Michael Weiss Profile picture
Jan 8 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
New: After an eighteen-month investigation, @InsiderEng has uncovered new evidence suggesting that Russia’s GRU paid tens of millions of dollars to the Taliban in Afghanistan to target American, coalition, and Afghan military forces. GRU Unit 29155 was behind this operation. We have unmasked the officers and their Afghan agents. theins.ru/en/politics/27…
The program, per four former Afghan intel (NDS) sources we queried, averaged $200,000 per killed American or coalition soldier. There were smaller allowances for killed Afghan troops. One former official estimated that Russia paid a total of approximately $30 million to the Taliban via the scheme.Image
We confirmed much of what the NDS told @InsiderEng using data exfiltrated from three different Unit 29155 operatives' email boxes. From there we assessed the travel patterns of the Afghan couriers/liaisons, matching their presence in Afghanistan with several noted Taliban attacks on U.S., NATO or Afghan targets.Image
The operation ran from 2015-2020, when it unraveled after the NDS rounded up over a dozen of the Afghan couriers working for Unit 29155. The head of the program was Lt. Gen. Ivan Kasianenko (left), a deputy commander of the unit who has worked under diplomatic cover as a military attaché in the Russian embassies in Tehran and Kabul. The main GRU liaison with the Taliban was Col. Alexey Arkhipov (right), who continues to negotiate with the Taliban on behalf of Moscow.Image
These men ran several networks, the most prolific of which operated in northern Afghanistan from a base in Kunduz and was headed by Rahmatullah Azizi, a longtime smuggler, whose recruits included his own family members. Here he is Azizi, at left, at a restaurant in Moscow just in from the Russian Defense Ministry.Image
Azizi isn't an ordinary Russian agent. He was given several fake passports, one printed in the same numerical sequence as those given to Unit 29155 poisoners of Sergei and Yulia Skripal. Thus, Russia's most notorious black ops team treats him as tantamount to a full-blown officer.
The NDS told us Azizi used a gem-trading business as his money-laundering front to move the Russian funds into Afghanistan. They were right. He set up a company, ARIGS, Ltd. in Russia in Sep. 2017. It was incorporated at Narodnogo Opolcheniya 34, just down the road from GRU headquarters. Here's one of Azizi's Facebook pages for the company:Image
One Unit 29155 operative, "Artem Rubin," whose real name is Artem Rubtsov, registered for a course dedicated to “the evaluation of rough diamonds” at the Moscow State University’s gemology institute. (Rubin is Russian for "ruby.") He listed ARIGS, Ltd. as his employer in his registration form. We also found that Rubin has traveled with other members of the Afghan network, including Ata Mohamad Amiri, the GRU’s liaison with the resistance movement in the Panjshir region of Afghanistan.Image
Arkhipov’s role as a GRU liaison with the Taliban was discovered in an unusual way. He makes a cameo appearance in a 2023 documentary, "Hollywoodgate," about the U.S. pullout from Afghanistan and the takeover by the Taliban of the Hollywood Gate Complex, an abandoned CIA base in Kabul. Clad in dark glasses, Arkhipov is featured as one of the many Russian dignitaries attending a 2022 military parade in 2022 in Tehran held to commemorate the first anniversary of the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul. youtu.be/Bma_jSTYMIU
The existence of a GRU program to bleed Americans in Afghanistan was first reported by the @nytimes, which couched it as "bounties." According to @douglaslondon5, former CIA head of CT for South Asia, the program was far more strategic and ambitious: to drive the U.S. out of Afghanistan and the rest of Central Asia.
We learned that Unit 29155 was using its forward operating base in Tajikistan, at Russia's largest military facility outside of Russian Federation Borders, the 201st Military Base in Dushanbe. This tracks with what Gen. John Nicholson, the commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, said in 2018 about Russian weapons flows to the Taliban emanating from Tajikistan.
The GRU has a long history of operating in Afghanistan, going back to the 1920s. And of course, the prospect of paying back the U.S. for what the CIA did to Soviet occupiers in the 1980s would hardly need selling to either the Kremlin or the Aquarium. We interviewed half a dozen former CIA officers for this story, all familiar with the Unit 29155 payments program, but not necessarily the data and identities we uncovered. The NDS didn't know the half of it either, our Afghan sources said.
Where is everyone now? Azizi's family was exfiltrated to different countries, including Russia and India. Some are now in Europe, posing as asylum seekers in Germany, per our partner @derspiegel. One tried to gain entry to Germany via the Polish border last spring.
One of the younger Azizi brothers, Hasibullah, remains in Moscow. Based on leaked telephone records, Hasibullah is actively working with members of Unit 29155 on new, as-yet-unknown missions. A recent attempt by @InsiderEng to obtain a transcript of his employment status from Russia’s abundant data market resulted in a flat refusal from one otherwise accommodating vendor: “This person works for the Presidential Administration and his data is off limits.”

