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Chris Martz Profile picture
@ChrisMartzWX
Jan 9 β€’ 1 tweets β€’ 5 min read β€’ Read on X
Hi there Colonel Sanders. πŸ‘‹

Do you like facts? πŸ€” I hope you do, because you're about to be sacked with some. πŸ“š

Here we go. . .

First, climate change does 𝒏𝒐𝒕 cause forest fires. That isn't how this works.

Fires require an ignition source and fuel. ☝️

Ignition sources may be natural (e.g., lightning) or it can be man-made (e.g., by accident from improperly disposed cigarette butts, improperly discarded pellet / wood stove ash, an out-of-control campfire or fallen power lines, or perhaps even intentionally by arson). But, climate change is not one of them.

The 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒄𝒂𝒖𝒔𝒆 of the Pacific Palisades fire hasn't been determined.

But, what is known is that it is being fueled by dried out vegetation and is being stoked by Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) with hurricane-force wind gusts. These winds are a byproduct of a tight horizontal pressure gradient between a tropospheric ridge situated over the Great Basin and a cut-off low spinning over Baja California. Southwesterly downslope flow accelerated by a tight gradient can easily dry out vegetation, especially small-diameter fuels like twigs and leaves, priming a forest for a fire should one be ignited.

While the warming atmosphere β€” and, for sake of argument, we will assume that it is entirely due to mankind's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions β€” might make π‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘Žπ‘–π‘› weather conditions more conducive for forest fires in Southern California, there is yet to be an established β€œconsensus” on exactly how fires will change in the region with increased global warming. The reason for this is because air temperature during the event and precipitation deficits over the preceding weeks and/or months aren't the only β€” or necessarily even the most important β€” factors in fire burn area (e.g., Keeley et al., 2021).

Keeley et al. (2021) found that all SAW-driven fires in Southern California that occurred between 1948 and 2018 had a human ignition source. While the majority between 1948 and 1983 were linked to campfires, arson and powerline failures have been the dominant cause since 1984. These results are similar to those in Balch et al. (2017), which found that 97% of fires in Southern (Mediterranean) California were caused by a human ignition source between 1992 and 2012.

πŸ”—pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

πŸ”—pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

According to Keeley et al. (2021),

πŸŸ† The maximum temperature during SAW-driven fires ranged from 42.6-95.4Β°F (5.9-35.2Β°C). For January, these values ranged from 44.1-81.1Β°F (6.7-27.3Β°C). With a statistical t-test, they found that fires that burned over 1,000 hectares (2,471.05 acres) were not linked to higher-than-average air temperatures, and this also held true for very large fires burning >5,000 hectares (12,355.27 acres). Only 5-20% of the variation in area burned during winter is explained by air temperature.

πŸŸ† Precipitation surplus / deficits in the week before a SAW event also did not play a significant role in the incidence and severity of wind-driven fires in the area between 1948 and 2018. This is largely because small-diameter fuels like twigs and leaves will dry out quickly when the weather conditions change.

The study concludes that 75% of SAW events do 𝒏𝒐𝒕 result in forest fires.

Rather, more human ignitions increase the likelihood that a fire escapes containment and becomes a large destructive fire, regardless of air temperature or soil / fuel moisture conditions both preceding and during a fire event. So, while rising air temperature and lower precipitation can increase fire risk in the future, it is a very small part of the bigger picture.

Keeley et al. (2021) concludes that,

πŸ’¬ β€œπΉπ‘’π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’ π‘“π‘–π‘Ÿπ‘’ π‘™π‘œπ‘ π‘ π‘’π‘  π‘π‘Žπ‘› 𝑏𝑒 π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘π‘’π‘π‘’π‘‘ 𝑏𝑦 π‘”π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿ π‘’π‘šπ‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘ π‘–π‘  π‘œπ‘› π‘šπ‘Žπ‘–π‘›π‘‘π‘’π‘›π‘Žπ‘›π‘π‘’ π‘œπ‘“ 𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑦 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑠 π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ π‘Žπ‘‘π‘‘π‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› π‘‘π‘œ π‘π‘™π‘Žπ‘›π‘›π‘–π‘›π‘” π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘π‘Žπ‘› π‘”π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘€π‘‘β„Ž 𝑖𝑛 π‘€π‘Žπ‘¦π‘  π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘π‘’π‘π‘’ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘π‘œπ‘‘π‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘–π‘Žπ‘™ π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿ π‘π‘œπ‘€π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘™π‘–π‘›π‘’ π‘–π‘”π‘›π‘–π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘ .”

