Thread by @tzimmer_history

Been asked so many times: “What do you think will happen?”

We will know a lot more soon. But I do think it’s helpful to clarify expectations. The baseline, for me: Being lawless does not make Trump omnipotent. Yet the situation is significantly more dangerous than in 2017.

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We must resist the temptation to perpetuate Trump’s constant attempts to assert dominance by reflexively despairing over our supposedly hopeless situation. MAGA desires to project power and strength – something we should subvert rather than confirm. 2/

Being lawless does not make Trump omnipotent, and obscuring that distinction is an act of defeatism that only serves the regime. There is a vast gulf between Trump’s authoritarian aspirations on the one hand and the realities of a complex modern state and society on the other. 3/

Conversely, clinging to the idea that the Trumpists are simply too incompetent to cause any real damage, a clown show not worth taking seriously, won’t cut it either. And I find the notion that the second Trump presidency will mostly be a rerun of the first mostly misleading. 4/

Will the Trump regime’s malevolence yet again be tempered by its rank incompetence? Trump is still erratic and lazy. Many of his nominees are unqualified. But they are also willing executioners of MAGA extremism and will have more competence and preparation around them. 5/

The regime won’t simply be able to implement everything in Project 2025. Then again, the fact that the rightwing machinery of think tanks, lobbying groups, and reactionary intellectuals had years to fully mobilize does make the situation markedly different from Trump One. 6/

The existence of elaborate plans doesn’t mean there won’t be unforced errors or chaos. But that is not the same as moderation. Chaos can also accelerate the harm. And in authoritarian movements, frustration and chaos are at least as likely to lead to further radicalization. 7/

If the recent trajectory of the Right is any indication, every crisis situation only heightens the sense of being under siege, legitimizing calls to hit harder, more aggressively. There’s always permission to escalate, hardly ever to pull back. 8/

Trump himself and the rightwing forces around him have radicalized over the past fifteen years. He wants revenge, they desire a comprehensive “counter-revolution” – all are convinced they were far too timid the first time around. A “mistake” they are unlikely to make again. 9/

Most importantly, the circumstances have changed. Many of the factors that inhibited the Right during the first Trump presidency are no longer present; guardrails that kept the more extreme factions in check after 2017 have been vastly weakened or destroyed entirely. 10/

One: Trump can now count on a hard-right 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court. A game changer. And we have never even seen this Court operate with a Republican trifecta - nor a Trumpist regime under conditions of guaranteed immunity. 11/

Two: Trump was also hampered by resistance from within the Republican Party and the conservative movement. But dissenters have largely been ostracized. The Trumpist regime will be able to count on a fully Trumpified party and rightwing machinery of think tanks and activists. 12/

Three: All forms of resistance, regardless of where it emanates or what form it might take, will encounter an unprecedented threat of political violence - condoned and endorsed by all strands of the Right from Trump on down, intended to intimidate anyone who dares to dissent. 13/

Finally, I’d be more optimistic if the nominal opposition party and the institutions ostensibly tasked with defending democracy hadn’t so clearly signaled since the election that they’re not in the mood / not able to oppose - instead opting for accommodation and acquiescence. 14/

It’s self-defeating to assume the Trumpists will implement everything they have planned or desire to do exactly as they wish. Politics isn’t over.

But they will be operating under conditions that are vastly more favorable to their authoritarian cause.

thomaszimmer.substack.com/p/why-the-seco…