Arnaud Bertrand Profile picture
Jan 8 1 tweets 3 min read Read on X
If you weren't yet convinced that Europe is stepping into its century of humiliation, that ought to do it x.com/BehizyTweets/s…

Trump says that the US need Greenland "for national security purposes" and "for the free world", and claims that "people really don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to it" (which is 100% false).

Would he ever dare say this with regards to Chinese or Russian territory? Not in a million years. But he sees that not only is Europe weak but also in the absolutely disastrous strategic situation where it is "defended" by him! Which means that Europe is effectively trapped in a mob-style protection racket and is about to relearn the old geopolitical adage (attributed to Thucydides): "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must".

So many ironies here of course, starting with Trump's claim about protecting the "free world" through territorial annexation.

Second irony is that Europe's hysterical fixation on Russian imperialism - more phantom than reality given Russia's demonstrated capabilities - has led it to sleepwalk into the clutches of an actual empire that now casually discusses carving it up.

Last but not least, probably the bigger irony is that no-one in the whole world is going to care because of Europe's double-standards and hypocrisy in its own dealings with the rest of the world, and Gaza in particular. Since the very beginning of Gaza (and again yesterday: x.com/RnaudBertrand/…) I wrote that the bigger meaning of Europe's response would be the death of any pretense to an global order based on international law.

And that's exactly where we are. By choosing to openly abandon even the appearance of principles Europe has essentially announced it was ok with "might makes right". A monumentally stupid thing to do when you aren't mighty yourself...

Europe's leaders (if you can call them so), in their eagerness to be "good allies" by supporting the violation of international law in Gaza, have effectively signed their own continent's permission slip for future dismemberment. They've forgotten that principles aren't just moral luxuries - they're practical shields, and once broken for others, they no longer protect you either.

Their forgetting this is especially egregious given Europe's own history. Because we've we've seen this many times before and perhaps the most salient example is the response - or absence thereof - to Mussolini's Italy invading Ethiopia in 1935, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of Ethiopian deaths.

Despite Ethiopia being a member of the League of Nations, the UN-ancestor meant to prevent exactly such aggression, major powers chose to protect their fellow European power rather than uphold international law. With the consequences we all know about: the death of the League of Nations as a credible institution and the clear message to other European powers that hunting season on weaker nations and peoples was officially open. Within a few months afterwards, Hitler started remilitarizing the Rhineland.

The century of humiliation that Europe is walking into has a uniquely self-inflicted quality to it, stemming from its own moral corruption and strategic myopia. Unlike China, which at least could claim to have been blindsided by European imperialism, Europe is actively participating in dismantling the very legal protections that could shield it from stronger powers. Which means it won't even have the moral authority to protest.

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More from @RnaudBertrand

Nov 2
I suspect David is right here 👇 And if so it'd be the most ironic possible resolution for the Nexperia debacle.

What the White House factsheet (whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/20…) says about Nexperia is: "China will take appropriate measures to ensure the resumption of trade from Nexperia’s facilities in China, allowing production of critical legacy chips to flow to the rest of the world."

Not a word about the Netherlands or Europe, it says trade will resume FROM CHINA.

So it's entirely possible, even likely, that the deal is that Nexperia China, which effectively split from Nexperia Netherlands after the Dutch seized the company, will become the main contracting party.

Meaning the deal would effectively hand China full operational control of Nexperia's operations while leaving Europe with a hollowed-out shell company.

The theory makes sense: Nexperia China already handled 70% of the actual production for Nexperia overall. The main thing they were getting from Europe were the silicon wafers, which Europe has now stopped sending (reuters.com/world/europe/n…). But those are legacy chips products that Chinese foundries like SMIC and Hua Hong can also produce at scale so the European fabs weren't providing anything irreplaceable.

If this all gets verified, there are so many layers of irony here.

This whole debacle occurred because of the new "BIS 50% rule" introduced by the U.S. in late September that expanded US sanctions to any company that was at least 50% owned by entities on Washington's trade blacklist. Wingtech Technology, the Chinese owner of Nexperia, was added on the blacklist since last December and so Nexperia was going to get sanctioned by the U.S. too. Unless, that is, as the U.S. told the Dutch (ft.com/content/db0198…), they were to seize the company away from its Chinese owners, which is what prompted the Dutch to do exactly that simultaneously to the U.S. introducing the new "BIS 50% rule."

