spencer 🦈 Profile picture
Dec 18 23 tweets 9 min read Read on X
I, for one, remain unconvinced that Luigi Mangione is guilty of shooting Brian Thompson.

We’ve all seen the eyebrows and jacket, but there’s a lot more to this case. This is not a conspiracy theory.

Let’s walk through the manifesto and the inconsistencies in the evidence.🧵
To begin, Mangione is alleged by police to have been carrying a manifesto confessing to the crime.

Yet his lawyer tells press he will plead not guilty.

This is the core question of the case:

Did Mangione actually write this?
Mangione described evidence being planted on him in court, specifically the $10K in multiple currencies.

He didn’t mention the manifesto or gun, perhaps under advice from his lawyer, but has maintained he is innocent.

The only thing he has been able to state publicly was this:
The manifesto describes the use of CAD, a drafting software.

Presumably, this would have been used to design the 3D-printed gun, but the model provided by police is a widely available template.

Mangione didn’t design this gun. So what was he drafting?

wired.com/story/luigi-ma…alleged manifesto:  "To the Feds, I'll keep this short, because I do respect what you do for our country. To save you a lengthy investigation, I state plainly that I wasn't working with anyone. This was fairly trivial: some elementary social engineering, basic CAD, a lot of patience. The spiral notebook, if present, has some straggling notes and To Do lists that illuminate the gist of it. My tech is pretty locked down because I work in engineering so probably not much info there. I do apologize for any strife of traumas but it had to be done.”
The FMDA 19.2, released in 2021, is a relatively old model by 3D-printed-gun standards, says one gunsmith who goes by the first name John and the online handle Mr. Snow Makes. But it's one of the most well-known and well-tested printable ghost gun designs, he says. The Chairmanwon Vl remix that police say Mangione had in his possession when he was arrested in a Altoona, Pennsylvania McDonald's varies from that original FMDA 19.2 design only in that another amateur gunsmith, who goes by the pseudonym Chairmanwon, added a different texture to the gun's grip.
The manifesto also says “my tech is pretty locked down because I work in engineering so probably not much info there”, suggesting his employer restricts/monitors his laptop.

This indicates he would have used CAD on another computer.

Have police recovered it?
What did he draft?
The manifesto then mentions a spiral notebook, which was provided to media outlets by police sources.

However, the full contents of this have still not been published.

Nor have photos of any of these documents, which were allegedly handwritten.

crimeonline.com/2024/12/10/ceo…
Police also say they have matched fingerprints discovered near the scene.

Most sources only mention prints on a water bottle and energy bar wrapper — but others mention them on a burner phone.

transcripts.cnn.com/show/cnc/date/…KEILAR: The NYPD says investigators have matched that gun that was found with Mangione when he was arrested Monday to shell casings that were found at the crime scene. And the NYPD commissioner says Mangione's fingerprints matched ones that were found on material gathered in the search for the killer, including a water bottle and a food wrapper. Sources also say that his prints were on a burner phone that was found at the crime scene. But Mangione's attorney says he has yet to see any of the evidence himself and he tried to cast doubt on it.
The burner phone is inconsistent with the first statement of the alleged manifesto: “I wasn’t working with anyone.”

Of course he could be covering for co-conspirators, but the questions stand:

What’s on the burner phone?
Why aren’t police following this lead for accomplices?
Allegations that the suspect was carrying the gun and manifesto are also inconsistent with police reports that the suspect dropped a decoy backpack full of fake money near the scene.

Why drop a decoy within minutes, but carry the murder weapon on his person for five days?
The decoy backpack also allegedly contained a Tommy Hilfiger jacket. Police are in possession.

Does it match the coat from CCTV images on the night of the shooting — or the different coat in the ones from the day before?

Does it match any of these coats? Why not release photos?
Of course, many have also pointed to the eyebrows. It’s very hard to tell from these photos, but it’s a valid question as to whether these two sets show the same person.

The backpacks are certainly not the same. Image
Image
Image
Now a lot of the evidence against Mangione concerns motive: his spinal injury, his book reviews.

These pieces of evidence do not connect him to the shooting, but let’s take a look at them regardless…
Mangione’s spinal injury provides a strong potential motive, yet this is not referenced in the manifesto.

Only broad statistics are offered as motivation in the document: Frankly, these parasites simply had it coming. A reminder: the US has the #1 most expensive healthcare system in the world, yet we rank roughly #42 in life expectancy. United is the [indecipherable] largest company in the US by market cap, behind only Apple, Google, Walmart. It has grown and grown, but as our life expectancy?
If Mangione had been motivated by his own suffering at the hands of a health insurance corporation, one might expect him to target the executives responsible for his coverage.

