Arnaud Bertrand Profile picture
Jan 8, 2025 1 tweets 3 min read Read on X
If you weren't yet convinced that Europe is stepping into its century of humiliation, that ought to do it x.com/BehizyTweets/s…

Trump says that the US need Greenland "for national security purposes" and "for the free world", and claims that "people really don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to it" (which is 100% false).

Would he ever dare say this with regards to Chinese or Russian territory? Not in a million years. But he sees that not only is Europe weak but also in the absolutely disastrous strategic situation where it is "defended" by him! Which means that Europe is effectively trapped in a mob-style protection racket and is about to relearn the old geopolitical adage (attributed to Thucydides): "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must".

So many ironies here of course, starting with Trump's claim about protecting the "free world" through territorial annexation.

Second irony is that Europe's hysterical fixation on Russian imperialism - more phantom than reality given Russia's demonstrated capabilities - has led it to sleepwalk into the clutches of an actual empire that now casually discusses carving it up.

Last but not least, probably the bigger irony is that no-one in the whole world is going to care because of Europe's double-standards and hypocrisy in its own dealings with the rest of the world, and Gaza in particular. Since the very beginning of Gaza (and again yesterday: x.com/RnaudBertrand/…) I wrote that the bigger meaning of Europe's response would be the death of any pretense to an global order based on international law.

And that's exactly where we are. By choosing to openly abandon even the appearance of principles Europe has essentially announced it was ok with "might makes right". A monumentally stupid thing to do when you aren't mighty yourself...

Europe's leaders (if you can call them so), in their eagerness to be "good allies" by supporting the violation of international law in Gaza, have effectively signed their own continent's permission slip for future dismemberment. They've forgotten that principles aren't just moral luxuries - they're practical shields, and once broken for others, they no longer protect you either.

Their forgetting this is especially egregious given Europe's own history. Because we've we've seen this many times before and perhaps the most salient example is the response - or absence thereof - to Mussolini's Italy invading Ethiopia in 1935, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of Ethiopian deaths.

Despite Ethiopia being a member of the League of Nations, the UN-ancestor meant to prevent exactly such aggression, major powers chose to protect their fellow European power rather than uphold international law. With the consequences we all know about: the death of the League of Nations as a credible institution and the clear message to other European powers that hunting season on weaker nations and peoples was officially open. Within a few months afterwards, Hitler started remilitarizing the Rhineland.

The century of humiliation that Europe is walking into has a uniquely self-inflicted quality to it, stemming from its own moral corruption and strategic myopia. Unlike China, which at least could claim to have been blindsided by European imperialism, Europe is actively participating in dismantling the very legal protections that could shield it from stronger powers. Which means it won't even have the moral authority to protest.

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More from @RnaudBertrand

May 10
Every year, this has to be the one report I look forward to the most: the Democracy Perception Index, compiled by the Alliance of Democracies Foundation (in partnership with Nita Data).

In fact, my yearly thread on the report is apparently such a tradition that, this year, its lead researcher personally sent me the report with this message: "every year, I look forward to your thread about it!". That's how you start wondering whether you tweet too much 😅

Why do I like this report so much? A few reasons:

1) The Alliance of Democracies Foundation, the organization behind the report, cannot even remotely be suspected of being some sort of anti-West outlet: it was started by an ex-NATO Secretary General (Anders Fogh Rasmussen) and its stated purpose is "to unite world democracies"

2) It's surprisingly honest and the methodology is actually democratic. Unlike other reports on democracy the scoring isn't done by the report's authors (like the report by Freedom House or The Economist's "Democracy Index"). It simply asks people what they think and, when it comes to democracy, that's kind of the point 🤷‍♂️

3) I love the expression "perception is reality" because, like it or not, what people believe about their system is what determines its legitimacy. A democracy that nobody actually experiences as one can't credibly claim to be one. And conversely, a so-called "autocracy" that its people overwhelmingly believe is actually a democracy might... actually be a democracy.

