Thread by @karimfranceschi

"Chaos Isn’t A Pit. Chaos Is A Ladder."

🧵 al-Jolani’s Playbook

From al-Qaeda footsoldier to ruler of Syria, Jolani didn’t just rise — he climbed the ladder of chaos.

Using subterfuge, betrayal, and strategy, he turned Idlib into his testing ground for statecraft.

1/
I’ve dissected his playbook.
To see what’s coming, look at what’s been.
AANES faces two paths — dismantlement or war. There’s no third option.

Here’s how it all plays out 🧵

2/
The Lab of Idlib was a prototype for state-building.
Jolani’s methods:

🏦 Courts: HTS dismantled rival courts & installed their own.
⚔️ Military Monopoly: No force moved in Idlib without Jolani’s consent.

HTS wasn’t just a rebel faction — it was a state in waiting.

3/ Divide, Subdue, Control
In Idlib every rival faced the same fate:

1️⃣ Offer peace on humiliating terms.
2️⃣ Target their leadership.
3️⃣ Arrest their commanders.
4️⃣ Arrest/Absorb their fighters into HTS’s ranks.

Ahrar al-Sham, Jund al-Aqsa, and Hurras al-Din fell this way.

4/ "All warfare is based on deception." Sun Tzu
Jolani’s greatest skill isn’t even war — but subterfuge.
He enticed rebel leaders into "talks" only to arrest them mid-negotiation.
He made allies think he wanted peace — only to strike them when their guard was down.

5/ January 2017: Jolani exploited cracks in Ahrar al-Sham.
•Jan 21: 5 factions (like Jaysh al-Ahrar) split & joined HTS.
•Jan 23-24: HTS captured Ahl al-Sham’s bases in Atarib & W. Aleppo, forcing them to merge with Ahrar.
HTS’s divide-and-conquer strategy had begun.

6/ Sound familiar?
Maybe because the spokesperson for the SDF-affiliated Deir ez-Zor Military Council, Turki al-Dhari, announced his defection, along with six commanders, just a couple of days ago. HTS thus took Deir ez-Zor city and airport without firing a shot.

7/
Jolani playbook vs. Hurras al-Din:

1. Frame them as “extremists”.
2. Paint HTS as the “moderate” alternative.
3. Rally support from external players (Turkey / US) to isolate them.
4. Dismantle them piece-by-piece.

Substitute the US strikes with Turkey's, and there you go.

8/
Jolani’s Playbook vs. AANES:

1. Frame AANES as Assad allies, & foreign agents.
2. Paint himself as the “moderate” alternative.
3. Staged unrest in Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa & other areas.
4. Target leaders, break unity.

Idlib 2017 ➡️ Syria 2024
Same script.

9/
Let's skip to point 2.
Jolani isn’t even Jolani anymore — he’s Mr. Ahmed Al-Sharaa (السيد أحمد الشرع). That’s how far he’s rebranding. And Mr. Al-Sharaa is now all about the Kurds. He’s ready to restore their rights, even return Afrin — but on one condition... @OmarAlchiekh

@OmarAlchiekh 10/
For Mr. Al-Sharaa, there’s a "distinction" between Kurds & PKK — which, in his mind, somehow includes the SDF & every AANES military council. His decree? Everyone disarms (especially Kurds), while HTS — a jihadist group on everyone’s terror list — gets to play soldier boys.

11/
Hear that, Kurds? Just give up on self-defense, and he’ll totally return Afrin to you.
Mr. Al-Sharaa isn’t Jolani anymore — remember Jolani? The one who endorsed Turkey's invasions and ethnic cleansings?

Well, he wasn’t wearing a suit in 2019.

12/
In 2020 to maintain his dominance, Jolani banned the creation of new "operations rooms" (joint military coalitions) without his approval. When dissident commanders from HTS formed Fa-Ithbatu, HTS crushed it within days, raiding their HQs and jailing the leaders.

13/
In Idlib’s protostate, Jolani's monopoly on violence proved decisive. His plan is in full swing, but one obstacle remains: he can change his name & clothes, but getting off the terror list isn’t easy. With legacy media & AANES talks, he’s chasing legitimacy with the West.

14/
Think Jolani will act any differently than in Idlib?

With a US backed SDF he’s forced to keep the gloves on while attempting to:

1️⃣ Divide them politically
2️⃣ Isolate them militarily
3️⃣ Decapitate their leadership

While preparing for the inevitable military clash.

15/
Turkey-backed SNA aggression fits Jolani's strategy of militarily isolating AANES. The ethnic cleansing, the loss of symbolic cities like Manbij — it’s all part of his scheme to erode SDF's prestige and convince the people to disarm.

16/
Some may yield, but the hardened cadre who bore the brunt of a decade-long fight — a testament to Kurdish valor — never will. Jolani knows this. His real question is: how much can he weaken them before the inevitable battlefield clash?

End/ “When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground.”
Few divides are as absolute as the one between AANES's secular, pluralistic democracy and HTS's vision of an Islamic state governed by Sharia.