Yet United Health says Mangione was never insured by the corporation.

forbes.com/sites/tylerrou…
The manifesto’s broad stance against the corrupt US health system is also interesting considering the many citations and fines associated with the Mangione family’s private health care corporation.

msn.com/en-us/health/o…
Finally, Mangione’s now infamous review of Ted Kaczynski’s manifesto suggests an affinity for radical vigilantism.

But his roommate is on record as having recommended he read it. The rest of his reading history is decidedly less radical.

thedailybeast.com/roommate-spill…
Again, while some may infer the possibility of a conspiracy from these evidentiary inconsistencies, nothing compiled here attempts to describe a conspiracy.

These are basic questions about the evidence against Mangione presented to the public — questions media should be asking.
Yet there seems to be a double standard in media surrounding the presumption of innocence.

To this day, headlines refer to victims of convicted rapist Jeffrey Epstein as “accusers”, yet Mangione has often not been granted the same presumption of innocence. CBS NEWS  12 Epstein accusers sue the FBI for allegedly failing to protect them  By Cara Tabachnick February 14, 2024
Reuters  JPMorgan's $290 million settlement with Epstein accusers approved by US judge  By Luc Cohen November 9, 2023 6:43 PM EST • Updated a year ago
FORBES  UHC Shooter Luigi Mangione Appears To Have Been A Redditor - And He Researched Back Pain And Backpacks  'Nobody will operate on my back until I'm at least 40' is nonsense coming from a medical professional who lacks perspective."
msn  United Healthcare CEO Shooter Luigi Mangione Was Reportedly Suffering From Surf-Related Back Injury  Story by Juan Hernandez • 3d
As the case goes to trial, journalistic outlets have a responsibility to raise more critical questions about whether Mangione pulled the trigger — regardless of what it implies if guilt can’t be proven.
Am I convinced of a frame-up? No. More evidence could come out.

But I’m also not convinced Mangione is the shooter at this point and believe more should question this conclusion.

You don’t have to treat the case as if on the jury — which needs absolute proof — but be skeptical.
Finally, I said I wouldn’t get into this, but I think it’s important to provide some context:

False convictions are not unusual. NY DAs, for instance, routinely release hundreds of inmates whose cases were constructed by criminal NYPD officers.

manhattanda.org/d-a-bragg-move…
Here’s one last detail that I’ll leave you with, which I believe has been underplayed:

Police released the alleged manifesto to media outlets on the condition that it would not be published in full.

Were they concerned about copycats or the public taking a close read?
Thanks for the enthusiastic response. Not a lot of good rebuttals, but here’s a fair point.

Let’s ignore what seems to be footage of the shooter on the phone and say he didn’t contact anyone.

The burner phone was left intact, near the scene? NYPD can’t decrypt it? Image

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More from @Unpop_Science

Nov 20
A lot of commentators rushed out hasty analyses of the US election. Now that the dust has settled & 99% of the votes are counted, let’s talk about the data.

You may have seen this visualization going around, used to assert “the country is moving right”.

That’s not accurate. 🧵 Infamous NYT arrow visualization, depicting “swing” in county vote proportions across the US (it’s virtually all red).
To interpret these proportional shifts as a change in ideology assumes the same voters turned out in 2020 & 2024. This is a false premise.

Republicans gained ~2.6M votes from 2020. Dems lost ~7M.

The “rightward shift” in vote proportions belies a Democratic turnout collapse. 2020 totals: Biden: 81,283,361 Trump: 74,222,960
2024 totals: Harris: 74,254,965 Trump: 76,801,633
By demographic, we can see that groups being blamed in media for Harris’ loss — Black men, Latinos, young people, etc. — did not vote Republican as much as they simply did not vote. Estimated changes in votes (in millions) Applying exit-poll data to candidate vote totals, keeping one significant digit. • Harris, relative to Biden in 2020 • Trump, relative to 2020  Democrats lose turnout in all demographics, except 65+ age and $100K+ income  Republicans gain in all demographics, except $50K- income  Sources: Edison Research, U.S. Election Atlas, Post Pulse THE WASHINGTON POST
Read 5 tweets
Oct 16
Have you ever heard that fish farming is a sustainable alternative to wild catch?

Here’s everything they left out.

