27 predictions for 2025🧵
1. The US will reemerge as the dominant global hub of crypto.
Founders will move back and open offices in NY.
US conferences will be larger than their Asian counterparts.
Founders will move back and open offices in NY.
US conferences will be larger than their Asian counterparts.
2. 10+ DeFi protocols will finally turn on fee switches.
Uniswap will be one of them.
Uniswap will be one of them.
3. DeFi protocols will increasingly rehypothecate customer assets as a business model.
This includes bridges, LSTs, etc...
This includes bridges, LSTs, etc...
4. The North Star debate in Ethereum will be settled.
There will be minimal efforts to scale the L1 (gas target gets to 50M gwei, discussion around shorter block times heat up), but ultimately the rollup centric roadmap will be reaffirmed.
Max's push ultimately won't succeed.
There will be minimal efforts to scale the L1 (gas target gets to 50M gwei, discussion around shorter block times heat up), but ultimately the rollup centric roadmap will be reaffirmed.
Max's push ultimately won't succeed.
5. This will create much-needed cohesion in Ethereum and sentiment will become more positive.
Some amount of dissenters will leave the ecosystem in frustration.
ETH token price will do well.
Some amount of dissenters will leave the ecosystem in frustration.
ETH token price will do well.
6. Based rollups ultimately won't take off in 2025.
Good enough interop via protocols like Across will be achieved.
No line of sight to universal synchronous composability.
Good enough interop via protocols like Across will be achieved.
No line of sight to universal synchronous composability.
7. TEEs will become an integral (and ultimately permanent) component of L2 infrastructure.
8. Doubling down on last year's prediction, this will still be the cycle of Solana.
That said, the cracks will begin to emerge in 2025.
REV will struggle to reach new highs as memecoins disperse and MEV presents challenges.
Maximalism will rise to combat these issues.
That said, the cracks will begin to emerge in 2025.
REV will struggle to reach new highs as memecoins disperse and MEV presents challenges.
Maximalism will rise to combat these issues.
9. Firedancer will ship in Q4, 100K TPS achieved.
10. Solana will change its issuance policy to reduce inflation, Ethereum will not.
11. Base will emerge as the breakout competitor to Solana and winner of the rollup ecosystem.
Total assets on Base will exceed $40 billion.
Total assets on Base will exceed $40 billion.
12. Base becomes the dominant chain for AI agents (and potential AI offshoots)
13. Stablecoins become the dominant asset held on L2s.
There will be at least 2X as many stables as ETH.
There will be at least 2X as many stables as ETH.
14. Stablecoins will have a breakout year.
Market cap will exceed $450B.
Stables will be a top 3 investment category from VCs.
Market cap will exceed $450B.
Stables will be a top 3 investment category from VCs.
15. 5+ big fintechs or TradFi institutions will launch stablecoins in 2025.
This will put pressure on existing stables, growth rates for incumbents will slow.
This will put pressure on existing stables, growth rates for incumbents will slow.
16. 10+ corporates (banks, web 2 giants, etc...) will launch L2s.
These will mostly do nothing and fail to gain any significant traction.
The possible exceptions would be fintechs (sc Robinhood).
These will mostly do nothing and fail to gain any significant traction.
The possible exceptions would be fintechs (sc Robinhood).
17. Robinhood becomes a dominant player in 2025 via their large user base and blue chip brand.
By end of year the industry will group them in with Coinbase as the leading two US exchanges.
By end of year the industry will group them in with Coinbase as the leading two US exchanges.
18. The L1 trade will continue to work, it is not dead and won't be for some time.
Fastest horses will be Sui and HyperLiquid.
Fastest horses will be Sui and HyperLiquid.
19. The ICO meta will reemerge, albeit not in as dominant a fashion as 2017.
Investor protections will be better, they will look like crowdsales.
5 blue chip protocols will conduct an ICO.
Investor protections will be better, they will look like crowdsales.
5 blue chip protocols will conduct an ICO.
20. Venture capital investment will return, but the numbers won't be as large as 2021.
2021 crypto venture investment: $30B
2025 crypto venture investment: $20-$25B
Get ready for more $50M-$100M raises.
2021 crypto venture investment: $30B
2025 crypto venture investment: $20-$25B
Get ready for more $50M-$100M raises.
21. The IPO door will open for crypto companies, but won't be blown off its hinges.
4+ companies will IPO, but there is still a valuation overhang from 2021 which will impede more companies going public.
Growth equity still won't enter the space.
4+ companies will IPO, but there is still a valuation overhang from 2021 which will impede more companies going public.
Growth equity still won't enter the space.
22. The dominant meta in 2025 is AI x Crypto.
Continued advancements in foundational models will prompt media headlines, which will translate into more AI coins.
Continued advancements in foundational models will prompt media headlines, which will translate into more AI coins.
23. There will be multiple AI metas and extend beyond simply agents.
Different types of agents will be attempted (creators, hedge fund traders, artists, etc...).
The vast majority of these will be early iterations and unsuccessful.
Different types of agents will be attempted (creators, hedge fund traders, artists, etc...).
The vast majority of these will be early iterations and unsuccessful.
24. TikTok will have the largest influence it has ever had, CT will become exit liquidity for some TikTok coins
25. Significant legislation gets passed in the US.
Either an updated version of the market structure of stablecoin bill get signed.
Either an updated version of the market structure of stablecoin bill get signed.
26. Bitcoin L2s fail to take off in 2025.
We are still a long ways off from true ZK Bitcoin L2s.
We are still a long ways off from true ZK Bitcoin L2s.
27. Crypto is widely recognized as a permanent force in US politics.
MSM begins to slowly change its tune as it realizes crypto isn't going away.
MSM begins to slowly change its tune as it realizes crypto isn't going away.
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