Since then, as part of the deal between Xi and Trump, the U.S. has agreed to suspend this "BIS 50% rule," thereby removing the whole rational the Dutch had to seize the company.

However, probably out of misplaced pride, or rather shame of looking like complete U.S. vassals, the Dutch are ridiculously claiming their seizing the company was unrelated with the "BIS 50% rule" but rather had to do with "mismanagement" by the Chinese CEO of the business who, according to them, was seeking to move Nexperia's manufacturing operations to China and transfer technological knowledge to its Chinese parent company.

Which is laughable: since when does a government seize an entire company because it wants to produce in China, all the more a company that was already producing 70% of its output in China and had Chinese ownership for years? Apparently the Dutch suddenly discovered in September 2025 - coincidentally within 24 hours after the U.S. introduced its "BIS 50% rule" - that a manufacturing footprint established years earlier now posed an urgent national security threat.

If this resolution gets confirmed it's ironies upon ironies:
- Washington created the BIS 50% rule to decouple Chinese firms from Western supply chains. In practice, it may have just decoupled from the Dutch middleman while leaving China with more control
- The Dutch justified their action by claiming it was done to prevent Nexperia moving operations to China and the result of their action seems to have caused this exact outcome
- Trump suspended the BIS 50% rule after having pressured the Dutch to act on it, leaving them holding the bag for a decision made to satisfy American strategic interests that America itself has now walked back
- Europe positioned itself as defending its technological sovereignty and it looks like they'll end up losing both the company and its credibility as a sovereign actor, all the more since the resolution was negotiated between Trump and Xi in South Korea with Europe completely absent from the table
Boom: this just got essentially confirmed by Nexperia China in a statement Image
This is a fascinating technical analysis that I translate from Chinese, and I give my take at the end (source 👇 x.com/FrankyChen19/s…):

"Here's something that might surprise many: Wingtech's Shanghai fab (Dingtai Jiangxin), which can replace the production capacity of Nexperia's Hamburg facility, came online just before this crisis occurred!

One important clarification upfront: Dingtai Jiangxin isn't owned by Wingtech Technology itself, but by Wingtech's controlling shareholder (the "Wentianxia Group"). This makes it a related party under common control. The reality is that Chinese fabs including SMIC and Hua Hong were already capable of replacing a substantial portion of Hamburg's capacity.

For Wingtech's own facilities to fully replace Hamburg will require a "short-term partial transition + long-term complete substitution" process—relying primarily on domestic wafer manufacturing (especially the Shanghai Dingtai Jiangxin facility). This needs time to optimize technical compatibility, scale up production, and mature automotive certifications. However, the capability to fully replace Hamburg's capacity is already planned out.

Core Replacement Capability
China's domestic wafer manufacturing ecosystem is now in place. Through a combination of proprietary facilities and partnerships, Wingtech has built manufacturing capacity covering mature process nodes and automotive-grade applications that directly matches Hamburg's core products:

1. The Centerpiece: Dingtai Jiangxin Shanghai Fab
This is the key replacement for Hamburg. Built by Wingtech's controlling shareholder, it exclusively serves Wingtech/Nexperia's semiconductor business needs, with technology and capacity planning closely aligned with Hamburg's core products:

1.1 Technology match: Hamburg focuses on 8-inch/12-inch power devices (MOSFETs, IGBTs) using mature 130-180nm processes. Dingtai Jiangxin covers 110-180nm nodes, enabling direct migration of similar products. It produces key components including Trench MOSFETs, Super Junction devices, and IGBTs, with voltage coverage spanning 12V to 1700V across low, medium, and high voltage ranges. Product overlap with Hamburg exceeds 70%.

