Thread by @RamiJarrah

🧵This man poses an existential threat that could irreparably divide Syria, yet ironically, addressing this threat head-on in such sensitive times risks being misinterpreted as an attempt to sow division. But Ahmad Al-Awda is a ticking time-bomb.

Here’s why:

2. Once leader of the "Shabab al-Sunna" a free Syrian army faction in Daraa, Ahmad al-Awda, transitioned from opposing the Syrian regime to collaborating with it.

In 2018, he negotiated a reconciliation deal as the regime, backed by Russia, regained Daraa. Al-Awda integrated his forces into the Russian-backed Fifth Corps' Eighth Brigade, allowing former opposition fighters some autonomy under Russian patronage.

3. While his association with Russia and Iran was seen as a pragmatic move to maintain influence in the region Al-Awda essentially benefited Assad and his allies, against Syrians who opposed the Assad regime, and through an agreement allowed both Russia and Iran to place Daraa under siege.

He has also long been involved in smuggling antiquities and commercialising aid to the city, and is seen by most Syrians as having betrayed his own people in Daraa.

4. As anti-Assad forces gained momentum in early December 2024 and were gaining territory towards Damascus, HTS coordinated with Ahmad al-Awda, who then "scrapped" his alliance with Russia and mobilised his forces to penetrate the capital. On December 7th, his forces reached the outskirts of the city, and by December 8th, they had entered Damascus.

5. Ahmad al-Awda’s entry into Damascus on December 8, 2024, sparked further controversy with rumours that his forces looted the Central Bank, before moving on to Maher al-Assad’s office, where they allegedly destroyed documents, while assisting the peaceful handover by the regime, which included escorting Assad regime members to safety.

Additionally, it is claimed that al-Awda’s group attempted to destroy documents in the State Security building, an act seen by many as an attempt to conceal crucial evidence, possibly protecting Assad and serving Russia.

6. Once Al-Shara'a himself made it to Damascus, he began a series of meetings. On December 12th he met with military faction leaders of the southern front.

Al-Awda was present in the meeting, and many saw this as a signal that his forces would be integrated into a newly established Syrian army, Al-Awda has expressed willingness but has since shown no signs of committing to this essential move.

7. An image circulating on social media suggested that Al-Awda met with Sheikh Ratib Al Nabilsi, a Sufi cleric who returned to Damascus on December 31, 2024, after 13 years in exile. While the cleric's office did not deny the meeting, they clarified that this photo was taken in 2021 in Jordan, where they had met previously.

This raises doubts about the recent meeting's authenticity, but if true, it would signify Al-Awda's efforts to build ties with religious leaders who hold ideological differences with Al-Shara'a.

8. On January 4, 2025, Al-Awda showcased his military strength with a significant parade between Bosra ash-Sham, his main base, and Izra, this a week after HTS marched its forces to Umayyad Sq, and was seen as a signal to Al-Shara’a’s newly formed defense ministry highlighting his expanding power.

9. Al-Awda is known for his ties with the UAE and Jordan, and his growing influence is now raising serious concerns. His recent trip to Jordan suggests a potential strengthening of these alliances.

The risk of him becoming Syria’s equivalent of Libya’s Haftar is increasingly real. With his thirst for power, backed by foreign support, Al-Awdah could plunge the country into civil war much sooner than the most pessimistic predictions, making this a scenario that demands urgent attention.