Anyhow, this year's edition did not disappoint. The data is absolutely fascinating and frankly, a little terrifying. So here you go: my thread on the 2026 Democracy Perception Index 🧵Image
Let's start with what's always the highlight of the report: the actual ranking of countries based on democracy perception by their own people.

Which, this year, as a French man, is utterly depressing: France is now, according to the French people themselves, one of the least democratic countries in the world, alongside countries like Kazakhstan, Yemen or Zimbabwe. It's insane but sadly unsurprising given the fact that Macron made a complete mockery of the results of the previous elections, and altogether only has utter contempt for his people.

Also fascinating, like every single year, is the fact that China is - according to the Chinese people themselves - one of the most democratic countries in the world. According to the ranking, the world's most democratic countries are: Scandinavian countries, Switzerland, Ghana, Sri Lanka, India and... China!

Every year I get the same argument back so let me preempt it: no it's not because the Chinese people would be "afraid" to express their opinion.

If that were the case you'd see the same dynamic in other presumed "authoritarian" countries. But Russia scores -21, Belarus -9, Kazakhstan -31. If "fear of the regime" explained China's +14, why aren't Russians and Belarusians equally "afraid"?

Professor Jason Hickel - an economic anthropologist - also wrote a fascinating article on exactly this topic titled "Support for government in China: is the data accurate?" (open.substack.com/pub/jasonhicke…) in which he systematically dismantles the "fear bias" argument by examining studies that used anonymized and implicit methodologies. The verdict: across every methodology tested, Chinese people mean what they say.

So, for better or worse, as far as people's perceptions are concerned, we now live in a world where China is one of the most democratic countries in the world and France one of the least.

How does the US fare? Not great, far below China (although better than France): its ranking is "neutral" meaning there's roughly an equal amount of U.S. citizens who think they're a democracy as those who don't.

For the self-proclaimed "leader of the free world," that's not exactly a ringing endorsement...Image
Image
Another finding of the report that I found fascinating this year: there's now a higher perception of freedom of speech in China than in the immense majority of Western countries, including in the United States.

Meaning that when you ask the Chinese people, a higher proportion of them feel they "can criticize the government without consequences" than in the US.

I'm personally not surprised about this at all. I posted many times about the different initiatives taken by the Chinese government to encourage feedback and criticism, including the 12345 hotline, a 24/7 phone number you can call anywhere in China if you have any complaint that's related to the government (and which I myself called a few times).

And anyone familiar with China will tell you (and this is one way the Chinese are actually spiritually quite similar to the French), Chinese people LOVE to complain, and are definitely not shy about it. Speak about government policies to anyone in China and get ready for an hours-long dizzying discussion about the myriads of ways in which China does NOT work.

The notion that Chinese people can't complain is something only someone who's never shared a dinner table with a Chinese family could possibly believe...

AND, most importantly, as this report's results indicate, the Chinese government - unlike many Western governments - actively listens to and acts upon people's feedback (a striking example I stumbled upon just today: x.com/i/status/20531…). Which - last I checked - is supposed to be what democracy is all about: having your policies guided by the will of the people.

What's the freaking point of being allowed to complain or expose whatever government failure if nothing changes? 🤷‍♂️ That's not democracy, it's just theater.Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 24
Wow, this is huge, after months of speculation and the U.S. running a massive pre-emptive discreditation campaign (x.com/RnaudBertrand/…), DeepSeek-V4 is finally out!

I haven't studied it in depth but here are the most striking aspects as far as I can tell:

- Fully open sourced with open weights (available for download on huggingface: huggingface.co/deepseek-ai)

- Zero CUDA dependency anywhere in its stack, which is probably the biggest deal of all. For those who don't know, CUDA is Nvidia's software layer - the foundation nearly every frontier AI model in the world is built on. Except, as of today, DeepSeek V4, which can run entirely on Huawei Ascend chips via Huawei's CANN framework (finance.yahoo.com/sectors/techno…). Very concretely it means that China now not only has its own frontier AI models, but its own domestic AI stack, top to bottom.