What's more, it is unclear at this point in time exactly how SAW events will change in response to a warming climate.

One study, Rolinski et al. (2019), has found a recent observational increase in SAW days over the past two decades and links this to increased jet stream ridging patterns in California.

πŸ”—journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/…

However, Guzman-Morales & Gershunov (2019) finds that a weakening of the southwest pressure gradient that drives these SAWs 𝒅𝒆𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒆𝒔 in their global climate models (GCMs) in response to GHG forcing on the climate system, although the trends are diminished in the late autumn and winter months.

πŸ”—agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…

So, there's quite a bit of uncertainty here.

There is evidence of some influence of GHG forcing on creating a more favorable fire weather environment in Southern California in recent decades.

However, burn area associated with SAW events isn't very dependent on the air temperature during the fire, and antecedent precipitation and fuel moisture aren't very critical either. This is because downslope airflow is sufficient enough to dry out most vegetation in just a matter of hours, creating a tinderbox should a forest be set ablaze. And, how SAW evolve with a changing climate is unclear.

But, placing powerlines underground can significantly reduce fire risk in the future, and having better forest management (e.g., controlled burning and mechanical thinning of underbrush) will as well.

Climate change is real, but grifters like Senator Bernie Sanders need to stop pinning every natural disaster that happens on it, and using these crises as a crutch to advance their political agendas. Junk science is bad for policymaking and leads to ineffective solutions to the challenges facing society.
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Oct 12, 2024
Yikes. 😬

CNN’s Jim @Acosta interviewed children’s TV science educator and mechanical engineer, @BillNye, yesterday to offer his expertise on hurricanes, and to take a jab at Florida Governor @RonDeSantis, who β€” and I quote their headline β€” β€œβ€¦denies climate change fueled [Hurricane] Milton.”

𝐉𝐒𝐦 π€πœπ¨π¬π­πš: β€œπ΄ 𝑛𝑒𝑀 𝑠𝑑𝑒𝑑𝑦 π‘ β„Žπ‘œπ‘€π‘  π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘Ž-π‘€π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘š π‘€π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿ 𝑖𝑛 π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ 𝐺𝑒𝑙𝑓 π‘œπ‘“ 𝑀𝑒π‘₯π‘–π‘π‘œ β€˜π‘ π‘’π‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘”π‘’π‘‘β€™ 𝐻𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑒 π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ β„Žπ‘’π‘šπ‘Žπ‘›-π‘π‘Žπ‘’π‘ π‘’π‘‘ π‘π‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘”π‘’, π‘œπ‘“ π‘π‘œπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘ π‘’, π‘™π‘–π‘˜π‘’π‘™π‘¦ β„Žπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘‘ 𝑒𝑝 π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ π‘€π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿ β€” π‘Ž π‘™π‘œπ‘‘ π‘‘π‘œ 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 π‘€π‘–π‘‘β„Ž π‘œπ‘’π‘Ÿ 𝑛𝑒π‘₯𝑑 𝑔𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑑, 𝐡𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑁𝑦𝑒 π‘‡β„Žπ‘’ 𝑆𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝐺𝑒𝑦… π‘Šπ‘–π‘‘β„Ž β„Žπ‘œπ‘€ π‘šπ‘’π‘β„Ž π‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘Žπ‘–π‘›π‘‘π‘¦ π‘π‘Žπ‘› 𝑀𝑒 π‘ π‘Žπ‘¦, β€˜π‘Œπ‘’π‘ , π‘π‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘”π‘’ 𝑖𝑠 β„Žπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘›π‘” 𝑒𝑝 π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ 𝐺𝑒𝑙𝑓 π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ π‘ π‘’π‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘”π‘–π‘›π‘” π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘ π‘’ β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘Žπ‘›π‘’π‘ ?”

