Thread by @robtFPL

I went back and calculated #FPL Assistant Manager points for every PL game over the last 8 seasons (and combined with pre-game market WDL odds)

These are the top 100 AM scores for games played in GW24-38 between 2016-7 and 2023-24 👇

And a few brief observations below 🧵

The data suggest that two types of fixtures tend to get good average AM scores & should be of interest:

1⃣ Regular fixtures where a team is a very strong favourite (eg, 70+% win odds)
2⃣ Table bonus eligible games where a team is competitive or even favoured (eg, 30+% win odds)

While these two types of fixtures both achieve good AM scores on average, they have very different outcome distributions!

🦺 'Strong favourite' fixtures - lower ceiling but lower risk of a bust
🎆 'Competitive table bonus' fixtures - high ceiling but higher risk of a bust

How often (and when) do these fixtures occur?

- 'Strong favourite' fixtures have historically been more common in GW24-38 vs the competitive table bonus fixtures we're interested in

- Both occur a bit more often at the end of the season, likely some DGW and 'beach' effects

Can we double up on these fixtures in a DGW?

From 2016-2024, there were:
- 2 teams with two 'competitive table bonus' fixtures in a DGW
- 15 teams with two 'strong favourite' fixtures in a DGW

Much more likely that you'll be combining one with a slightly less exciting fixture!

Hope this was useful - happy to try and answer any questions people might have of the data

Shoutout to @12Xpert for the excellent odds archive, and @vaastav05 for the ever helpful FPL repo. And @extramac123 and @FPL_Spaceman for some sense checking!