Arnaud Bertrand Profile picture
Jan 8 1 tweets 3 min read Read on X
If you weren't yet convinced that Europe is stepping into its century of humiliation, that ought to do it x.com/BehizyTweets/s…

Trump says that the US need Greenland "for national security purposes" and "for the free world", and claims that "people really don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to it" (which is 100% false).

Would he ever dare say this with regards to Chinese or Russian territory? Not in a million years. But he sees that not only is Europe weak but also in the absolutely disastrous strategic situation where it is "defended" by him! Which means that Europe is effectively trapped in a mob-style protection racket and is about to relearn the old geopolitical adage (attributed to Thucydides): "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must".

So many ironies here of course, starting with Trump's claim about protecting the "free world" through territorial annexation.

Second irony is that Europe's hysterical fixation on Russian imperialism - more phantom than reality given Russia's demonstrated capabilities - has led it to sleepwalk into the clutches of an actual empire that now casually discusses carving it up.

Last but not least, probably the bigger irony is that no-one in the whole world is going to care because of Europe's double-standards and hypocrisy in its own dealings with the rest of the world, and Gaza in particular. Since the very beginning of Gaza (and again yesterday: x.com/RnaudBertrand/…) I wrote that the bigger meaning of Europe's response would be the death of any pretense to an global order based on international law.

And that's exactly where we are. By choosing to openly abandon even the appearance of principles Europe has essentially announced it was ok with "might makes right". A monumentally stupid thing to do when you aren't mighty yourself...

Europe's leaders (if you can call them so), in their eagerness to be "good allies" by supporting the violation of international law in Gaza, have effectively signed their own continent's permission slip for future dismemberment. They've forgotten that principles aren't just moral luxuries - they're practical shields, and once broken for others, they no longer protect you either.

Their forgetting this is especially egregious given Europe's own history. Because we've we've seen this many times before and perhaps the most salient example is the response - or absence thereof - to Mussolini's Italy invading Ethiopia in 1935, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of Ethiopian deaths.

Despite Ethiopia being a member of the League of Nations, the UN-ancestor meant to prevent exactly such aggression, major powers chose to protect their fellow European power rather than uphold international law. With the consequences we all know about: the death of the League of Nations as a credible institution and the clear message to other European powers that hunting season on weaker nations and peoples was officially open. Within a few months afterwards, Hitler started remilitarizing the Rhineland.

The century of humiliation that Europe is walking into has a uniquely self-inflicted quality to it, stemming from its own moral corruption and strategic myopia. Unlike China, which at least could claim to have been blindsided by European imperialism, Europe is actively participating in dismantling the very legal protections that could shield it from stronger powers. Which means it won't even have the moral authority to protest.

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More from @RnaudBertrand

Dec 27, 2024
This 👇 is arguably an even bigger Sputnik moment for China than the 6th generation fighter jet: a Chinese AI Model called DeepSeek v3 rivals - and often surpasses - the latest ChatGPT and Claude models in pretty much all respects for a tiny fraction of the training cost (only $5.5m), and it's open sourced (meaning anyone can use, modify, and improve it).

The fact that it's so cheap to train is particularly important as it completely changes the game of who can participate in advanced AI development. Up until now, the assumption was that you needed hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars to train such a model, yet DeepSeek did it with just $5.5m, a sum of money accessible to just about any startup anywhere. Concretely, this means that DeepSeek has just proven that serious AI development is not limited to tech giants.

And their model is not only cheap to train, it's also extremely efficient to run. They use an architecture called Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) where, while their full model has 671 billion parameters (which is huge), it only uses 37 billion at a time. To compare, Meta has 405 billion parameters in their latest Llama3.1 model and uses all 405 billion at a time. DeepSeek V3 is more than 10 times more efficient, yet performs better than Llama3.1 at almost all benchmarks (English, Math, Coding, etc.).