𝐁𝐒π₯π₯ 𝐍𝐲𝐞: β€œπ‘Šπ‘’π‘™π‘™, π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’β€™π‘  π‘›π‘œ π‘žπ‘’π‘’π‘ π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ π‘π‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘”π‘’ 𝑖𝑠 β„Žπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘›π‘” 𝑒𝑝 π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ 𝐺𝑒𝑙𝑓. π‘‡β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘β€™π‘  π‘π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘£π‘’π‘›. π‘‡β„Žπ‘’ π‘žπ‘’π‘’π‘ π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› 𝑖𝑠, π‘‘π‘œπ‘’π‘  π‘Žπ‘› π‘–π‘›π‘‘π‘–π‘£π‘–π‘‘π‘’π‘Žπ‘™ π‘ π‘‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘š π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘ π‘’π‘™π‘‘ [𝑠𝑖𝑐] π‘œπ‘“ π‘π‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘”π‘’? π‘Šπ‘’π‘™π‘™, 𝑖𝑛 π‘‘β„Žπ‘–π‘  π‘π‘Žπ‘ π‘’, 𝑦𝑒𝑠, π‘π‘’π‘π‘Žπ‘’π‘ π‘’ 𝑖𝑑’𝑠 π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ β„Žπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘ π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘β€™π‘  𝑖𝑛 π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘€π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿ π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ π‘”π‘œπ‘‘ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’ π‘“π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘š π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ β„Žπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘ π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘β€™π‘  β„Žπ‘’π‘™π‘‘ 𝑖𝑛 π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘Žπ‘‘π‘šπ‘œπ‘ π‘β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’ π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ π‘€π‘Žπ‘  β„Žπ‘’π‘™π‘‘ 𝑖𝑛 π‘œπ‘› π‘Žπ‘π‘π‘œπ‘’π‘›π‘‘ π‘œπ‘“ π‘π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘π‘œπ‘› π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘₯𝑖𝑑𝑒 π‘π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘›π‘π‘–π‘π‘™π‘’, π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ π‘Žπ‘™π‘ π‘œ π‘œπ‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿ π‘”π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘’π‘›β„Žπ‘œπ‘’π‘ π‘’ π‘”π‘Žπ‘ π‘’π‘  π‘™π‘–π‘˜π‘’ π‘šπ‘’π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘’β€¦β€

𝐉𝐒𝐦 π€πœπ¨π¬π­πš: β€œπΉπ‘™π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘‘π‘Ž πΊπ‘œπ‘£π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘›π‘œπ‘Ÿ π‘…π‘œπ‘› π·π‘’π‘†π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘π‘–π‘ , β„Žπ‘’β€™π‘  𝑏𝑒𝑒𝑛 π‘π‘’π‘ β„Žπ‘–π‘›π‘” π‘π‘Žπ‘π‘˜ π‘œπ‘› π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘π‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’β€™π‘  π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘™π‘’ 𝑖𝑛 π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘ π‘’ π‘ π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘›π‘”π‘’π‘Ÿ π‘ π‘‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘šπ‘ . 𝐿𝑒𝑑’𝑠 π‘‘π‘Žπ‘˜π‘’ π‘Ž 𝑙𝑖𝑠𝑑𝑒𝑛 π‘‘π‘œ π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ π‘‘π‘Žπ‘™π‘˜ π‘Žπ‘π‘œπ‘’π‘‘ 𝑖𝑑… π‘Šπ‘’ π‘π‘œπ‘’π‘™π‘‘ 𝑗𝑒𝑠𝑑 π‘ β„Žπ‘œπ‘€ π‘œπ‘’π‘Ÿ π‘£π‘–π‘’π‘€π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘  β€” π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘¦ π‘π‘Žπ‘› π‘™π‘œπ‘œπ‘˜ π‘‘β„Žπ‘–π‘  𝑒𝑝 π‘œπ‘› π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘–π‘Ÿ π‘œπ‘€π‘› β€” π‘‡β„Žπ‘’ π‘“π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘žπ‘’π‘’π‘›π‘π‘¦ π‘œπ‘“ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘ π‘’ π‘π‘œπ‘€π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘“π‘’π‘™ β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘Žπ‘›π‘’π‘  β„Žπ‘Žπ‘  π‘π‘–π‘π‘˜π‘’π‘‘ 𝑒𝑝 π‘œπ‘£π‘’π‘Ÿ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘™π‘Žπ‘ π‘‘ π‘π‘œπ‘’π‘π‘™π‘’ π‘œπ‘“ π‘‘π‘’π‘π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘ .”

