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Brad Wilcox Profile picture
@BradWilcoxIFS
Dec 19 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
In 2024, the link between voting Republican & having more babies deepened. Here's what it looked like in the '24 presidential election: Image
Here's the shift illustrated from 2012-2024 by @grantjbailey:

R Squared goes from...

.08 in 2012 to .26 in 2024: Image
But as @PTBwrites noted, while Republican counties have higher fertility rates, these babies are not necessarily being born into more stable families.
The "growing fertility divide has important political implications." Image
Image
"After '20 election, IFS published an article arguing there was a 'conservative fertility advantage'—basically, conservatives have more babies than liberals. That fact appears to have become even more true in '24." @grantjbailey @lymanstoneky ifstudies.org/blog/the-trump…

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More from @BradWilcoxIFS

Brad Wilcox Profile picture
Oct 31
1. "Is the long-standing tie between the Republican Party & marriage fraying in an era when the party’s standard bearer has flouted so many of the institution’s values and virtues?

No, the data suggest that the relationship between the Republican Party and marriage has largely persisted amidst the Trump era." @FamStudiesifstudies.org/blog/the-repub…
2. "Overall, the relative Republican advantage when it comes to [marriage] has grown a bit, even as fewer Americans—including Republicans—are currently married."

Re: Marriage:
✔️ In 2000, Rs > Ds by 10 percentage pts
✔️ In 2022, Rs > Ds 15 percentage pts Image
3. Marriage is down most among less-educated Americans, as these figures indicate. But it's also the case that less-educated Republicans are markedly more likely to be married: Image
Image
Read 9 tweets
Brad Wilcox Profile picture
Sep 28
Never thought I'd see this.

Churchgoing ⬆️ in Gen Z.

Led by... young men.

@ryanburge: "Religious attendance is actually *increasing* among [young] men." Image
Image
Source:
"Since this is a newish trend, it’s amenable to all manner of speculative interpretations, but two competing ones stand out. A masculinization of American Christianity could be seen as yet another force driving the polarization of the sexes.. Or it could be seen as a potential answer to that polarization, a positive sign for male-female relations in the long run." @DouthatNYT nytimes.com/2024/09/27/opi…
Read 4 tweets
Brad Wilcox Profile picture
Sep 25
1. We know the "success sequence" is tied to better economic outcomes for young adults.

The sequence is also tied to better emotional outcomes & less distress. @FamStudies
Image
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2. "Even after controlling for income, the sequence remains a significant factor in predicting young adult mental health. Their odds of experiencing high emotional distress by their mid-30s are reduced by about 50% for young adults who have completed the 3 steps of the Success Sequence, after controlling for a range of background factors."
3. One reason this is the case is that the sequence is linked to greater family stability. For instance:

"Millennials who married before having children are more likely to have stable marriages. Among Millennials who followed this path, 73% are in intact families (married / never divorced) by their mid-30s, compared with only 30% of those who had children before or outside of marriage." ifstudies.org/ifs-admin/reso…
Read 5 tweets
Brad Wilcox Profile picture
Sep 12
1. Parenthood gets a bad rap in MSM (see NYT below).

Given @JonHaidt @jean_twenge research on ideology & mental health, I wondered if negativity driven by progressive commitments of journalists. Turns out:

Striking differences in parental happiness by ideology, per 2022 GSS.
Image
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2. Today, "conservative parents are more likely to report they are very happy w their lives" than liberals

✔️33% of conservative parents "very happy" VS
✔️ 22% of liberal parents "very happy"

Source: @WendyRWang @AlysseElHage @BradWilcoxIFS @Deseret deseret.com/family/2024/09…
Image
3. Conservatives also enjoy “higher quality relationships with their children, characterized by fewer arguments, more warmth & a stronger bond, according to both parent and child reporting" per @jtrothwell @BrookingsInst. Image
Read 8 tweets
Brad Wilcox Profile picture
Aug 18
If "conservative forms of fatherhood were obviously toxic relative to the Walzian glories of liberal dadhood, you would presumably expect to see those effects made manifest among children," @DouthatNYT. But the data pt in a different direction:

Image
Image
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As @JonHaidt has noted, it's progressive young women whose mental health has tanked the most in recent years: afterbabel.com/p/mental-healt…
@JonHaidt And as @jtrothwell @BrookingsInst has found, “Conservative parents are the most likely to adopt the parenting practices associated with adolescent mental health”, which is “warm, responsive, *and* rule-bound, disciplined parenting.” ifstudies.org/blog/parenting…
Read 4 tweets
Brad Wilcox Profile picture
Jul 15
1. Big family policy news w/ this selection.

@JDVance1 interested in advancing policies re:

✓ Marriage penalties facing w-c families

✓ Minimizing costs of having a baby

✓ Maximizing childcare choices

✓ Expanding child tax credit

@politicopoliti.co/3zI3Ubr
2. @JDVance1 proposed amendment re: the marriage penalty congress.gov/amendment/118t…
@JDVance1 3. @JDVance1 has expressed support for a policy to “make birth free” &, more broadly, policies that ensure that new parents are not hit w/ huge bill for childbirth.
Read 6 tweets

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