C🅰️tSE Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024 22 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Let us look at the SDA opportunity.

What does $ASTS have that SDA might seek?

How does that fit with PWSA architecture and timelines.

Any hints there is a fit or work in progress between the two space architectures?

1/n Image
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AST was selected to be part of HALO pool. From this pool they can be awarded contract for 2 space vehicles.

This is when AST themselves became a prime DoD partner.

In parallell we know that another AST partner which also has a prime contract staus with the DoD are testing OISL Image
That other partner is Fairwinds.

They integrate as part of SBIR OSIL direct to Phase 2 a Skyloom OISL on a ASTS Flat Sat Simulator, with a 12-mo demonstration integrating the OISL onto the Sat and test events to verify interoperability between ASTS payload and an SDA OISL.

3/n
It’s easy to see how these two contracts are consecutive steps towards the same end goal.

Fairwinds ”effort will produce a study on how to integrate an SDA OISL onto a commercial LEO satellite and test data that verifies the interoperability between the two architectures.”

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And the HALO contract sets the stage for the next step, which is Space Vehicles launched under T2 DES a demonstrator tier of the PWSA to find new tech for the Tranche 3 layers.

5/n
Which, as there evidently are two steps towards a common goal already iniyiayed, brings us to ponder what the third step might be? And what the end goal might be?

This is where this thread shifts from known facts to more of speculation and hints.

T2DES seeks tech for T3

6/n Image
So let us look at T3.

Let’s start with the Legend and try and identify capabilities that an AST BlueBird wpuld have after succesful Skyloom OISL integration

7/n Image
First IBS-L a broadcast system in UHF.

Let’s flag that as possible because $ASTS BlueWalker 3 is transmitting in DMSP frequencies already another US program. And they’re in the approximate same frequenzy range. So we know AST satellites already have that UHF capability.
8/n
Then I get this from the communications Legend in Tranche 3 transport layer.

Nota Bene Tranche 3 has more layers and a software defined phased array has more use cases than coms.

But let’s stick with coms not to speculate too wildly.

9/n Image
Let’s now compare and contrast.

T3TL Upsilon is a good match for the known capabilities of an OISL equipped AST satellites.

One thing not full match.. Which is the Ka band fixed satellite service / feeder link

AST has a Q feeder link.

But wait..

10/n Image
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Part of Q band is actually also Ka band.

And 70cm Tendeg steerable feederlink antenna AST is using is capable of both bands.

AST requesting from 37.5 GHz which matches both bands.

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Meanwhile the DoD just initiated opening up their spectrum to co-equal access between the military and commercial companies around this intersection of Ka and Q.

Hat tip @no_privacy Thank You for sharing that proceeding w me.

So in a way the capabilities are a full match.

12/ Image
40 Upsilon will be ordered.

Not unusual that these are awarded to two different companies, nor that the number is expanded.

But at least a potential for a 20 sat order. At ~20 Mn each that is a ~400 Mn USD order potential.

13/ Image
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Does the SDA want giant phased arrays?

Yes they do.

It is in their roadmap.

14/ Image
” But.. ASt sats are for 3GPP cellular communications!!”

No, $ASTS FPGA phased arrays are pretty indifferent to coms protocols and it is just the Nokia -terrestrial- AirScale gNodeB that is

Think of satellite as a mirror that can reflect both civilian and DoD waveforms.

15/
$ASTS is building a vertically integrated high throughput production line.

That will have economy of scale that is very attractive to DoD.

There are also _many_ non coms use cases. MPAR, SIGINT, Weather radio occultation, MIMO-SAR,/FF-SAR that speaks to other T3 layers.

16/
Here is when DoD starts shopping for T3 layer.

The two T2 DES satellites will come long before that.
17/ Image
There are other less known facts like those to be found in MICRONSAT-2 filing.

A one year old still active ITU filing re: SpaceMobile constellation.

It is a filing for a layered architecture. Noteably a 1400 km shell.

SDA operates in this neighbourhood: 700-1200. AST 700-1400. Image
As theodorus tracks the Block1s are spacing out for a DoD non coms use case testing phase. Prior to communications testing.

Take note how these are spaced along track at each 1/4 of a full orbit.
This cat while on rodent control deep in ITU archives stumbled on this part of the MICRONSAT-2 filing a year ago.

It is interesting because it shows AST asking ITU coordination for 20 FPGAs / block1 spaced for the DoD non coms case one year ago.

And 328 block 2 spaced for coms Image
I hoped to show with this thread that two 2017 brain childs of AST SpaceMobile & DARPA Blackjack (later SDA PWSA) might have a higher degree of mutual coordination and planning of contract awards, technology roadmaps etc than what is publicly apparent.

They are a perfect match. Image

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More from @CatSE___ApeX___

Nov 25
🚨 $ASTS IS INCREASING ITS PATENT MOAT ESP. ON DOW ORBITS 🚨THIS PATENT COVERS THE SIGNAL-PROCESSING METHODS — SELECTION COMBINING, DIVERSITY COMBINING, AND MIMO — THAT ENABLE RELIABLE DIRECT-TO-CELL CONNECTIVITY FROM LEO SATELLITES TO STANDARD HANDSETS.

