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NomadBets Profile picture
@NomadBets
Dec 10, 2024 • 11 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
My $ASTS DD summary in Q&A form. Perfect for anyone looking into @AST_SpaceMobile for the first time or to send to someone that hates reading.

Q: Who are the strategic partners of AST? Image
Q: Isn't Starlink doing this already? How will they compete?
Q: Do they have any agreements already? Image
Q: What is the Total-Addressable-Market (TAM)?
Q: Constellations are expensive, how much have they raised?
Q: What does the current cash prospect look like?
Q: What are the revenue prospects?
Image
Q: What will their constellation roll-out look like?
Q: How are the outstanding shares distributed?
Q: Does AST own spectrum?
Q: How many satellites are required for commercial operation?

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More from @NomadBets

NomadBets Profile picture
Feb 16
$ASTS Lot's of discussion about the required amount of satellites recently which came down to "They can't do it with 60" and "Yes they can do it" without neither side able to explain. So I tried to take a stab at it.
The DL;DR in below graph, the explanation in below🧵: Image
Whether they can do it or not, is if AST can deliver the insane FoV of 124° they claim to be able to do. Lots of skepticism among bears about this, but the proof hints they are doing it, at least a large (116°-126°) FoV. The rest is simply just maths, not opinions. Image
45° North is the inclination of which the BB6+ will be launched, planning around 15 planes (orbits) of 15 satellites and one equatorial plane of 18 sats.
45°N covers (orange band below) the EU, most of Japan and 75% of the US. The southern point of Florida is 25°N for reference. Image
Read 7 tweets
NomadBets Profile picture
Apr 25, 2023
One thing to understand is how much of a huge industry disruption this is. I've read&watched many interviews about D2D and the whole sat-industry is pretending @AST_SpaceMobile doesn't exist. I know it wasn't a videocall yet, but I have no doubt we will hear about that soon: 🧵👇
Hughes Network company's COO Paul Gaske said to LightReading about D2D that for them anything more than messaging is more than a decade away.
lightreading.com/satellite/echo…
Something EchoStar's CEO agrees on.
lightreading.com/satellite/vias…
Image
Read 8 tweets
NomadBets Profile picture
Apr 2, 2023
I've finished the AST SpaceMobile Revenue Calculator Model 3000 (V 1.0)
Running the first numbers, it's going to be a rocky run-up till the constellation. But also, this company is going to print so much f-ing money it's ridiculous.
In this thread i'll explain the model.
First, I searched through all available FYQ4/22 reports of the MNOs disclosed by AST and compared the subscribers of each individual country to the ones shown in the investor presentation map👇
After that I pulled the data from each individual country from worldbank.org :
* Total population
* Ages 0-14
* Total mobile subscriptions
* Rural / Urban - ratio
* Internet penetration
* Income category

Additionally I added the most N & S latitude.
Read 10 tweets

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