschi

I’ve fought in #Syria for half a decade—as an SDF soldier. In that time, I studied war, drew battle plans, and learned to know my enemy. When HTS seized their first village, I saw what few others could. Take a peek at what’s coming next—a 🧵

1/
Assad’s forces are done. Homs is indefensible—his best troops were in Hama, and when the time came for close quarters urban combat, they folded. SAA must retreat now, taking forces and materiel to the Nusayriyah Mountains to their last defensible line.

2/ If they don’t move soon, they risk losing both troops and resources they can’t afford to replace. Tartus is non-negotiable for the regime—it’s home to Russia’s naval base, the only reason Assad is still in power.

3/ This is a chess game now, but Assad’s pieces are being swept off the board faster than he can move them. SAA need to set up fortifications stretching from: Krak des Chevaliers, To the M4 highway heading to Latakia. They must deny access to the coastline at all costs.

4/ A loss of Tartus doesn’t just jeopardize Assad—it threatens Russia’s entire Mediterranean foothold. That base is key to resupplying the remnants of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). Lose it, and it’s game over.

5/ As Clausewitz said, "War is merely the continuation of politics by other means." Jolani has flipped this—using politics to prepare for war. Years of diplomacy with historical enemies have paid off. In northern Hama, HTS secured peaceful takeovers and defections.

6/ But the most outstanding part is Jolani's "too good to be true" proposal for a decentralized Syria ruled by councils that recognize Syria’s ethnic, religious, and sectarian diversity—essentially what AANES proposed from day one, only to be rejected by Assad at every turn.

7/ Turkey is furious at Jolani’s decentralization rhetoric. By Erdogan’s decree, all HTS assets in Turkey have been frozen, sending a clear signal. For Ankara, HTS’s overtures threaten its main goal: destroying the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria.

8/ Erdogan's fury ties back to the 2016 invasion: Operation Euphrates Shield meant to block Afrin from uniting with Manbij and the rest of Rojava. For Ankara, ISIS wasn’t the problem; but the solution to the Kurdish question—but Kobane stood, and pushed back, and AANES was born.

9/ Turkey’s occupation of northern Syria has one goal: dismantling AANES at all costs. HTS’s push for decentralization revives the vision Turkey invaded to destroy, putting Ankara and Jolani on a direct collision course.

10/ Ankara has one last card to play: The SNA Mercs فجر الحرية: Turkey’s proxies currently ethnically cleansing Kurds in Shehba (around Tal Rifaat), forcing mass displacements to AANES areas, and committing war crimes—lootings, kidnappings, killings, wherever they go.

11/These SNA proxies include groups like Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki and Ahrar al-Sharqiya, central players in Turkey’s invasions of Afrin (2018) and Serekaniye (2019). Rebranded under the SNA to evade accountability, their war crimes—documented and often self-published.