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More from @michaeldweiss

Apr 21
I've been emphasizing lately the unintended consequences of Trump's headlong embrace of Russia -- consequences not wholly undesirable for Russia. While it's wonderful for Moscow to see an American president so eager to realign with Russia's strategic interests, and so keen to denigrate and alienate American allies in that re-alignment, smarter figures in the Kremlin realize the hazards of such an embarrassment of riches. A helpful constant in this administration's rush to give Putin everything all at once is that the worst capitulationist ideas are being stress-tested in the media and in the GOP almost as soon as they're invented -- and often *before* the Trump administration has agreed on whether or not they're feasible. One of ideas these is that the U.S. will recognize Crimea as Russian territory.Image
As you might expect, this was Steve Witkoff's proposal, which is to say it was Vladimir Putin's. Dim Philby isn't so much an envoy as an unblinking relay of Putin's maximalist demands, all of which he presents to Trump as eminently reasonable, if not accomplished facts. (Recall Witkoff's lie that Russia was in full control of the Ukrainian regions it "annexed," regions Witkoff doesn't know the names of, when it is in full control of none of them.) The "Krym Nash" brain fart, I'm told, happened without any inter-agency coordination or buy-in from the principals, least of all Marco Rubio, who is at odds with Witkoff on this and on much else, regardless of the flattering tweets he is obliged to post about his scandalous colleague. Now notice this little nuance in the WSJ story cited above:Image
"Senior State Department official," indeed. You can almost hear the whirr of the backpedal in that paragraph. Giving up Crimea in a de facto or de jure capacity is a non-starter for Ukraine, as any junior State Department official can tell you. Zelensky could never sell it domestically even if he wanted to (and he doesn't) because the the political blowback would be severe and almost certainly unite opposition to both the policy and his presidency in a way that would make the resistance he experienced over the Steinmeier Formula look coy. (This might even result in a far more nationalistic and hawkish political figure to emerge as frontrunner for the Ukrainian presidency; exactly the opposite of what the Putin-Vance-Carlson triumvirate has been angling for.)
Read 7 tweets
Apr 18
America's "washing its hands" of Ukraine-Russia talks can mean several things. First and foremost, it would mean ending this Witkoff/Rubio fandango to attain (or impose) a Russia-favorable peace deal of some kind, which reportedly would include de facto ceding occupied territory to Moscow. But what else does an American walk-away entail? Some unresolved questions below:Image
1. It is a near certainty that no additional military aid packages will come from this administration once the Biden-era ones run out. But does that mean Trump will refuse to sell weapons and ammunition directly or indirectly to Ukraine? Does it mean he will actively slap end user restrictions on European countries from buying American kit for the express purpose of donating it to Ukraine? (Even Rubio alluded to Ukraine's right to bilateral agreements with other countries.)

