One important thing to remember as we continue to digest the election results, especially around swings with Hispanics: some of what we saw was due to turnout differentials, not just vote switching. We still don't have vote history for most states, but here is one minor example.
In Delaware, Hispanic voters were 4% of the turnout this year. In 2020, by party registration, the Hispanics who voted were +46.9 Dem, but in 2024 they were +36.7 Dem. The total turnout from Dem Hispanics was roughly equal to 2020, but 35% more GOP Hispanics voted this year. 
Not surprisingly, this surge in GOP Hispanic turnout was most pronounced among younger voters. Under age 30 Hispanics moved by 17 pts to the GOP, while over age 75 moved only 3 pts.
Here's Nebraska CD 2, showing almost identical turnout differentials among Hispanic voters, a net 9pt turnout differential shift towards the GOP relative to 2020.
I'll have more states to share soon. But this is an ongoing pet peeve of mine, when we compare partisanship of demographic groups across two elections, and then act like the differential was driven entirely by persuasion, as if the exact same people voted each year.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
