Climate change is causing the fires in L.A., says the media. But one of the government's top fire experts says, “I don't think these fires are the result of climate change." The media blame climate change to divert attention from the incompetence of the politicians they like. 
Jon Keeley: “L.A. Fires Not The Result Of Climate Change”
“Chaparral fires have been around for at least 20 million years,” says a leading US government scientist. “What’s changed is we have people on the landscape”
Two people are dead, and 80,000 have been forced to evacuate neighborhoods in Los Angeles thanks to fires raging out of control. According to the media and some scientists, climate change is causing the fires. “Researchers believe that a warming world is increasing the conditions that are conducive to wildland fire, including low relative humidity,” reported the BBC.
But one of the country’s top fire experts disagrees. “I don't think these fires are the result of climate change,” Jon Keeley, a US Geological Survey scientist, told Public. “You certainly could get these events without climate change.”
Keeley has researched the topic for 40 years. In 2017, Keeley and a team of scientists modeled thirty-seven different regions across the United States and found that “humans may not only influence fire regimes but their presence can actually override, or swamp out, the effects of climate.”
Keeley’s team found that the only statistically significant factors for the frequency and severity of fires on an annual basis were population and proximity to development. “We’ve looked at the history of climate and fire throughout the whole state,” said Keeley, “and through much of the state, particularly the western half of the state, we don’t see any relationship between past climates and the amount of area burned in any given year.”
What about scientists who claim that the dry conditions are unusual? “If you look at the past 100 years of climates in Southern California,” said Keeley, “you will find there have been Januaries that have been very dry. And there's been autumns that have been very dry. There have been Santa Ana winds in January. So these sorts of conditions are what contribute to a fire being particularly destructive at this time of the year. But it's not the result of climate change.”
It’s true that “We are seeing changes in Santa Ana winds,” said Keeley. “For example, we've looked at fire history going back to the middle of the 20th century. For the first half of that record, Santa Ana winds were more common in September than they are today. They were less common in the winter than they are today. It appears that we are seeing a shift in the distribution of Santa Ana winds. But we have no basis for saying that's due to global warming. There's no evidence that climate change has impacted Santa Ana winds...”
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“Chaparral fires have been around for at least 20 million years,” says a leading US government scientist. “What’s changed is we have people on the landscape”
Two people are dead, and 80,000 have been forced to evacuate neighborhoods in Los Angeles thanks to fires raging out of control. According to the media and some scientists, climate change is causing the fires. “Researchers believe that a warming world is increasing the conditions that are conducive to wildland fire, including low relative humidity,” reported the BBC.
But one of the country’s top fire experts disagrees. “I don't think these fires are the result of climate change,” Jon Keeley, a US Geological Survey scientist, told Public. “You certainly could get these events without climate change.”
Keeley has researched the topic for 40 years. In 2017, Keeley and a team of scientists modeled thirty-seven different regions across the United States and found that “humans may not only influence fire regimes but their presence can actually override, or swamp out, the effects of climate.”
Keeley’s team found that the only statistically significant factors for the frequency and severity of fires on an annual basis were population and proximity to development. “We’ve looked at the history of climate and fire throughout the whole state,” said Keeley, “and through much of the state, particularly the western half of the state, we don’t see any relationship between past climates and the amount of area burned in any given year.”
What about scientists who claim that the dry conditions are unusual? “If you look at the past 100 years of climates in Southern California,” said Keeley, “you will find there have been Januaries that have been very dry. And there's been autumns that have been very dry. There have been Santa Ana winds in January. So these sorts of conditions are what contribute to a fire being particularly destructive at this time of the year. But it's not the result of climate change.”
It’s true that “We are seeing changes in Santa Ana winds,” said Keeley. “For example, we've looked at fire history going back to the middle of the 20th century. For the first half of that record, Santa Ana winds were more common in September than they are today. They were less common in the winter than they are today. It appears that we are seeing a shift in the distribution of Santa Ana winds. But we have no basis for saying that's due to global warming. There's no evidence that climate change has impacted Santa Ana winds...”
Please, subscribe now to support Public's award-winning investigative journalism, to read the rest of the article, and listen to the rest of the podcast!
x.com/shellenberger/…
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