Thread by @karimfranceschi

The authoritarian regime in Damascus is no more.
13 years, 8 months, and 23 days after the “Day of Rage,” and while the final bullet of the Syria's Civil War has yet to be shot, a Caliph crowned himself in Sham—a : 🧵

1/ "Horror is the removal of masks."
The fall of Assad’s regime is a moment of euphoria. The streets erupt in celebration. Prisons swing open, unearthing the true depth of the regime's depravity and brutal cruelty. Every hour, new stories of horror surface. Like this one:

2/ Michel Kilo once recounted a story of a woman giving birth in Assad’s dungeons—a tale once dismissed as fiction. Today, it’s no longer “just a story.” Over 70 children, raised in regime prisons, have been found. Just like the one in the picture.

3/ That baby, born in a dungeon, grew up in that dungeon. For 3 years, he knew nothing but concrete, cold, and fear. But this week, that child stepped into the light for the first time in his life. Not because of the UN, not because of diplomacy, not because of "justice."

4/ It happened because one man made it happen. Abu Mohammad Jolani. And he did it with an army. His army. No protests. No UN decrees. Just war. A war led from the heart of Al-Fath al-Mubin (الفَتح المُبين) operation room.

5/ There’s a scene in Game of Thrones that comes to mind. Jon Snow, a bastard, is crowned King in the North—not for his birthright, but because he avenged the Red Wedding. Jolani has done the same for Syria. For many Syrians, he has avenged 50 years of Ba'athist oppression.

6/ As the dominoes fall in Syria and various actors scramble to grab what they can, they are merely reacting to the calculated moves of one faction: Jolani's HTS. For they have not only seized land — they have seized the state's institutions.

7/ Before entering Damascus, Jolani ordered his militias NOT to touch the Ba'athist institutions left behind as the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) retreated. No looting. No torching. No "purges." Instead, their goal was to occupy them intact. But why?

8/ HTS had been engaged in secret talks with Syria’s Prime Minister for days. When the SAA retreated, it wasn’t a collapse — it was a handover. HTS militants escorted Assad’s Prime Minister as he delivered the government’s authority directly to Jolani in the military operations room.

9/ What is HTS building? Not the “local councils” Jolani promised, nor “decentralization.” Those were lies. If HTS sought local autonomy, they’d dismantle Ba’athist institutions—not inherit them. Jolani isn’t tearing down Syria’s state—he’s becoming it.

10/ There's a precedent. ISIS did the same. People forget: ISIS wasn’t just jihadists and foreign fighters. It was built by Saddam’s ex-Ba’athist generals, spies, and intelligence chiefs—they repurposed Iraq’s bureaucracy for ISIS’s “state. Jolani is now doing the same in Syria.

11/ Jolani’s message to Syria's elite is clear: he’s not here to upset the established order. That’s why Ba'ath officials aren’t being cast into the sea. In his meeting with Syria’s Prime Minister, he made it plain—his men will take charge, but they’ll need "guidance".

12/ Jolani’s transition is methodical: tax offices, ID cards, police, licensing, and courts — seized in silence.

But it’s more than bureaucracy. It’s "The Monopoly of Violence."

HTS isn’t just a faction now. They are the state. Their adversaries? "Enemies of the state."

13/ Syria hasn’t been "just Syria" for a long time. Jolani knows this. To solidify his rule, he must sell the "New Syria" to the global powers waging World War III by proxy — the U.S., Russia, Israel, and Turkey. His every move is crafted for their eyes.

14/ "Spontaneous pro-rebel protests" are popping up. But leaked reports reveal the truth: They’re HTS-orchestrated. These “protests” show HTS can mobilize mass crowds for “legitimacy,” but when protests hit AANES's Deir Ezzor & Raqqa, Jolani ordered his men to stop. Why?

15/ December 19, 2024—the day the Caesar Act expires. This is crucial. If HTS moves on US-backed AANES, it risks an extension. Jolani is being cautious. He knows if the U.S. extends sanctions, his plan to consolidate Syria’s state is at risk.

16/ While Jolani plays nation-builder in Damascus, war rages on. Turkey's proxy, the SNA, has been attempting to invade AANES's Manbij for the past 3 days with Turkish airstrikes & artillery. In this image, an SNA roadblock near Arima shows fighters visibly wearing ISIS patches.

17/ Erdogan has no patience for "nation-building"—he wants the Kurds gone now. While his SNA proxies—who share more similarities with criminal Cartels than rebels—see seizing new territory as a chance to gain leverage in the New Syria.

18/
With the regime absorbed by HTS, Russia retreating, and the Shia axis shattered, both the SNA and HTS—fully backed by Turkey—can now focus entirely on destroying AANES.
Why?
Because AANES controls most Syria’s oil, wheat, and water—the lifeblood of any new state.

19/
But more than resources, AANES represents something far more dangerous to Jolani, Erdogan, and others in the shadows.
AANES is a grassroots, multicultural democracy, led by a women's revolution. It centers coexistence & diversity—a direct threat to authoritarian rule.

20/
This isn't just about borders.
It’s about bread.
It’s about power.
It’s about survival.
It’s about the soul of Syria.
Jolani, Erdogan, and the hidden powers know this. That's why the war isn't over—it's entering its most brutal chapter yet.

/End Thread

The fall of Damascus is not the end of Syria's story. It’s just the end of a chapter.
Jolani wears the crown, but he is not uncontested.

The last bullet has not been fired.