DeepSeek V3's performance at key benchmarks is impressive across the board:
- Crushes advanced math problems (90.2% on MATH-500, vs 78.3% for Claude-3.5-Sonnet and 74.6% for GPT-4o)
- Excels at coding (82.6% on HumanEval, vs 81.7% for Claude-3.5-Sonnet and 80.5% for GPT-4o)
- Can process huge amounts of text at once (128K tokens, roughly equivalent to 100,000 words in English)
- Processes text at 60 tokens per second, about twice faster than GPT-4o

And the craziest part is that it's open-source, meaning that:
- Anyone can download and study the code
- Developers can modify and improve it
- Companies can integrate it into their products without paying API fees
- The entire AI community can learn from it

Lastly, this obviously comes during an interesting context in China-US relations where the US is doing its utmost to prevent China from progressing technologically, especially in AI. As such, this is an absolutely beautiful response by China: "despite all your restrictions, we just built a world-class AI model for 1% of your cost, made it more efficient than anything you have, and open-sourced it for the whole world to use."

It's also a triumph of brains over money and raw power: with its restrictions the US placed China in a situation where it had to use resources more intelligently. As the saying goes "necessity is the mother of inventions"... And here we now are: China may have just changed the rules of the game forever, democratizing the very technology the US tried to restrict and proving, once more, that human ingenuity always finds a way.
Interesting background on the company behind the model 👇
Read 4 tweets
Dec 17, 2024
This 👇 potentially changes everything, it looks like Trump envisions a U.S.-China G2.

He says that "China and the United States can together solve all the problems in the world".
x.com/kyleichan/stat…

From the point of view of a citizen of the Earth, I'm all for an improved relationship between the U.S. and China. And so far, despite some of his hawkish appointments, all of the statements by Trump himself point to that. Actions must follow of course, which is anything but a given: U.S. rhetoric often bears little correlation to their actions...

From the point of view of a European though, a US-China G2 would be a strategic disaster of the highest order. In fact it's long been something that many European strategic thinkers have warned about: if a US-China G2 materializes without Europe at the table, it will be on the menu.

A U.S.-China G2 would effectively mark an end to the undeclared world war we've been witnessing these past few years and declare the U.S. and China to be the 2 winners, setting the new rules of the game together the way the winners of WW2 did. Europe had a De Gaulle and a Churchill back then to defend its interests, there's virtually no-one today...

Which is why I've long said it was so strategically dumb for Europe to blindly follow the U.S. in its hostile strategy against China as one day (which looks like it may be coming soon) the U.S. would be bound to flip its position, leaving Europe exposed and with a damaged relationship with China. The smarter approach would have been to maintain an equally balanced relationships with both powers while building up European strategic autonomy. Instead of following Washington's lead on chip restrictions, decoupling initiatives, and confrontational rhetoric, Europe could have carved out its own path...

The question now is whether Europe can still recover its strategic position. And unfortunately the challenge appears nearly insurmountable: years of strategic complacency have left Europe vulnerable at precisely the moment when strength and independence are most crucial, with a complete absence of leaders of the caliber needed to navigate such tricky waters...
Love how this is already being mischaracterized by "China watchers" as Trump playing into Beijing's hands: the "G2 that Xi Jinping has hoped for".
x.com/BonnieGlaser/s…

When actually the concept of a G2 originates from the very heart of the U.S. establishment, from people like Fred Bergsten, Zbigniew Brzezinski and Kissinger: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_of_…

And China has actually historically been very critical of it, even rejecting the very concept. Here's for instance what Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told Barack Obama when the idea was floated during his administration (gov.cn/ldhd/2009-11/1…): "The main reasons we don't agree with the concept of a 'G2' are: First, China is a developing country with a large population, and we remain clear-headed about the long road ahead to build a modernized nation; Second, China pursues an independent and autonomous peaceful foreign policy and does not ally with any country or group of countries; Third, China maintains that world affairs should be decided jointly by all countries, not dictated by one or two countries." (original Chinese: 我们不赞成有关"两国集团"提法的主要原因是:第一,中国是一个人口众多的发展中国家,要建成一个现代化国家还有很长的路要走,对此我们始终保持清醒;第二,中国奉行独立自主的和平外交政策,不与任何国家或国家集团结盟;第三,中国主张世界上的事情应该由各国共同决定,不能由一两个国家说了算)

And again now we have the proposal coming from the U.S., not China, and we can quite safely assume it will likely again face quite a lot of opposition from China.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 3, 2024
This is crazy... So let me get this right:
- Yoon lost recent parliamentary elections
- He's invoking national security to justify emergency powers
- He's labeling the opposition as North Korean sympathizers
- He is strongly aligned with US policy (even strengthening ties with Japan, which is deeply unpopular with the population)

This sounds like a bad remake of the classic transitions to right-wing military dictatorship we saw in so many US vassals during the cold war.

