Cynical Publius Profile picture
Jan 26 2 tweets 2 min read Read on X
To fully understand just how remarkable today’s exchange with Colombia was, you need to understand how Washington DC has traditionally worked through these sorts of issues, and the different way it works now under Trump.

I’ll illustrate.

Traditional Approach:

1. Colombia announces it will not take our repatriation flights.
2. On Monday, the State Department convenes an interagency task force with DoD, NSC, DEA, INS, ICE, Commerce, Treasury and Homeland Security.
3. The task force meets for four days and develops a position paper.
4. The position paper is rejected by the Secretary of State, who is unhappy that insufficient equity considerations are built into the process.
5. The task force reconvenes a week later to redevelop three new, equity-centric courses of action and create a new position paper.
6. The process is delayed a week because Washington DC gets three inches of snow.
7. SecState approves the new position paper for interagency circulation, and considerable input is received from the heads of other departments so the task force must reconvene.
8. The original three proposed responsive courses of action are scrapped in favor of a new, fourth course of action that achieves the worst aspects of the three prior courses of action but satisfies the interagency.
9. Someone in State who disagrees leaks to the Washington Post, who writes a story about how ineffective the Presidential administration is.
10. The White House Chief of Staff sets up a session three days later to brief the President, who approves the new fourth course of action.
11. Over a month after the issue is first raised, the State Department Public Affairs Officer holds a press conference announcing that Colombia has agreed to try to send fewer criminals into the US and everyone declares victory.

Trump Approach:

1. Colombia announces it will not take our repatriation flights.
2. After a par-5 third hole where he goes one under par, Trump uses his iPhone to post on social media as to how the USA will destroy Colombia’s economy if they do not do what the USA demands.
3. By the time Trump gets to the par-4 sixth hole, Colombia’s President has agreed to repatriate all the illegal Colombians in his own plane, which he will pay for.
4. Trump finishes three under par and goes to the clubhouse for a Diet Coke where he posts a gangsta AI image of himself and the new FAFO Doctrine.
5. Winning.

See the difference? It’s called LEADERSHIP.
...and just a reminder....

One of the major complaints that LTC (Ret.) Alexander "Chow Thief" Vindman had about Trump was that he "went against the interagency."

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More from @CynicalPublius

Jan 4
If you were going to write a Hollywood script that contained a contemporary, giga-conspiracy theme, you could do no better than what we're seeing right now play out before us regarding Master Sergeant Matthew Livelsberger.

Think of all the contemporary/conspiracy theory elements:

-Trump Tower.
-Cybertruck (Elon).
-Special Forces Afghanistan vet, one year from retirement, whose family and teammates say he could not have done any of this.
-Worked in cutting-edge, military drone tech.
-Emails to whistleblowers about super-secret anti-gravity tech, Chinese forces attacking the East Coast, wartime cover-ups about killing civilians, and the Deep State hunting him as he tries to cross the border into Mexico.
-A MAGA Manifesto that millions of Americans could have mostly truthfully written without blowing themselves up (i.e., a scriptwriter theme, MAGA = crazy suicide bomber).

The story even has a MacGuffin--a Desert Eagle handgun suicide weapon that no self-respecting SF operator would ever actually carry. It's like the scriptwriters threw that little detail in there just to troll us.

Honestly, it all just feels to on-the-nose for me.

"Grok, write me a treatment for a movie about a paranoid anti-hero that includes a deep, dark conspiracy theory regarding the US government, and make it rotate around all of the biggest news issues of the past 6 months."

Too perfect.

Too much like we're living in a simulation.

At this point I have zero idea what is true or untrue about Livelsberger, or what is missing from his story.

I know Occam's razor says that the most logical scenario is that the guy snapped and had some sort of psychotic break, but my spidey sense is nevertheless tingling big time.

Something is off.
...and if you followed me for a while, you know I am almost always the one stomping on conspiracy theories and reverting to Occam's Razor. But this just feels too much like this: Image
Last point:

A key character in the movie Wag the Dog goes by the nickname "Shoe."

-also-

A key character in the unfolding Livelsberger story goes by the nickname "Shoe."

Sometimes the universe has a good laugh at it itself.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 2
So they identified the guy who was in the Cybertruck that blew up at Trump's place in Vegas.

His supposed LinkedIn is below.

✅Green Beret NCO?
✅Intelligence and Operations Specialist?
✅19 years, 1 month of Army service?
✅"Remote Autonomous Systems"?

Holy crap is the information op gonna be unreal on this one.

Could somebody please hit Ctrl-Alt-Del on 2025 please?

kthxbaiImage
Here's some fuel for the fire. Image
If he is SF, he almost certainly spent time on Fort Bragg.

Home of the 82nd Airborne Division.

In which the NOLA terrorist served.

On Fort Bragg.

Jus' sayin'
Read 4 tweets
Dec 30, 2024
Over the 2024 election season and after, I have been astonished to learn that so many conservatives are almost completely unaware of how politics and persuasion work in the USA.

A governing coalition must learn to rule as a group, with internal compromise being necessary at every turn. It is quite literally an impossibility for a governing coalition to accomplish ANY of its goals if it is unwilling to compromise on SOME of its goals.

This is not an opinion, it's a basic and immutable natural law.

This is particularly true under the Constitution, with its deliberate checks and balances designed to neuter the ability of any one branch to dominate.

