H.A. Hazony Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The Druze of southern Syria have publicly declared their desire to secede from Syria and be annexed to Israel.

Based on topography this is what the annexation would look like.

The IDF has already taken over the DMZ in yellow and moved into some of the Druze towns.
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For a recap on who the Druze are, see my thread from earlier this year:

A video has been released of the representatives of the Druze villages gathering on the border with Israel saying:

"Where is our fate? Israel!"

"We ask to be annexed to the Israeli Golan to preserve our dignity."
While it is unclear from the video who these people represent other than the town of Hader (they mention the "surrounding area")

I have marked the towns in the Mt. Hermon region with a majority Druze population (thanks to a map made by @BenTzionMacales) Image
This deceleration comes just days after @IsraelWarRoom reported that Netanyahu met with the leader of the Druze community in Israel (who have close kinship ties with the Syrian Druze).

Netanyahu emphasized the need for security for the Syrian Druze. Image
From a broader perspective, this would bring Israel's border just 25 km (15.5 miles) from Damascus.

The Druze live in a mountainous region, so it is conceivable to see their territory as a defensible front line in the face of whatever regime comes to power in Syria. Image
An additional video floating about, which I found through @visegrad24, purports to be of a resident of the city of Suwayda.

He calls Netanyahu a hero and calls on Druze politicians to work towards annexation into Israel.
The Druze population in Suwayda is greater, but as you see on the map, they aren't contiguous to Israel, and IDF troops are not currently anywhere near there.

The area is referred to as "Druze Mountain"

We need to see more action before projecting any kind of annexation there. Image
These two regions are the entire Druze population in Syria.

If they were to be annexed to Israel, a majority of the world's Druze would be living in Israel.

The State of Israel would become the de facto Druze homeland 70 some years after doing the same for the Jewish people. Image
The Druze historically supported Assad and are technically not Muslim.

They have good reason to be very afraid of the Islamist rebels taking over Damascus.

Annexing to Israel is a drastic measure, one they would only take if they feared possible genocide.
As I wrote in my thread on Turkey's actions in Syria, so far the Turks have been brutally cracking down on the Kurds in northern Syria. The Druze don't want to be next:

To understand Israeli interests in Syria, see my thread here.

In short, Israel wants as much space between itself and Jihadi forces:

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More from @HAHazony

Jun 25
The 12-Day War is over, Israel demolished enemies across the Middle East, and Trump & Bibi plan their victory lap in DC.

Naysayers deride the war as a mere averted catastrophe. In reality, Israel has attained regional dominance, & changed geopolitics forever.
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As @SpencerGuard reports, Israel undid Iran’s air defenses, operating with impunity and without casualties. Significant damage was done to the Iranian nuke program and 15 irreplaceable scientists were eliminated. So too, dozens of top military brass were assassinated.
1/ Image
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@SpencerGuard Iran’s ballistic missile factories were destroyed & ~65% of Iran's missile launchers & 1k stockpiled missiles were eliminated.
Even if Iranian munitions weren't depleted, their ability to fire is severely damaged. The “bottleneck” of Iranian firepower is now rate-of-fire.
2/ Image
Read 44 tweets
Jun 15
Israel's AF & Mossad struck Iran's nuclear & missile facilities, assassinating scientists & generals.

For months, the pro-Israel & isolationist factions in the Trump admin have been fighting over Iran policy.

Bibi & Trump played you all, & it’s going to change history. Thread. Image
When I was six, my father explained to me that you can't believe anything politicians say publicly, "it's all spin, all of it."

Even their bickering & infighting, it's all staged, and those very politicians attacking each other in the press are shaking hands in private.
2/ Image
Most people are simply not cynical enough to see the world through this lens, Machiavelli is too difficult for them to swallow.

So you heard cries of "Trump sold us out for a plane from Qatar" or "Trump is going to invade Iran & start WWIII."
On and on, all illusions.
3/ Image
Read 38 tweets
Feb 24
Israeli PM Netanyahu laid out his vision for southern Syria:

1) IDF will remain indefinitely across on the Hermon Mt.
2) Syrian forces won't be allowed south of Damascus.
3) IDF will ensure safety for the Druze in Syria.

Establishing a de facto autonomous Druze zone.
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A coalition of Druze have announced the formation of the Sweida Military Council.

The militia seeks to unite Druze forces and acquire the ability to ensure the safety of the populace in southern Syria.

The only obvious threat they could counter are Jolani's forces in Damascus. Image
The Council's statement can be found on this Kurdish Media post.

Essentially, they have thrown their lot in with the Kurdish SDF: they are willing to remain part of Syria, but they want local autonomy, and are willing to use military force to keep it.
Read 14 tweets
Jan 16
"The hostage deal is a mistake, undoubtedly, but one the Israeli government has to make.
While the agreement will endanger the lives of IDF soldiers, and raise the likelihood of copycat attacks in the future, the political constellation has forced Netanyahu's hand."
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Those were the words I wrote in Nov. 22, '23, before the previous hostage deal between Israel and Hamas was signed.

As the sentiment against the current deal is boiling to the point of hysteria, it is time to do this again.

1/14
The deal promises a release of 33 Israelis (women & children) in return for 990 terrorists.

During this time, the IDF will withdraw from population centers in Gaza, and 600 trucks of humanitarian aid will enter the strip a day.

2/14 Image
Read 16 tweets
Dec 15, 2024
Following yesterday's discussion of Israeli annexation of Druze villages, Erdogan publicly states that Syria's major cities could become Turkish provinces.

Discussed region: Purple.
Turkish occupied territories: Black.

What interests does Turkey have in this region? Image
Yesterday, Dec. 14, 2024, President of Turkey spoke before his party at Sakarya.

He indicated that the post-WWI situation in the middle east was over. Essentially, he is saying what everyone has known for years: The Sykes-Picot paradigm is a mess and needs to be junked.
Of course Erdogan DIDN'T say that he was GOING to annex parts of Syria.

The statement was hypothetical, it could easily mean that he will annex the whole country.

It could also mean that he isn't going to annex anything at all.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 11, 2024
It's been two days since Assad fled Syria, the government collapsed, and the rebels took power.

Why then does the fighting continue?
Why is Turkey bombing northern Syria?
And what are the key Turkish interests in Syria?

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Turkey played a pivotal role in toppling the Assad regime, supplying HTS with armored vehicles & Toyotas.

The Rebels; "Shaheen" suicide drone is allegedly of Ukrainian design, how it found its way to Syria is still unclear, but Turkey may have played a role Image
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Furthermore, Turkey exerts direct control over the Syrian National Army.

Together with their proxies, they took control of large regions in Northern Syria between 2016-2019. Image
Read 12 tweets

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