𝐁𝐒π₯π₯ 𝐍𝐲𝐞: β€œπ‘Šπ‘’π‘™π‘™, π‘Žπ‘π‘ π‘œπ‘™π‘’π‘‘π‘’π‘™π‘¦. . .”, then goes on to explain why we should vote [for Kamala Harris] with the climate in mind.

Let’s take a look at these claims one-by-one to see if they have any merit.

🧡 1/4
The studies that Acosta refers to are two new β€œflash” modeling attribution studies conducted by scientists for the World Weather Attribution (WWA) β€” an international academic collaboration which attempts to quantify how much climate change contributed to a particular extreme weather event.

They found, in summary, that,

πŸ’¬ β€œπ»π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘Žπ‘›π‘’ 𝐻𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑒'𝑠 π‘‘π‘’π‘Žπ‘‘π‘™π‘¦ π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘–π‘›π‘“π‘Žπ‘™π‘™ & 𝑀𝑖𝑛𝑑, π‘€β„Žπ‘–π‘β„Ž π‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘‘ π‘Ž π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘–π‘™ π‘œπ‘“ π‘‘π‘’π‘ π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› π‘Žπ‘π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘ π‘  500 π‘šπ‘–π‘™π‘’π‘  π‘œπ‘“ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘ˆπ‘† π‘†π‘œπ‘’π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘Žπ‘ π‘‘ 𝑖𝑛 π‘™π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘†π‘’π‘π‘‘π‘’π‘šπ‘π‘’π‘Ÿ, π‘€π‘Žπ‘  π‘–π‘›π‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘Žπ‘ π‘’π‘‘ 𝑏𝑦 π‘π‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘”π‘’.”

πŸ”—worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change…

and that,

πŸ’¬ β€œπ‘Šπ‘–π‘‘β„Žπ‘œπ‘’π‘‘ π‘π‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘”π‘’, π»π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘Žπ‘›π‘’ π‘€π‘–π‘™π‘‘π‘œπ‘› π‘€π‘œπ‘’π‘™π‘‘ β„Žπ‘Žπ‘£π‘’ π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘™π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘π‘“π‘Žπ‘™π‘™ π‘Žπ‘  π‘Ž πΆπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘”π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘¦ 2 π‘–π‘›π‘ π‘‘π‘’π‘Žπ‘‘ π‘œπ‘“ π‘Ž πΆπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘”π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘¦ 3 π‘ π‘‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘š. πΉπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘šπ‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘’, π‘€π‘–π‘™π‘‘π‘œπ‘›'𝑠 π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘–π‘›π‘“π‘Žπ‘™π‘™ & 𝑀𝑖𝑛𝑑 π‘€π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’ π‘π‘œπ‘‘β„Ž π‘šπ‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘’ π‘™π‘–π‘˜π‘’π‘™π‘¦ & 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑒 π‘‘π‘œ π‘π‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘”π‘’, π‘Žπ‘π‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘–π‘›π‘” π‘‘π‘œ π‘œπ‘’π‘Ÿ π‘™π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘ π‘‘ π‘Žπ‘›π‘Žπ‘™π‘¦π‘ π‘–π‘ .”

πŸ”—worldweatherattribution.org/yet-another-hu…

Neither of these β€œstudies” have been subject to the β€œpeer-review” process, but nonetheless are receiving widespread media circulation to feed hungry audiences with sensationalistic junk. The irony of this is that the alarmist arm-wavers require skeptics to have their thoughts circle-jerked through the β€œpeer-review” process in order for it to be considered valid.

πŸ”—worldweatherattribution.org/wwa-resources/

I guess this doesn't apply to scientists who adhere to the establishment narrative on climate change. So long as you say nothing deviant from their accepted standards, your feet aren't held to the fire.

Even more laughable is that the Milton β€œstudy” was published not even two days after the hurricane made landfall. It's bunk. No ensemble of scientists can conduct research that fast and publish a half-baked preprint with definitive results on quantification.

🧡 2/4Image
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Extreme [weather] event attribution studies in and of themselves are junk.

Climate change does 𝒏𝒐𝒕 cause, fuel or influence any one weather event β€” that's not how this works.

