So, it pains me a little to write this because I rarely wade in political waters, but I don’t think people are looking far enough down the path. So I will go out on a limb and say the following.
1/6
When Trump got elected in 2016 and some family and friends went nuts, I attempted to assuage them with “don’t sweat Trump - worry about what comes after.”
Remember my leanings. I am Mercutio. “A plague on both your houses.”
2/
Then Biden came in 2020 and as they rejoiced I said: “don’t cheer too loudly - you should worry about what comes after him.”
Now Trump won in a landslide and they were in shock, some are in the midst of true PTSD. And again I say: “worry about what comes after.”
3/
Somewhere over the course of this weekend, the whole Grift notion stopped being amusing to me. I think many people out there are feeling some kind of way about it too.
And I think this nonsense pissed a lot of people off more than a simple Elon H1B visa fracas.
4/
I also think perceived moral authority abhors a vacuum. And what has happened with this meme grift is incredibly “Jump The Shark”-y.
Can’t help think that if ever there was a moment for the left to retool and some AOC figure to step to the plate and take a swing at the ball… 5/
There are also implications for what Bessent needs to do with the long end, as well as the dollar. I will be addressing this on the blog in upcoming notes.
Welcome to 2025 — The Year of the Rollercoaster.
And remember: never sweat this one…worry about what comes next.
/Fin
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Guys I am honestly having a hard time keeping up with the Max Stupid traffic so I am gonna make this an ongoing thread. Please send me your best and I will grow the list until the penny drops.
1/
Awww how quaint this should be worth a billion easy 2/
Milton is like Kobe Jan1995. Except in 1H95 the Nikkei crashed for months, even took down Barings with Leeson. Now stocks may do the same initially (no bears, put/call crushed, etc), but they are gonna eventually rip so hard on the Milton rebuild.
1/4
Think about it - Helene/FEMA been a complete clusterfuk (we can debate whether intentionally or not elsewhere). Like Katrina for Biden/Kamala.
But Florida? This is the state thay cost Al Gore the presidency in 2000 — remember “hanging chads?”
2/
Team Kamala will try to atone for their Helene sins in N Carolina by making it fricking RAIN in Florida (money not water) — just weeks before the election. Kamala will stand in floodwaters if she has to in order to make the point that Florida is her example for what swing states can expect.
3/
A few real gems from the past few weeks’ oil responses.
🧵
There are many like this - flat and reasonably polite. I didn’t realize down 5-10% from basis constituted “shambles” but some people have tighter risk limits than others I supposed
Again “bust,” like “shambles,” seems somewhat strong, but one man’s correction is another man’s financial crisis.
Regardless of how all the wild speculation around the US Executive ends up in the coming days, weeks and months, the current uncertainty is growing my conviction rapidly in one way specifically:
1/4
Oil powers the machine everywhere. The economic machine. The activity machine. The war machine. The Machine. It is the substrate of power and might.
The uncertainty splintering the minds of many in the market could end in up with “oil as the next gold,” in the following way.
2/
For almost two years we heard “but, but real rates are going up, how is gold going up??”
We now know why the divergence. Hindsight = 20/20.
Similarly, in 2024-25 the refrain could be “but, but US is flirting with recession and Asia is vulnerable — how is oil going up??”
3/
My buddy @kevinmuir wrote one of the best things I have read all year:
Rate hikes have been net stimulative as borrowers termed out lower while higher govt rates generate income accruing to debtholders with a tendency to buy financial assets vs spend, fueling mini-bubbles. Lower rates from a slower economy will have the opposite effect on stocks.
I have said ad nauseum how we are speaking Portuguese and don’t realize it in the EM-ification of USA. A key mechanism to turning Brazil into one of the highest gini coefficients in the world is precisely an elevated nominal/inflationary feedback loop environment which, taken to BZ’s extreme, has resulted in payroll loans and consumer credit at 30% *per month* while the rich would park in BZ sovereigns earning 20% nominal/10% real and send their money to swiss mountaintops while flying private. Modern day Gilded Age robber baron shit handed down from the era of sugar plantations but without the production of Carnegie steel and Rockefeller oil — just constant gini tightening.
2/
Because the economy became uncompetitive (protectionism, lack of education, horrendous waste and public corruption) and woefully inefficient, the feedback loop of fiscal creating money that the CB would try to stanch would further reallocate/siphon wealth in classic Austrian style from the working/poor classes to the politically well connected and rich.
This is the subtle link between Mises and Mosler and where MMT and Austrian have more in common than perhaps they would ever admit.
3/
Putting this here rather than behind the stack paywall and doing it before 6pm because I am seeing a lot of really shit takes on why this was a nothingburger since Iran didn’t hit anything major, “all bark no bite,” and so gold and especially oil should be faded.
1/7
I think people who are thinking this way about oil in particular are scarred by 3 - THREE - successive physical dumps over the past 2 years and that is Martingale thinking gone awry.
1) Russia invaded, and Biden that summer cratered oil with a historic centimillion bbl sale.
2/
2) Oil tried to rally fall 2022 and Russia smoked positioning with a 40mm bbl crude dump in Nov-Dec22 followed by 40mm bbls diesel. Positioning took months to rinse.
3) 3Q22 rally into Oct 7th and Iran sold something like 80mm bbls of crude and naphtha on water. 4Q23 plunged.
3/