One hockey analyst who I have had an increasingly hard time taking seriously is @TheAthleticNHL's @coreypronman.
His U23 player rankings, which came out today, are just chock-full of contradictions and questionable-at-best takes.
Naturally, I've compiled a list.
1) Connor Bedard is ranked third behind Macklin Celebrini and Tim Stutzle, which, shockingly, isn't even my main issue with his Bedard ranking.
My main issue of it is that he rated Bedard's shot -- arguably a top-3 release in the entire NHL -- as "high-end" and not "elite."
2) He says this about Luke Hughes' skating: "He's a dynamic skater with freakish edge work and explosiveness for a defender his size" before ranking it too as "high-end" instead of "elite."
3) Cites Matvei Michkov's hockey sense as "tremendous" and says that he has "a sixth sense of how to create scoring chances for others or find his way into a scoring position."
Again, ranked as "high-end" and not "elite."
4) On Jake Sanderson's defense: "He's so good defensively because of how quickly he gets back on pucks and can get them up ice with his vision or feet."
...which is exactly how L. Hughes plays, but on L. Hughes' defense, he says: "defensive play will never be his calling card."
5) "[Zeev] Buium is a high-end skater," and then ranks his skating as "above average" and not "high-end."
6) He ranked the player in the first photo 79 spots ahead of the player in the 2nd photo.
7) Fantilli's "game-breaking puck skills" translate to a rating of "high-end" and not "elite."
8) He says that 6'1", 181 pound Dylan Guenther is "good size" but that 6'0", 190 pound Macklin Celebrini is "average size."
9) He touted Slafkovsky at the time he was drafted as the CLEAR #1 pick and DIED on that hill, only to now say that "the No. 1 pick next to his name will probably create unrealistic expectations."
10) Everything about Sam Dickinson's profile:
"He's... a high-end skater. He has an explosive, fluid stride that easily picks up power. He breaks up plays and closes gaps easily due to his skating..."
Ranked his skating as above average.
10, continued) "Dickinson is very skilled at handling the puck and often creates chances due to the combo of his skating and skill."
Ranked his puck skills as "average."
11) Everything about Quinton Byfield's profile:
He's listed at 6'5" on the border of the profile. Pronman says he is 6'4" literally two inches below that.
"He's so quick for a guy his size, as he has the speed and edge work of a 5-foot-11 forward..." Bam. "Above average."
12) Artyom Levshunov "skates well and can play an up-tempo style in how he attacks" but was given an "average" ranking for skating.
13) Carter Yakemchuk "has legit game-breaking skill" but his puck skills were given "above average," not "elite" or even "high-end."
14) On Anton Silayev's skating: "Silayev is a 6-foot-7 defenseman who skates very well for his size. He has excellent footwork and a smooth stride, with strong four-way mobility. He closes gaps quickly... he can skate pucks out of his zone well"
Skating ranked as "average."
15) Will Smith "has tremendous puck skills, vision and overall offensive creativity" and "is a high-end passer" but his puck skills and hockey sense are both listed as "above average."
16) Nate Danielson, whose skating is his best asset, is listed as having "average" skating.
17) Zayne Parekh is "a defenseman with a ton of skill and hockey sense. When the puck is on his stick, he beats opponents one-on-one often... He skates well, has great edges and can attack with his speed and skill."
Skating: Average. Puck-skills: Average.
18) Ryan Leonard is "a fast winger with a tremendous motor" but is ranked as having "average" skating.
19) Simon Edvinsson "is a rare package of size, mobility and skill" and "skates pucks up ice well" but has "average" skating.
20) Yaroslav Askarov, who has a .917 SV%, 2.39 GAA, and +4.1 GSAx playing on one of the worst defensive teams in the league, is ranked as the 42nd best U23 player in the league, behind the likes of Dimitriy Simashev, Daniil But, and about 20 others who haven't seen NHL time.
21) JJ Peterka is ranked as having "average" skating but apparently, "is full of speed."
22) Sandin Pellikka "is a highly skilled and poised defenseman" and "can beat teams with his skill" but has "average" puck skills.
23) Pavel Mintyukov is a "strong skater" and "can join the attack well off the rush" but has "average" skating ability.
24) Maveric Lamoreux, who Pronman says cannot make a basic first-pass and has the profile rankings in the first pic is ranked 65 spots ahead of the second pic.
25) Tij Iginla "beats defenders one-on-one at a high rate and improvises very well with the puck. He skates well and can make high-skill plays with his feet moving."
"Average" skating and "above average" puck skills.
26) Cutter Gauthier is "a big, fast, skilled forward with a natural offensive touch. He can create in transition due to his hands and feet" but his compete is just "fine."
All of skating, puck skills, AND compete have the same ranking: "Average."
27) Michael Brandsegg-Nygard has the same shot rating as Connor Bedard.
28) Ivan Miroshnichenko is a "strong skater with a high skill level" but his vision is just "good enough." All three of skating, puck skills, and hockey sense are listed as "average."
29) On Denton Mateychuk: "He's an excellent skater, with clear NHL edge work and speed to be able to skate pucks up ice at the top level, evade pressure and close on checks." His skating is listed as "above average."
29, continued) Meanwhile, all Pronman says about his shot is that it's "good" and it gets listed as "high-end."
30) Adam Jiricek is listed 11 spots above David Jiricek.
This is all I can fit in terms of what Twitter will allow me to post thread-wise, and I've gotten 30 gripes in the first 65 prospects.
Pronman should not be taken seriously. He writes like someone who watches the box score and interpolates reputation. Not someone who watches.
For a publication like the New York Times, even outside of the prospect rankings themselves being atrocious (Bedard 3, Askarov 42, Perreault 126, Wallstedt not even making an appearance, etc) the constant errors, mislabeling, contradictions, etc. are pretty jarring.
The fundamental issues I have with his ranking(s):
1) Pronman's job is to watch prospects. His opinions RARELY differ over time and he has a hard time saying "I'm wrong." His descriptions of the players rarely differ from what they were at draft-age.
2) Verbiage. If you're going to verbatim say "so-and-so has high-end skating," rank it as such.
Either widen the scope of ratings that you can give a player or choose your words more carefully. You are a professional writer for a massive outlet.
3) Due diligence. I suppose this falls on the editor(s) too, but his blurbs often don't reflect reality. He'll say a player is 6'4" when they're listed as 6'5" or that Michkov is leading the rookie race in scoring.
Again, professional writer for a huge outlet.
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I use analytics a lot when talking #NJDevils, and I realize that many people don't know what the hell I'm talking about a lot of the time (and sometimes it makes them angry!)
So, here is a cheat sheet for non-analytics people on the basic terms and how to use them.
Corsi (C): All shot attempts, blocked or unblocked, on-goal or missed. Fenwick (F) is used when measuring unblocked attempts only.
Corsi is more conventionally used and is an effective way to determine puck possession or the ratio of puck possession between teams.
Expected goals (xG): The probability that a shot attempt will result in a goal. 0.19 xG = 19% chance of resulting in a goal. 0.5 xG = 50%, etc.
GENERALLY speaking, teams/players that generate more xG than their opponents have better on-ice results.