C🅰️tSE Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024 22 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Let us look at the SDA opportunity.

What does $ASTS have that SDA might seek?

How does that fit with PWSA architecture and timelines.

Any hints there is a fit or work in progress between the two space architectures?

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AST was selected to be part of HALO pool. From this pool they can be awarded contract for 2 space vehicles.

This is when AST themselves became a prime DoD partner.

In parallell we know that another AST partner which also has a prime contract staus with the DoD are testing OISL Image
That other partner is Fairwinds.

They integrate as part of SBIR OSIL direct to Phase 2 a Skyloom OISL on a ASTS Flat Sat Simulator, with a 12-mo demonstration integrating the OISL onto the Sat and test events to verify interoperability between ASTS payload and an SDA OISL.

3/n
It’s easy to see how these two contracts are consecutive steps towards the same end goal.

Fairwinds ”effort will produce a study on how to integrate an SDA OISL onto a commercial LEO satellite and test data that verifies the interoperability between the two architectures.”

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And the HALO contract sets the stage for the next step, which is Space Vehicles launched under T2 DES a demonstrator tier of the PWSA to find new tech for the Tranche 3 layers.

5/n
Which, as there evidently are two steps towards a common goal already iniyiayed, brings us to ponder what the third step might be? And what the end goal might be?

This is where this thread shifts from known facts to more of speculation and hints.

T2DES seeks tech for T3

6/n Image
So let us look at T3.

Let’s start with the Legend and try and identify capabilities that an AST BlueBird wpuld have after succesful Skyloom OISL integration

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First IBS-L a broadcast system in UHF.

Let’s flag that as possible because $ASTS BlueWalker 3 is transmitting in DMSP frequencies already another US program. And they’re in the approximate same frequenzy range. So we know AST satellites already have that UHF capability.
8/n
Then I get this from the communications Legend in Tranche 3 transport layer.

Nota Bene Tranche 3 has more layers and a software defined phased array has more use cases than coms.

But let’s stick with coms not to speculate too wildly.

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Let’s now compare and contrast.

T3TL Upsilon is a good match for the known capabilities of an OISL equipped AST satellites.

One thing not full match.. Which is the Ka band fixed satellite service / feeder link

AST has a Q feeder link.

But wait..

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Part of Q band is actually also Ka band.

And 70cm Tendeg steerable feederlink antenna AST is using is capable of both bands.

AST requesting from 37.5 GHz which matches both bands.

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Meanwhile the DoD just initiated opening up their spectrum to co-equal access between the military and commercial companies around this intersection of Ka and Q.

Hat tip @no_privacy Thank You for sharing that proceeding w me.

So in a way the capabilities are a full match.

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40 Upsilon will be ordered.

Not unusual that these are awarded to two different companies, nor that the number is expanded.

But at least a potential for a 20 sat order. At ~20 Mn each that is a ~400 Mn USD order potential.

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Does the SDA want giant phased arrays?

Yes they do.

It is in their roadmap.

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” But.. ASt sats are for 3GPP cellular communications!!”

No, $ASTS FPGA phased arrays are pretty indifferent to coms protocols and it is just the Nokia -terrestrial- AirScale gNodeB that is

Think of satellite as a mirror that can reflect both civilian and DoD waveforms.

15/
$ASTS is building a vertically integrated high throughput production line.

That will have economy of scale that is very attractive to DoD.

There are also _many_ non coms use cases. MPAR, SIGINT, Weather radio occultation, MIMO-SAR,/FF-SAR that speaks to other T3 layers.

16/
Here is when DoD starts shopping for T3 layer.

The two T2 DES satellites will come long before that.
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There are other less known facts like those to be found in MICRONSAT-2 filing.

A one year old still active ITU filing re: SpaceMobile constellation.

It is a filing for a layered architecture. Noteably a 1400 km shell.

SDA operates in this neighbourhood: 700-1200. AST 700-1400. Image
As theodorus tracks the Block1s are spacing out for a DoD non coms use case testing phase. Prior to communications testing.

Take note how these are spaced along track at each 1/4 of a full orbit.
This cat while on rodent control deep in ITU archives stumbled on this part of the MICRONSAT-2 filing a year ago.

It is interesting because it shows AST asking ITU coordination for 20 FPGAs / block1 spaced for the DoD non coms case one year ago.

And 328 block 2 spaced for coms Image
I hoped to show with this thread that two 2017 brain childs of AST SpaceMobile & DARPA Blackjack (later SDA PWSA) might have a higher degree of mutual coordination and planning of contract awards, technology roadmaps etc than what is publicly apparent.