Hopefully South Korea will be strong enough to prevent history from repeating itself...
Couldn't be more appallingly undemocratic: martial law can be lifted by a vote in parliament but he's blocking access to it 👇
Yoon's martial law declaration. Really reads like the ravings of the very worst military dictators, truly crazy stuff!
Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 29, 2024
Goodbye Uniqlo China business (22% of their revenue!) 👋

It's a virtual certainty that Chinese consumers will stop shopping at Uniqlo after this. A *Japanese* company that publicly chooses to align with the West's Uyghur narrative against China (which not a single Chinese believes in, even those most critical of the government): it's the closest you can get to corporate suicide in China.

Puzzling why they'd do that.
The last company that said it'd stop using Xinjiang cotton was H&M. Their sales in China immediately decreased by 41% ()bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
To be clear the choice made by Uniqlo is not about whether to use Xinjiang cotton or not: it's about communicating about it. x.com/GearoidReidy/s…

Maybe they never even used Xinjiang cotton and that's their choice. But given how sensitive an issue this is in China, they'd also chosen for years to not communicate on this issue because it was obvious that if they did it'd instrumentalized by Western media in headlines just like the BBC article...

I don't why they suddenly decided to change position and and start communicating on this, but they did and it did generate headlines. That's the issue...
Read 5 tweets
Nov 15, 2024
Absolutely perfect illustration of what we enable with the way the media and the Western political class framed what happened in Amsterdam.

There was a football match between Israel and France yesterday and this 👇 happened at the beginning of the match: a horde of Israeli supporters openly lynched some French supporters in the stands.

Macron himself was in attendance at the match to show his commitment to "fighting antisemitism" after Amsterdam... He made no public comment that I know of on these French supporters getting lynched in front of his eyes. And the police made no reported arrests.

Had the reverse been the case, had this been some Israeli supporters getting lynched by a horde of French supporters, you can absolutely bet 100% that he (and all the French media) would have made a huge deal out of it.

You cannot overstate the absurdism of it: because we've so gaslighted ourselves around "antisemitism" and so distorted the meaning of it, Western countries would literally rather let our their own citizens get lynched on their own soil - in front of the president's eyes (!) - than face accusations being "antisemitic" in their own definition of the term.
French TV interviewed after the match an Israel supporter (wearing an IDF t-shirt) who participated in the lynching, who commented that "the security [in the stadium] was magnificent. I'll even say even too much... We had a small problem in the block K, directly it was settled, the police came and directly they solved the problem".

No comment...
Another video where French fans explain to the police, with video for proof, that the Israel supporters started the fight and that they arrested the French victims.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9, 2024
This is hugely important and no-one is paying attention.

Philippines President Marcos Jr. just signed 2 new bills (the "Maritime Zones Act" and the "Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act"), backed by the U.S. State Department (via a press release by the infamous Matthew Miller: state.gov/on-the-philipp…), that claim to implement "international law" but actually are a direct violation of international law in that they attempt to legitimize expansionist claims at the expense of virtually all its neighbors.

Let me explain 🧵Image
Image
First, some context.

The Philippines exist as an independent country since 1946 when they gained their independence from the United States. They had never existed as a country before.

The establishment of the Philippines was officialized by the Treaty of Manilla.
Crucially, the Treaty of Manilla also defined Filipino territory as based on the earlier Treaty of Paris, when Spain ceded the Philippines to the US at the end of the Spanish-American War of 1898.

You can see these boundaries as defined in the treaty of Paris illustrated here 👇 Image
Read 30 tweets

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