Walk with me. . . πŸšΆβ€β™‚οΈ

π‘ͺπ’π’Šπ’Žπ’‚π’•π’† is defined by the IPCC as,

πŸ’¬ β€œ. . .π‘π‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ 𝑖𝑠 π‘’π‘ π‘’π‘Žπ‘™π‘™π‘¦ 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑 π‘Žπ‘  π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π’‚π’—π’†π’“π’‚π’ˆπ’† π’˜π’†π’‚π’•π’‰π’†π’“, π‘œπ‘Ÿ π‘šπ‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘’ π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘”π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘’π‘ π‘™π‘¦ π‘Žπ‘  π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π’”π’•π’‚π’•π’Šπ’”π’•π’Šπ’„π’‚π’ π’…π’†π’”π’„π’“π’Šπ’‘π’•π’Šπ’π’ 𝑖𝑛 π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘šπ‘  π‘œπ‘“ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π’Žπ’†π’‚π’ 𝒂𝒏𝒅 π’—π’‚π’“π’Šπ’‚π’ƒπ’Šπ’π’Šπ’•π’š 𝒐𝒇 𝒓𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒂𝒏𝒕 π’’π’–π’‚π’π’•π’Šπ’•π’Šπ’†π’” 𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒓 𝒂 π’‘π’†π’“π’Šπ’π’… 𝒐𝒇 π’•π’Šπ’Žπ’† π’“π’‚π’π’ˆπ’Šπ’π’ˆ π’‡π’“π’π’Ž π’Žπ’π’π’•π’‰π’” 𝒕𝒐 𝒕𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒔𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒔 𝒐𝒓 π’Žπ’Šπ’π’π’Šπ’π’π’” 𝒐𝒇 π’šπ’†π’‚π’“π’”... πΆπ‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ 𝑖𝑛 π‘Ž π‘€π‘–π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿ 𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝑖𝑠 π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘ π‘‘π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’, 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 π‘Ž π‘ π‘‘π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘ π‘‘π‘–π‘π‘Žπ‘™ π‘‘π‘’π‘ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›, π‘œπ‘“ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘π‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘ π‘¦π‘ π‘‘π‘’π‘š.”

So, in essence, climate is nothing but a statistical description of the weather and overall global climate system.

π‘ͺπ’π’Šπ’Žπ’‚π’•π’† π’„π’‰π’‚π’π’ˆπ’†, as defined by the IPCC, is,

πŸ’¬ β€œπ΄ π’„π’‰π’‚π’π’ˆπ’† π’Šπ’ 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 π’„π’π’Šπ’Žπ’‚π’•π’† 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒄𝒂𝒏 𝒃𝒆 π’Šπ’…π’†π’π’•π’Šπ’‡π’Šπ’†π’… (𝑒.𝑔., 𝑏𝑦 𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 π‘ π‘‘π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘ π‘‘π‘–π‘π‘Žπ‘™ 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑑𝑠) π’ƒπ’š π’„π’‰π’‚π’π’ˆπ’†π’” π’Šπ’ 𝒕𝒉𝒆 π’Žπ’†π’‚π’ 𝒂𝒏𝒅/𝒐𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒆 π’—π’‚π’“π’Šπ’‚π’ƒπ’Šπ’π’Šπ’•π’š 𝒐𝒇 π’Šπ’•π’” π’‘π’“π’π’‘π’†π’“π’•π’Šπ’†π’” 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 π’‘π’†π’“π’”π’Šπ’”π’•π’” 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒂𝒏 𝒆𝒙𝒕𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒅 π’‘π’†π’“π’Šπ’π’…, π‘‘π‘¦π‘π‘–π‘π‘Žπ‘™π‘™π‘¦ π‘‘π‘’π‘π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘  π‘œπ‘Ÿ π‘™π‘œπ‘›π‘”π‘’π‘Ÿ. πΆπ‘™π‘–π‘šπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘”π‘’ π‘šπ‘Žπ‘¦ 𝑏𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑒 π‘‘π‘œ π‘›π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘™ π‘–π‘›π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘›π‘Žπ‘™ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘π‘’π‘ π‘ π‘’π‘  π‘œπ‘Ÿ 𝑒π‘₯π‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘›π‘Žπ‘™ π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘π‘–π‘›π‘”π‘  π‘ π‘’π‘β„Ž π‘Žπ‘  π‘šπ‘œπ‘‘π‘’π‘™π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘  π‘œπ‘“ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘ π‘œπ‘™π‘Žπ‘Ÿ 𝑐𝑦𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑠, π‘£π‘œπ‘™π‘π‘Žπ‘›π‘–π‘ π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘  π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ π‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘ π‘–π‘ π‘‘π‘’π‘›π‘‘ π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘β„Žπ‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘π‘œπ‘”π‘’π‘›π‘–π‘ π‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘›π‘”π‘’π‘  𝑖𝑛 π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘π‘œπ‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› π‘œπ‘“ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘Žπ‘‘π‘šπ‘œπ‘ π‘β„Žπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’ π‘œπ‘Ÿ 𝑖𝑛 π‘™π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ 𝑒𝑠𝑒.”