- The prices are insanely low. V4-Pro is roughly 3x cheaper than GPT-5.5 on input and 8.6x cheaper on output. And V4-Flash is an order of magnitude cheaper still, at $0.14/$0.28 per million tokens vs OpenAI's $5/$30 - so 30-100x cheaper than GPT-5.5 (!). And remember, these are the prices DeepSeek charges on its own API - anyone can download the weights and run them for "free" on their own server.

- It is at or near the frontier on most benchmarks that matter. V4-Pro-Max matches or beats GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus 4.6 on competitive programming (Codeforces rating 3206), coding (LiveCodeBench 93.5), and math (HMMT 95.2, IMO AnswerBench 89.8). It trails the very newest GPT-5.5 and Opus 4.7 on a handful of the hardest agentic and knowledge benchmarks, but it's in the same league.

In effect the value proposition is: "Same league as frontier US AI, at a fraction of the price, open-source and freely modifiable, and hardware-agnostic - you can run it on whatever infrastructure you choose."

Which is insanely good. I now understand the need for a preemptive discreditation campaign: they had every reason to be worried. For the vast majority of use cases, you'd have to be a literal idiot to keep paying OpenAI or Anthropic's prices when this exists.
This 👇 is indeed interesting. It means:
a) V4-Pro is genuinely being served on Huawei chips (since limited by Huawei 950 supernode availability)
b) they expect far bigger compute scale in H2 2026, and that API prices will drop significantly further
Read 8 tweets
Apr 11
Wow, that's extremely rare for a U.S. treaty ally.

South Korea's president, addressing Israel: "It’s disappointing that you don’t even once reflect on the criticisms from people around the world who are suffering and struggling due to your relentless anti-human rights and anti-international law actions."

He said this after posting this yesterday (x.com/Jaemyung_Lee/s…), a video of IDF soldiers throwing a young Palestinian off a rooftop and commenting that "there is no difference between this and the Japanese wartime sexual slavery issue we raise, the massacre of Jews, or wartime killings."

Israel's Foreign Ministry responded that his post was "unacceptable" but President Lee obviously - and courageously - chose to double down 👇

Also probably says a lot about where U.S.-South Korea relations are at right now.
He's backed by other senior South Korean political figures, like Choo Mi-ae (the first female leader of South Korea's Democratic Party) 👇
Or Park Hong-geun, Minister of Planning and Budget, who calls on Israel to "break free from the chain of victimhood becoming perpetration" 👇
Read 4 tweets
Apr 6
So, if I got that right, here's the narrative:

- A US F-15E fighter jet got shot down over Iran, despite Trump saying 2 days beforehand in his nationwide address that Iran has "no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated." (apnews.com/article/donald…)

- The plane's weapons systems officer - a "highly respected Colonel," according to Trump - ejected from the plane and got "seriously wounded" (still according to Trump: truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru…)

- He still managed to "hike up a 7,000-foot [2.1km] mountain ridgeline and hide in a crevice" in the Zagros Mountains, despite his wounds (time.com/article/2026/0…)

- U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones started killing all "Iranian military-aged males believed to be a threat who got within three kilometers of [the American's location]" (x.com/ByChrisGordon/…)

- To retrieve him the U.S. managed to seize an "abandoned airport," 200 miles deep inside Iran, near Isfahan (bbc.com/news/articles/…), which happens to be where Iran's largest atomic scientific center is located (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isfahan_N…)

- They landed two MC-130 military transport planes in that airport (theaviationist.com/2026/04/05/u-s…) in an operation involving "hundreds of special forces troops and military personnel" (time.com/article/2026/0…)

- Both MC-130 planes got "stuck in the sand" and the U.S. destroyed them themselves "to prevent them from falling into Iranian hands" (theaviationist.com/2026/04/05/u-s…)

- They deployed "three new aircraft to extract all the U.S. personnel" on the ground (theaviationist.com/2026/04/05/u-s…)

- There are videos circulating online of "heavy clashes" with presumably Iranian missiles raining down in Kohgiluyeh County, in the Zagros Mountains during that night (x.com/Afshin_Ismaeli…)

- Iran sent pictures of the aftermath at the "abandoned airport" and it's a sight of utter destruction, with US plane and MH-6 helicopter parts scattered all over the ground, still smoking (turkiyetoday.com/region/wreckag…). Iran claims they are the ones who in fact destroyed all the aircraft.