Right now, Germany continues to supply Kyiv with Patriot missiles. Long-range air defense is one of three critical areas in security assistance where Europe cannot yet compensate for the absence of American platforms, the other two being rocket artillery and howitzer ammunition. So new European aid packages featuring U.S.-made hardware seriously matter. Does Trump's pivot to Moscow include his limiting U.S. arms exports to Europe, something that would grievously harm the American arms industry beyond the harm Trump already inflicted on it with his attacks on transatlanticism, NATO, etc.? Between 2020 and 2024, Europe overtook the Middle East as the largest region for U.S. arms exports for the first time in two decades. Now, this government is clearly not above economic own goals, but it'll nonetheless be interesting to see how it sells a new dawn with Russia -- one without a concomitant peace -- as the price worth paying for crippling the American military-industrial complex.Image
2. Does Trump lift some or most sanctions on Russia in the absence of a peace deal? He might in pursuit of rapprochement, but even here he'll find it difficult to give Putin everything he wants with the stroke of a pen. Some of the toughest sanctions, including those on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, are tied to Congressional notification/approval, thanks to Biden. Trump would also face some headwinds from Republicans on the Hill, who would not be happy with sanctions relief in exchange for nothing.

Moreover, Europe gets a vote.

SWIFT, which Moscow wanted its agricultural bank reconnected to as a precondition for a ceasefire, is based in Brussels. EU sanctions legislation is by consent. So far, there has been *no* indication the EU is considering lifting sanctions on Russia, whatever D.C. says, does or agrees to. The opposite, in fact, is the case: the EU has been discussing ways to increase sanctions on Russia in coordination with the UK: archive.ph/qsVfcImage
Read 6 tweets
Mar 26
There is zero fucking chance this was "unclassified." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…Image
"This is when the first bombs will definitely drop." Image
LOL. Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 21
Excellent analysis by Kiel Institute. Some conclusions track with what @JimmySecUK wrote for @newlinesmag here: newlinesmag.com/argument/can-e…Image
“To replace US aid flows and keep total support at the same level: Europe needs to double its yearly support to an average level of 0.21% of GDP. This is less than half of what Denmark and the Baltics are already doing and on a level of what Poland and the Netherlands do.”
“Currently, European governments contribute about €44 billion annually to Ukraine’s defense, or roughly 0.1% of their
combined GDP, a relatively modest fiscal commitment. To replace total US aid, Europe would need to increase its annual support to approximately €82 billion per year, or 0.21% of GDP —essentially
doubling its current financial effort.
the United States allocated just 0.15% of their GDP per year to Ukraine, European states the 0.13%, and the EU institutions just below the 0.1%.”
Read 7 tweets
Feb 22
This is an excellent and timely factsheet on Ukraine, U.S. v. European security assistance, and other misunderstood or lied about aspects of the war, by our friends at @TheStudyofWar. I'll summarize a few main points below, with additional sources of my own: understandingwar.org/backgrounder/u…
Russia's advances have slowed considerably in the last few months. It was taking, on average, 28 sq km per day in November; it took 16 sq km in January. Why is this? Russians are suffering severe manpower and equipment losses and Ukraine is causing them greater pain with its fleet of domestically sourced FPV drones, which now include fiber-optic wire-guided drones to evade electronic warfare. (Drones increasingly compensate for artillery shortages on the Ukrainian side.) Such is the state of Russia's army, its soldiers are now using donkeys to transport ammunition to the frontlines: independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
Of course, Russia still has its own formidable capabilities and advantages on the battlefield, especially in glide bombs and drones: it, too, deploys fiber-optic wire-guided FPVs. But, as @Jack_Watling, one of the best military analysts of the war has noted, the "Russian military is massively underperforming, largely because of the poor quality of its [third big advantage] infantry and a lack of lower-level command and control." theguardian.com/world/2025/feb…
Read 14 tweets
Dec 19, 2024
New "Karl" thread, with @holger_r: 🧵
"The situation on the frontlines has not significantly changed in the last month. For UA, the most difficult area remains the southern part of the eastern front—Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. RU continues to advance there, but very slowly and at the cost of heavy losses."
"Some bloggers claim that Kurakhove has already fallen into RU's hands, but it seems that this is not yet the case. UA continues to resist, but after some time, RU will take the town. Pokrovsk is farther away, and urban battles there could last a long time. There is no real threat of RU capturing it within a couple of months."
Read 38 tweets

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