1.2 Rapid capacity ramp: Phase 1 capacity is planned at 45,000 wafers/month, with 30,000 wafers/month already achieved in H2 2025 and full capacity expected by year-end. After Phases 2 and 3, final capacity will reach 100,000 wafers/month. At full production, this can cover 45% of Hamburg's global capacity (Hamburg's annual capacity equals roughly 1.3 million 8-inch wafers; Dingtai Jiangxin's full capacity of 1.2 million 12-inch wafers per year offers superior equivalent capacity after conversion).

1.3 Automotive certification breakthrough: Dingtai Jiangxin is built to top international automotive standards. Its next-generation MOSFET products have already entered supply chains of leading Chinese EV manufacturers, and Wingtech's automotive-grade SiC MOSFETs and GaN FETs have passed certifications from Tesla, BYD, and other major customers—providing continuity with Hamburg's automotive qualifications.

2. Supply Chain Coordination: Domestic Fab Network
Beyond its own facilities, Wingtech has established long-term partnerships with Chinese foundries including SMIC and Hua Hong. By end of 2025, domestic wafer procurement can increase to 65%, absorbing orders for general-purpose power devices from Hamburg's mature 8-inch processes and alleviating short-term capacity gaps. Meanwhile, Nexperia's Dongguan facility has achieved 90% domestic production capacity, with core technologies transferred to China, providing the process integration foundation for "domestic wafer manufacturing + assembly/testing integration.

3. Technology Reserve: Next-Generation Semiconductors
While Hamburg focuses mainly on silicon-based power devices, Wingtech has proactively deployed GaN, SiC, and other third-generation semiconductor technologies, creating dual support of "mature process replacement + advanced technology upgrade": In 2024, Nexperia China commissioned production lines for high-voltage GaN transistors and SiC diodes. In 2025, the 8-inch SiC MOSFET production line began operations. The performance of its automotive-grade 1200V SiC MOSFETs exceeds comparable market products, enabling "generational replacement" of Hamburg's silicon-based products in high-end applications like EVs and industrial power supplies."

My take: this all goes to show the extent to which the Chinese were fully prepared for the Dutch's move. Wingtech had built a parallel supply chain ready to takeover: Dingtai Jiangxin (the Shanghai fab) came online just before the seizure with capacity to replace the European operations, automotive certifications were secured from major customers (like Tesla and BYD) and SMIC and Hua Hong partnerships positioned to absorb 65% of wafer procurement.

Meaning that when the Dutch seized Nexperia thinking they were protecting a critical European asset, they actually triggered the activation of a pre-positioned Chinese replacement system that makes the European operations obsolete.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 18
Extraordinary words by Nvidia's CEO.

In polite terms, he effectively says that the chips export controls on China were one of the most self-destructive decisions ever taken by the US government: x.com/Yuchenj_UW/sta…

He says it caused Nvidia to go "from 95% market share to 0%" in China, and that he "cannot imagine any policymaker thinking that’s a good idea. That whatever policy we implemented caused America to lose one of the largest markets in the world to 0%.”

In a separate interview (linked below) he effectively says that might have lost the US the AI race. Because, as he puts it, "winning" the AI race means that "80% of the world uses the American tech stack" and that, given that China on its own is "50% of AI research" and "30% of the technology market", then them not using the American tech stack means that by definition America is "forfeiting and conceding" the AI race.

In that separate interview he also completely ridicules the narrative - used by the US to justify the export controls - that they were to prevent "dual use" of advanced Western chips for military purposes by China, saying that "no government, surely the Chinese government, is going to be building their defense on Western technology nor does the Pentagon use Chinese chips to build our national security."

So to sum up: in a foolish attempt to slow China's AI development, not only did the US lose its largest market, they may have lost the AI race itself.
The other interview 👇
Read 4 tweets
Oct 10
She supports the U.S. waging war against her own country for regime change (theguardian.com/world/2019/may…).

The Nobel "Peace" Prize, being its usual mockery of itself. Basically a reward for the most rabid defendents of a western liberal order, "peace" being a distant afterthought. x.com/NobelPrize/sta…
The ideological aspect is crystal clear, see 👇 "Democracy is a precondition for lasting peace"

By which they mean liberal democracy, of course. And it couldn't be more false: the countries that have waged the most wars, by far, over the past few decades were liberal democracies (the US first and foremost).
Unsurprisingly, she is beloved by the U.S., here's a Trump post from this January 👇 where he praises her effusively. Image
Read 6 tweets
Sep 29
Ok, I looked into this because sometimes claims that "China invents Y" can be somewhat exaggerated. But this is real, and completely insane.