They are a perfect match. Image

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More from @CatSE___ApeX___

Jan 23
In Latin, the concept of drawing an inference from what is not shown or mentioned is most commonly expressed as:

Argumentum ex silentio

$ASTS

🧠🐈‍⬛

1/n Image
When the last BlueBirds deployed there was two patterns.

One was a spike in drag and the level of drag settling on a higher level afterwards.

The other and first sign was a delay of TLE data longer than usual.

In a way the first -inconclusive- sign was the absence of data.
/2
As back then TLEs was delayed more than 2 full days. Which is /was unusual.

/3 Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 8
Deploying a 200 sqm array within two weeks of launch is a high-stakes move. Historically, large structures wait longer for "checkout."

Is the upcoming FM2 launch giving us a faster deployment?

There is now FM1 data.

1/ Image
Here is drag data.

/2 Image
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Here is the relative change of drag (schematically) that you’d expect from detumbling, unfolding and the reorienting back to edge on flight.

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 6
I was asked to comment on Space-x last Ex parte letter that they have filed to the FCC.

So here is the picture:

$ASTS has asked authority to launch full constellation beyond 25 satellites.

Space-x wants to delay and complicate that.

They keep filing all the way to sunshine
1/ Image
It’s extremely uncompetitive behaviour and a bit immoral as what Space-X has begged be implemented onto AST is the same type of regulations they see as an obstacle when applied to themselves.

What they ask that AST shall not be allowed to is what they themselves do.
Golden rule? Image
It’s important to grasp that the next 20 satellites and the Block1s are approved already.

So this pen-fighting is about about satellites to launched beyond Q1 2026.

/3 Image
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Read 20 tweets
Jan 2
_One way to increase Area spectral efficiency is lowering constellation altitude.

That way comes at two costs: The number of 🛰️satellites required on orbit increases and their orbital dwell ⏳time decreases both affecting the replenish rate 🛠️adversely as:

🛠️ = 🛰️/⏳

🧶🐈‍⬛

1/n Image
Let’s do a SpaceMob thing and look at this from first principles.

A satellite has a field of view. FoV.

That Field of View projects a footprint on earth.

The footprint increases with angle of the field of view and increases with altitude.

2/ Image
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Within this field of view the satellite creates beams.

They also have an angle called beamwidth and a footprint called beamcell.

There are many of these beams and beamcells within the satellite footprint.

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Read 31 tweets
Nov 25, 2025
🚨 $ASTS IS INCREASING ITS PATENT MOAT ESP. ON DOW ORBITS 🚨THIS PATENT COVERS THE SIGNAL-PROCESSING METHODS — SELECTION COMBINING, DIVERSITY COMBINING, AND MIMO — THAT ENABLE RELIABLE DIRECT-TO-CELL CONNECTIVITY FROM LEO SATELLITES TO STANDARD HANDSETS.

1/ Image
THE PROBLEM ADDRESSED: END USER DEVICES MAY RECEIVE MULTIPLE SATELLITE SIGNALS (MULTIPLE PATHS, SUB-ARRAYS, OR MULTI-SATELLITE LINKS) WITH DIFFERENT DELAYS, DOPPLER, AND SNRS.

THE PATENT SPECIFIES HOW TO CHOOSE AND COMBINE THESE SIGNALS TO MAXIMIZE LINK RELIABILITY.

2/
SELECTION COMBINING: the system monitors multiple receive branches and selects the best branch using quality metrics (e.g., SNR/BER estimates, channel quality indicators). selection lowers complexity and power for the handset when one branch dominates

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Read 13 tweets
Aug 11, 2025
Quarterly report thread. $ASTS

Excellent initial impression.

August delivery of FM1 !

5 launches before Q1 -26

1.5Bn+ at hand

🧶🐈‍⬛

1/

stocktitan.net/news/ASTS/ast-…
Signed two additional early-stage contracts for the U.S. Government end customer, bringing the total to eight contracts to date with the U.S. Government as an end customer.

This is huge.

The rate at which company adds DoD contracts is staggering. It’s not in analyst models.

2/
Service Rollout: Nationwide intermittent service in the US by end-2025, followed by UK, Japan, and Canada in Q1 2026. Expected revenue: $50-75M in H2 2025 from government and commercial customers. Supports full voice, data, and video at up to 120 Mbps peak speeds per cell.

/3
Read 27 tweets

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