My first scientific paper:
Feeding Global Aquaculture

w/ @jenniferjacquet, Patricia Majluf, & @matthewhayek

out now with open access 🧵

science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…Science Advances special issue on aquaculture cover: a salmon farm in a fjord (link below)
To begin, millions of tonnes of wild fish are laundered as “byproduct”.

The composition of feed is also opaque. We recalculated using 4 peer-reviewed sources, yielding a range of results.

The use of wild fish for aquaculture feed is likely much higher than previously estimated. The extraction of wild fish to manufacture aquaculture feed has been downplayed.  Feed formulations have been obscured and millions of tons of wild fish are laundered as "byproduct". Wild fish extracted for aquaculture feed may be far higher than previously estimated.  Figure 1
Wild fish extraction for aquaculture feed is particularly intensive for carnivorous species.

No matter which source we used, wild fish mortality was multiple times the biomass of food produced.

When we consider collateral mortality during fishing, the ratio climbed higher yet. Farming carnivorous species consumes multiple times the food it produces.  Salmon feed can result in the mortality of anywhere between 1.9 to more than 6 times the biomass it produces, depending on the source used for feed composition.  Figure 3
Read 8 tweets
Oct 12
Terrifying visualization —

The top 5 global methane hotspots are all in the United States:

1. Permian Basin
2. Los Angeles Basin
3. Denver-Julesberg Basin
4. Gulf Coast processing complex
5. Marcellus Shale Formation

They told us gas was clean fuel. It was a climate nuke.🧵
And it’s ongoing —

The world still hasn’t come to reckon with the consequences of the fracking boom.

The US’ scorched-earth gas extraction policy in the late 2000’s opened millions of free-flowing methane vents from shale deposits into the atmosphere —

w/ no sign of stopping. NOAA atmospheric methane readings — inflection in late 00’s with fracking boom and accelerating trend
They told us methane gas was a “clean-burning” “bridge fuel” to renewable energy.

What they left out was that it leaks directly into the atmosphere at every stage.

With even a small amount of leakage, gas emits more GHGs than any other fossil fuel.

scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…Figure 1 from cited article  using what we now know are generous estimates for “fugitive” or leaking methane during extraction, transport, and processing, the CO2 equivalent emissions of gas exceed all other fossil fuels.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 22
Joseph Biden will be remembered, above all else, for the genocide of Gaza.

But I’d like to take a moment to reflect on his horrific environmental record.

A few key points: 🧵
Biden held record-breaking auctions of federal land for oil and gas drilling leases, outpacing Trump by ~50%.

During his campaign, he repeatedly lied about this, saying, “No more drilling on federal lands — period.”

subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews…
Biden suspended 26 federal environmental & humanitarian laws to accelerate construction of the US-Mexico border wall, where thousands of asylum seekers remain incarcerated in internment camps.

He lied about this, saying “not another foot” would be built.

apnews.com/article/border…
Read 7 tweets
Jul 9, 2023
10 years ago, Allan Savory gave a TED Talk and sparked a global craze about healing the climate with ranching.

His claims have been exhaustively refuted, but not many have asked — where does this myth originate?

Join me for a horrifying history. 🐘🧵

authorrise.org/blogpost/18d58…
Our story begins in Rhodesia: a now-extinct British colony in Southern Africa.

As Britain had little land and high demand for meat, ranching cattle and sheep for export became an important sector of the Rhodesian economy.

But colonists met some challenges…
There were already grazers on the Zimbabwean savannas: antelope of all kinds, buffalo, zebra, rhinoceros — but one animal above all interfered with the colonial agricultural project: the elephant.
Read 26 tweets
May 9, 2023
Historic buffalo populations only produced around 1/3 the methane emissions of US cattle ranches today, according to population reconstructions and industry feed trial data.

Here is a great article on this:

mrdrscienceteacher.wordpress.com/2019/09/21/bis…

Let’s break it down in this thread:
🦬🐄🧵
First, there were not 100 million bison in the 1840s, nor at any point in recorded history.

The max estimate is around 60 million, but the mean is more like 45.

smithsonianmag.com/science-nature…
Bison produce ~30 kg/yr in feeding trials eating unlimited alfalfa pellets.

Their wild diet probably does not produce that much, but we’ll use the conservative value anyway.

30 kgCH4/yr * 45M bison = 1.35B kgCH4/yr

nrcresearchpress.com/doi/pdfplus/10… Bison Emissions  According ...
Read 9 tweets

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