This technology called "Bone 02" (inspired by the well-known "502 glue" in China) has been developed for the past 9 years by a team of orthopedic surgeons in Zhejiang province. The team leads are Professor Fan Shunwu (范顺武, Director of the Orthopedics Department at Zhejiang University) and Lin Xianfeng (researchgate.net/profile/Xianfe…).

It's inspired by oysters because the researchers noticed their extraordinary ability to firmly attach themselves in harsh underwater environment by secreting a special adhesive known as bio-cement, which creates a strong chemical interaction with surfaces and hardens quickly.

The properties of the glue are almost miraculous (sources: news.cn/20250910/1df93… and news.ifeng.com/c/8mVMq4PBdmJ):
- Nearly instant adhesion in blood-soaked wet physiological environments (it just takes 2-3 minutes)
- Extremely strong adhesive properties (bonding tensile force of over 400 pounds - over 181 kg)
- Complete biodegradability that naturally absorbs after about 6 months as the bone heals (no need for secondary surgery previously required in conventional treatments)
- Vast reduction of infection risks related to the traditional metal plates and screws normally needed for bone surgery
- Minimally invasive and rapid surgery since you just need a small opening large enough to apply the glue (as opposed to a complex surgery attaching metal fixations)

This glue could be especially useful for fractures with small bone fragments which are very difficult to fix with metal plates and screws.

The glue has already undergone a proper "prospective, multicenter, blinded, randomized, parallel-controlled, non-inferiority clinical trial" with over 150 patients (c.m.163.com/news/a/K95S9C0…). They've announced positive results - the glue "achieved seamless bonding of all fracture fragments" - and will soon publish the peer-reviewed paper in an orthopedics journal detailing full trial data.

They've launched a company for the product called 源囊生物 (Yuannang Bio) which just raised 2 weeks ago RMB100 million in Series A financing (bydrug.pharmcube.com/news/detail/ef…).
😅 x.com/LaowaiLaogai/s…

They could also do:
- "Yes, China's bone glue works, but at what cost?" (a classic)
- "China's bone glue is part of its biological warfare on the West"
- "Congress demands investigation into 'Dual-Use' nature of Chinese oyster technology"
- "Did China just weaponize oysters?"
- "Oysters are a Western mollusk: experts say China's bone glue violates the Convention on the Law of the Sea"
- "Oysters evolved in Europe 60 million years ago -here's how China stole their essence"
Pretty good too 👇😅

Or simply "China's bone glue: a sign of looming war with Taiwan" 😅
Read 4 tweets
Sep 28
The Guardian isn't even trying anymore, just going for basic "darkness v light" propaganda, including the holy halo around the head of the pro-EU politician 😅

The story (theguardian.com/world/2025/sep…) focuses entirely on supposed "Kremlin interference" but doesn't as much as mention that:
- a) the current pro-EU government just barred two pro-Russian political parties just 2 days before the elections (and one day before this article was written)
- b) that Moldova literally has its elections supervised by the EU on the ground, including (according to Kaja Kallas: x.com/RnaudBertrand/…) a "specialist team... to address illicit financing around the elections" and "a hybrid rapid response team [fighting] against the foreign interference"

So the side of the "light" is literally banning opposition parties at the last minute, and having foreign teams actively helping them shape electoral outcomes on the ground.

And they make the story all about "Russian interference". This isn't even remotely journalism, this is just stenographing for one side.Image
And then there's this 👇 Only 2 polling stations opened in the whole of Russia for Moldovans who live there to vote, vs 301 in the EU
Read 4 tweets
Jul 13
That's probably one of least known yet coolest facts about China: in almost all large cities (that I've seen) people swim or fish in the rivers.

This is Liangma river in Beijing 👇
Other example (my video) in Shenyang 👇
Paddling in the middle of Chongqing (I took this video in October last year)
Read 4 tweets

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