- Meanwhile a second U.S. plane, an A-10 Warthog, also crashed on Friday near the Strait of Hormuz according to two U.S. officials speaking to the NYT (nytimes.com/live/2026/04/0…). In that instance too the lone pilot was apparently "safely rescued."

- In all this, after the multiple planes and helicopters destroyed or shot down, the documented heavy clashes, the "hundreds of special forces troops and military personnel" operating deep inside Iran, not a single US soldier was reported killed "or even wounded" (according to Trump: truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru…).

- And the 'highly respected Colonel' this was all for? No name. No photo. No interview. Nobody has spoken to him nor knows who he is.

So to sum up: anti-aircraft equipment that supposedly didn't exist shot down an F-15 (and, apparently, an A-10 Warthog the same day). A seriously wounded man climbed a 2.1km mountain. The US seized an airfield 200 miles inside a country it's at war with, next to one of its most strategic nuclear sites, and deployed hundreds of troops all apparently unimpeded. Lost two planes to "sand" and destroyed their own helicopters. Videos show heavy clashes, missiles raining down - but not a single person got "even wounded". And the man at the center of it all? Nobody knows who he is, completely anonymous, zero pictures, but Trump says he is "SAFE and SOUND." And so is the rescued A-10 Warthog pilot, who also remains anonymous.

Trump concludes this all proves the US has "achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies" (truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru…), despite the whole episode only happening because Iran shot his planes out of the sky.

Basically, the only thing that's "overwhelming" here is the audacity of the storytelling...
Iran's count is that the US lost 12 aircraft in the rescue operation (on top of course of the downed F-15 and A-10 Warthog) 👇

Which, if accurate, would be a disaster of unprecedented proportions.
x.com/upholdreality/…

Heck, even the count semi-officially acknowledged by the US (5-6 aircraft destroyed: 2 MC-130Js, 1-2 Little Birds, F-15E, A-10) is remarkably disastrous for what's being sold as a triumph.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 23
The ultimate proof that Iran has, in fact, escalation dominance here.

Iran already said "there has been no direct or indirect contact" with Trump (). He basically chickened out after Iran's threats on desalination.

Incredibly, Iran took on the US symmetrically and won.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/20…
By the way, the fact that everyone's first instinct, including in the US, is to automatically assume Trump is lying and to wait for Iran's statement to understand what's going on is immensely telling in and of itself.
Trump is now speaking about sharing power with the Ayatollah 😅
Read 6 tweets
Mar 19
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if infrastructure like this 👇 gets blown up, as of this moment it will take at least a decade to recover from this war - and the truth is that the world's energy picture is probably changed forever.

This single facility 👇produced roughly 20% of global LNG supply (aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18…) and, as of 2011, had taken $70 billion to build (energyintel.com/0000017b-a7be-…).

What makes this even worse is that Iran's strike on this was retaliation after Israel attacked their South Pars gas field which draws from the same natural gas reservoir, which is the world's largest by far (9,700 km² - about the size of Qatar itself).

Heck, on the list of the 25 largest natural gas fields (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n…) this single reservoir holds roughly 40% of their combined recoverable reserves - and is nearly 6 times bigger than the 2nd biggest field in the world. And, unlike many of the others on the list, it's only at 10% depletion (meaning 90% of the gas is still there).

Which means that, probably for many years, a huge share of the gas from the world's largest reservoir simply won't be extractable, as infrastructure on both sides - Qatar's and Iran's - has now been blown up.

From a global energy supply perspective, we're deep into worst-case scenario territory.
Even Trump realizes just how catastrophically bad this is 👇.

He fails to mention it's entirely caused by himself, though. A totally avoidable war he started.
The Israelis' reply: "Trump knew, we're joined at the hip in this" 👇
Read 8 tweets

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