1/ Image
THE PROBLEM ADDRESSED: END USER DEVICES MAY RECEIVE MULTIPLE SATELLITE SIGNALS (MULTIPLE PATHS, SUB-ARRAYS, OR MULTI-SATELLITE LINKS) WITH DIFFERENT DELAYS, DOPPLER, AND SNRS.

THE PATENT SPECIFIES HOW TO CHOOSE AND COMBINE THESE SIGNALS TO MAXIMIZE LINK RELIABILITY.

2/
SELECTION COMBINING: the system monitors multiple receive branches and selects the best branch using quality metrics (e.g., SNR/BER estimates, channel quality indicators). selection lowers complexity and power for the handset when one branch dominates

3/ Image
Image
Read 13 tweets
Aug 11
Quarterly report thread. $ASTS

Excellent initial impression.

August delivery of FM1 !

5 launches before Q1 -26

1.5Bn+ at hand

🧶🐈‍⬛

1/

stocktitan.net/news/ASTS/ast-…
Signed two additional early-stage contracts for the U.S. Government end customer, bringing the total to eight contracts to date with the U.S. Government as an end customer.

This is huge.

The rate at which company adds DoD contracts is staggering. It’s not in analyst models.

2/
Service Rollout: Nationwide intermittent service in the US by end-2025, followed by UK, Japan, and Canada in Q1 2026. Expected revenue: $50-75M in H2 2025 from government and commercial customers. Supports full voice, data, and video at up to 120 Mbps peak speeds per cell.

/3
Read 27 tweets
May 20
Old and new FM1 Mission overview.

Gone is ”technology pathfinder”

And gone os that it is enhanced ..”to support the higher throughput”.

It’s simply ”.. an enhanced satellite bus (controlsat)”

Now how to do that?

🧶🐈‍⬛ Image
Image
Meet Aces 1 - 4 a technology pathfinder mission for DARPA Blackjack.

Notice modular design.

Piggy back payload.

Build your own satellite by adding modules.

This was the early vision on how to do golden dome / PWSA type satellites. Image
Image
Image
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Notice how a ”module” goes on top of bus.

It has two parts, antenna and connectivity module with laser links.

They were launched. Lessons learned.

And this concept is a 2017 brain child. As is $ASTS

3/ Image
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Read 14 tweets
Apr 11
🚨STARLINK DRAINS BATTERY 🚨

Why the Starlink 🪫 d2c earth moving cells are a really bad design choice can fill a book.

Carrying around an app that rapidly drains your battery in a disaster scenario isn’t optimal.

1/n
I’d like to focus not on how these rapid-fire beam to beam handovers causes dropped texts. Not on how that type of beams cause more border interference. Etc.

But on battery.

Starlink 🪫 d2c does not like
AST 🔋SpaceMobile fix the beam onto you with adaptive beamforming.

2/ Image
Starlink 🪫 d2c does just shines their beams down in a static fixed manner and as the satellites traverse the sky you are in a whole set of beams that hand over to eachother,

It does not track you.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 21
🚨 $ASTS TO LAUNCH SATELLITE 🚨

🐈‍⬛ BREAKING NEWS AFTER CLOSE 🐈‍⬛

AST SPACEMOBILE TRADING ON NASDAQ AS $ASTS FILES NEW STA FILING WITH THE @FCC. ASKS TO LAUNCH HUGE SATELLITE.

ASKS OK BEFORE APRIL 21.

SATELLITE SLATED FOR LAUNCH IN Q2 THIS YEAR. TENTATIVE MAY LAUNCH.

🧶🐈‍⬛

/1
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As we assumed AST uses STA instrument for the first Block 2 satellite.

Which is to be launched by ISRO

The narrative. Link:

.

And snapshots.

2/n apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.htm…Image
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The satellite feature a new formfactor.

Besides the 15.456 x 15.456 m dual use phased array/solar panel sandwich with cut corners we expected. It also has a 30m2 shark fin solar panel orthogonal to the solar panel of the array.

This is to get power more of the time.
3/n Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8
🚨FCC WAIVER IMPLICATIONS🚨

📓DEEPDIVE DD EXPLAINED 👨🏼‍💻

Let’s start:

The way you can differentiate emmissions in space [where] and in time [when] and in strength [how much] you can also differentiate in the frequenzy domain [which channel].

That you transmit in.

🧶🐈‍⬛

1/n
The transmissions are ”good signals” if they’re [when], [where], [as strong] and [which channel] combo that is needed to do the transmission that is sought for.

Another combo is ”a waste”.

But some other combos also do harm.
”Bad signal”

2/n
This is a result showing AST SpaceMobile technology to maximize the signal to which channel it is wanted in (blue) ”good signal” while minimizing it elsewhere, which is adjacent channels. (Green). ”Bad signal”

This is industry excellence.

3/n Image
Read 15 tweets

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