This 🧵is NOT for those in harm's way in the LA-area catastrophe. Find local advice and help. It is for those facing similar #wui fire risks elsewhere (this is not "wildfire"; it's an urban firestorm sparked by wildfire) and eager to stay safe. As you see the rush to explain the vast losses, look for the word #grandfathered. You won't see it much but it's vital. Here's why. 1/
California has fine building codes for #wildfire risk reduction. osfm.fire.ca.gov/what-we-do/cod…. But in most communities, huge numbers of homes and other buildings are exempt because they were built before the new codes went into force. That's where the word #grandfathered comes in. There are other issues. But I'm just focusing on those exemptions for the moment. 2/
The @CountyofLA "after action" report on the 2019 #woolseyfire that devastated Malibu lays this out.
3/ file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/bos/s…
Read the report and then, as the coverage flows forward from the current disaster, keep watch for "grandfathered" as assessments of the thousands of destroyed structures in the #palisadesfire #eatonfire #PasadenaFire and the rest are done in the weeks ahead. I'll be writing a #sustainwhat post on this drawing on insights from folks like @MichaelWWara @headecon and others. Get in touch if you have insights! 4/
I’ve seen some assertions that it’s unprecedented to have hurricane impacts as far inland as those of #helene.
Case study- The massive losses in the great Vermont flood of November 1927
@NWS background:
A late season hurricane moved up the Atlantic coast in early November 1927 and proceeded to move up through the Connecticut River valley. The storm dumped generally 3-4 inches of rain through much of southern New England. However, as the system reached the higher altitudes in Vermont, the tropical system stalled due to the presence of two cold, high pressures areas just to the east and west. The result was widespread areas of 6 inches or more of rainfall during the period of November 2-5, with reports received of up to 15 inches of rainfall. In addition, October had been a very wet month, with rainfall generally about 150% of normal for the month.weather.gov/nerfc/hf_novem…
My heart goes out to those affected across the South by Hurricane Helene. At the same time, those calling this calamity (particularly the North Carolina devastation) "unprecedented" are exhibiting either amnesia or irresponsible conscious disregard for past tropical-storm-driven extreme floods there. There were double-storm flood disasters in 2004 and - particularly awful - 1916. Here's a trailer for David Weintraub's film on the centennial of the earlier disaster, with lots more in the 🧵, Here's his website: 1/saveculture.org/project/great-…
Global warming is a serious problem (as I've reported since 1988). But... "Experts and skippers say" is a warning sign in stories like this @reuters article straining to find a #climatechange angle in a tragic fatal yacht sinking in a freak windstorm in Sicily. A #singlesource clue. The one climatologist may be a fine researcher but is not "experts." 🧵
Bigger problem? No reference to the @IPCC_CH, the bedrock source for what climate science says. These reports should be the first stop for any journalist @CoveringClimate and seeking clarity on a particular hazard and region. There are lots of recent and projected changes with warming, but... 2/
The @IPCC_CH AR6 WG2 assessment couldn't identify a sign of storm changes in the Med with global warming. In fact, the trend may be in the other direction. ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2…
Boy is this climate paper, finding substantial prompt heating effects from the 2020-onward cuts in 🚢🌋-style pollution, is stirring up all kinds of reactions - criticism from some climate modelers and "we told you so long ago" from those centering on shipping emissions over the last couple of years. As always, it's important to avoid #singlestudysyndrome, but that doesn't mean @tianle_yuan et al are wrong. Some reactions in 🧵 below as I come across them. And feel free to reply with others! 1/
The @dpcarrington story has a remarkably definitive headline considering the caveats: "‘Termination shock’: cut in ship pollution sparked global heating spurt"
One problem with this bill is that Vermont is among northeastern states identified in a 2002 study as seeing a rising pattern of extreme scouring precipitation/flooding on time scales long predating fossil fuel emissions. I covered that paper (Noren, Bierman, Steig et al) in the @nytimes. (Video is of the November 1927 great flood event from a fading tropical system).
Here's the @nytimes story and the @nature paper: "Millennial-scale storminess variability in the northeastern United States during the Holocene epoch" nytimes.com/2002/10/25/us/… uvm.edu/~pbierman/clas…
@nytimes @Nature Here’s a gift link to my 2010 @nytopinion column on weird weather in a warming world. CO2-driven global heating is a serious reality but so is extreme climate variability on long time scales. nytimes.com/2010/09/08/opi…
There are a zillion book clubs, and online book chats, but how many communities put on dramatic readings drawing from a nonfiction climate book?
Thrilled to discover that our tiny Maine town is one. A packed house at Lamoine Grange today for a show built on The Treeline by @BenRawlence 1/lamoinearts.org
The performers took on the roles of Saami herders and Siberian villagers and scientists confronting rapid climatic and ecological disruptions, building on the reporting of Rawlence and reminding me repeatedly of the fieldwork of Kari Norgaard. 2/ us.macmillan.com/books/97812502…
I was struck that there was a packed house in the middle of a beautiful, if chilly, spring afternoon here in downeast Maine. Even better with the brainstorm afterward. Will be doing a heap of things, including one of my webcasts to spread this idea. I’d love to know if you’ve seen other events like this.
So is there an international criminal investigation under way given that an Ecuador-based company added lead to cinnamon that ended up poisoning American (and other) kids?
"It was eventually determined that the lead was from contaminated cinnamon purchased from a third-party supplier. The FDA has reported that the lead was likely added to the cinnamon to increase its weight and therefore its commercial value." @bmarler.
So what company did this?! Some details from @Coral_TheBeach in @foodsafetynews 1/
"Sold under the brands Wanabana, Schnucks, and Weis, the applesauce was made at an Austrofoods facility in Ecuador using cinnamon from Negasmart." "The @US_FDA deputy commissioner for its Human Foods Program, Jim Jones, has said that he believes the cinnamon was intentionally contaminated with lead. Lead can increase the weight of foods." More: foodsafetynews.com/2023/12/offici… foodsafetynews.com/2023/11/compan…
So who added the lead to the cinnamon that got into kids' apple sauce, and is anyone going to jail? @CBSNews's @Alexander_Tin offers some clues:
"@US_FDA says @Arcsa_Ec blamed cinnamon grinder Carlos Aguilera as "likely source of contamination" But citing "limited authority" in Ecuador, it "cannot take direct action" against Aguilera..."