Thus, climate π’„π’‰π’‚π’π’ˆπ’† is a change in the statistics of the state variables describing the climate system (e.g., temperature, pressure, humidity, etc.).

πŸ”—apps.ipcc.ch/glossary/

Therefore, climate and climate change are outcomes; they're 𝒏𝒐𝒕 causes. The average weather is 𝒏𝒐𝒕 a force that causes things to occur.

Do not put the cart before the horse.

If you're confused here, maybe some emojis will help:

πŸš«πŸ›’πŸŽ
βœ…πŸŽπŸ›’

Case in point, as a pristine example, a baseball player's batting average does 𝒏𝒐𝒕 result in individual hits, strikes or balls. Similarly, a change in batting average does 𝒏𝒐𝒕 cause hitting performance to either improve or deteriorate. A change in his batting average is an outcome.

Dr. @RogerPielkeJr wrote a very nice essay on this on his Substack; I highly recommend this read. The use of the IPCC definitions and baseball analogy were both pulled from his writeup. Credit to him.

Give it a little click-sy, 🫳
πŸ”—rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/climate-fuel…

🧡3/4
Read 4 tweets
Chris Martz Profile picture
Mar 26, 2024
I'm an atmospheric science major, and I also watched @ClimateTheMovie.

While I don't necessarily agree with everything said in the movie, the scientists interviewed often made great points, and much of what this β€œscience journalist” has argued is crap.

Time to debunk the debunker. 1/? 🧡
Maarten argues that β€œThe β€˜warm’ Medieval and Roman periods... were actually REGIONAL. Current warming is EVERYWHERE.”

Except... that's not what the United Nations' IPCC said in their First Assessment Report (FAR) in 1990. Directly from Chapter 7.2.1 on Page 202,

β€œThere is growing evidence that worldwide temperatures were higher than at present during the mid-Holocene (especially 5,000-6,000 BP), at least in summer, though carbon dioxide levels appear to have been quite similar to those of the pre-industrial era at this time... Parts of Australia and Chile were also warmer. The late tenth to early thirteenth centuries (about AD 950-1250) appear to have been exceptionally warm in western Europe, Iceland and Greenland. This period is known as the Medieval Climatic Optimum... South Japan was also warm. This period of widespread warmth is notable in that there is no evidence that it was caused by an increase of greenhouse gases.”

Figure 7.1 is captioned as showing β€œglobal temperature variations.” Figure 7.1 (c) covers the last 1,000 years, and it is evident that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was anomalously warm relative to the modern era. In later reports, this diagram was replaced with Michael Mann's β€œHockey Stick” graph.

🧡 2/?

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This Dutch science journalist then goes on to argue that the Ljungqvist (2010) [1] Northern Hemispheric temperature reconstruction shown in the movie is β€œTWENTY YEARS OLD,” and argues that it is wrong because of the widely accepted Mann et al. 1999 β€œHockey Stick” reconstruction that is now used in the IPCC reports and serves as a basis for guiding global policymaking.

Except... for the fact that Moberg et al. (2005) [2] is very similar to Ljungqvist (2010) and the schematic diagram of global temperature used in the IPCC's 1990 First Assessment Report (FAR).

References:
[1] Ljungqvist (2010) - A New Reconstruction of Temperature Variability in the Extra-Tropical Northern Hemisphere During the Last Two Millennia.

[2] Moberg et al. (2005) - Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data:

🧡 3/?jstor.org/stable/4093099…
researchgate.net/publication/20…Image
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Read 14 tweets

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