Thread by @Atlas_Freeman_

I asked Grok (Twitter AI) to give me the data on those not seeking re-election 2009-2016 and 2017-2024. I then asked grok if 2017-2024 was unusual compared to 2009-2016.. Here's what it said:

A thread - 🧵

Based on the available data:

2009-2016: At least 133 members announced they would not seek re-election (with missing data for 2009-2011). Assuming an average similar to the known years, we might estimate around 180-200 total retirements for this period.

2017-2024: 349 members announced they would not seek re-election.

Average per Year:

2009-2016: Even with an optimistic estimation, the average would be around 25-33 per year (180-200 divided by 8 years).

2017-2024: The average is 43.6 per year.

Unusualness:

Yes, the numbers from 2017 to 2024 are unusually high compared to the earlier period. This period's retirement rate is notably above historical norms when we compare it to the known data of the previous cycle, even accounting for the missing years.

Now let's look at the numbers for governors -

Total: 8 governors announced they would not seek re-election or were term-limited from 2009 to 2016.

Total: 25 governors announced they would not seek re-election or were term-limited from 2017 to 2024.

The numbers for 2017-2024 are unusually higher compared to 2009-2016, indicating a significant increase in governors choosing not to seek re-election or being forced out by term limits.

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