The Democrats know this rule, which is why they are always able to push through radical agendas with only the slimmest of majorities. Republicans? It's like we WANT to be neutered and ineffective.

Moreover, this GOP ignorance extends to not understanding public "persuasion," as Scott Adams calls it.

A governing coalition that shows public-facing unity is able to persuade its weaker opponents that resistance is futile, and therefore it is far easier for the coalition to achieve its goals.

OTOH, a governing coalition that is publicly fractured and openly dispirited persuades a weaker opposition to be optimistic and work towards cracking open the coalition along those lines of fracture, and as a result the coalition is far less able to achieve its goals.

I wish more people understood these realities.

(And please spare me the "CP just wants us to shut up and do what he says" garbage. Also, you can say all you want that "we are conservatives, we are not lock-step like the left" because none of that changes the objectively true statements I made above.)

Conservatives need to learn how to govern.
To be abundantly clear, I am talking ONLY about compromise INSIDE our ruling coalition.

I am not talking about compromise with Democrats.

As far as I'm concerned, at this moment in time we should compromise with Democrats on NOTHING and tell them to suck eggs.
...and one more thing.

What I wrote above applies to EVERYONE in the coalition.

It applies to Vivek and Elon just as much as it applies to the rando crazies calling me "Pubilicious" in the comments.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 31, 2024
We are all on edge about the election. Despite our confidence in the pro-Trump polling and early vote numbers we see daily, we are nevertheless anxious and uncertain.

We should be anxious and uncertain.

Our nation, our lives and the lives and our grandchildren depend upon the results of this election.

We are 6 days away from the election.

Fear and uncertainty are our enemies, as we need to inspire our friends, families and co-workers to get out and vote.

Inspiration is required.

Those of you who follow me know how much I am inspired by certain movie scenes.

So let’s do that.

A thread.

1 of 9. 🧵
Of course it all starts with this.

“We few, we happy few, we band of brothers and sisters;
For he or she to-day that votes blood with me
Shall be my brother or sister; be they ne’er so vile,
This day shall gentle their condition:
And voters in the USA now a-bed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their personhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon November 5th.”

youtube.com/watch?v=bvFHRN…

2 of 9 🧵
But we must endure and defeat cheaters and traitors. We will win nonetheless. Have a brave heart.



3 of 9🧵
Read 9 tweets
Oct 25, 2024
So GEN (Ret.) Barry McCaffrey is in the news again, this time as an MSNBC commentator attacking Trump regarding the “Trump loves Hitler” hoax.

I want to tell you a story about good ol’ Barry. The story speaks to how The Swamp operates, how political generals operate and how the Democrat/Media Complex operates.

(I usually hesitate to cite anonymous sources, but the story I’m about to tell comes from a friend who was on Barry’s personal staff when the incident I am about to describe happened, and I have since confirmed the story with an impeccable source who served in the Clinton White House. I’m telling this story just as it was told to me.)

Bill Clinton took office in 1993. Shortly after the inauguration, Barry (who was then a 3-star and serving as the Joint Staff J-5 (Strategy, Plans and Policy)) went to the White House for a meeting. He wore his Class A uniform. I’ll let the Congressional Record tell you what supposedly happened:

“He says ‘good morning’' to a young staffer, a female, not that gender means anything. She leans over in his face, and says, ‘We don't talk to people over here who wear their uniforms.'’ Nobody was ever fired for that despicable insult. As far as we know, nobody was even disciplined.”

…and that’s exactly how the news media reported the story.

If you are a youngster, you may not realize what a big, BIG deal this was. Bill Clinton’s status as a draft dodger and someone who was on the record as saying he “loathed the military” was a HUGE campaign issue. Mending fences with a military that really did not like him was a very important issue in the first days of his Presidency. This issue with Barry could have had terrible implications for the Clinton Administration, but it was basically smoothed over and Barry appeared very gracious about it.

But here’s the shocker.

That “young staffer”? It was really 13 year-old Chelsea Clinton, and what she said was actually more along the lines of:

“My father and mother don’t allow uniforms in the White House.”

The White House Press Corps KNEW THIS and collectively refused to report it, ostensibly to protect an innocent 13 year-old girl. (But imagine if Barron Trump had done something similar!!!) The reality was that they stayed silent not to protect Chelsea, but to protect Bill and Hillary from having to ‘fess up to the fact that they really did teach Chelsea to think and act like that. (Things could have been even worse because a few weeks later “Blackhawk Down” happened after SecDef Les Aspin refused to authorize sending M1 tanks to Somalia.)

Even today you won’t find this story accurately reported in the news.

Which brings us back to Barry. The President privately apologized to him, Barry kept his mouth shut, and to quote what the President told Jack Ryan in the movie “Clear and Present Danger”:

“You've got yourself a chip in the big game now. You're gonna tuck that away, you are going to save that for a time when your own ass is on the line and then you're gonna pull it out. And I'm going to cash it in for you. Right? But it won't go any further than that. It's the ol' Potomac two-step, Jack."

And that’s exactly what Barry did. He kept his mouth shut. He played the Potomac Two-Step. Then he made his fourth star and became the combatant commander for USSOUTHCOM, and most people in the know thought that was a steeping stone to moving first to USCENTCOM, and then maybe to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. But Barry retired early, called in that chip, and Clinton appointed him as director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy (the “Drug Czar”), which I feel pretty sure (IMO) Barry thought was a path to one day maybe being POTUS himself, which thankfully never happened.

So there it is. A scandal the media refused to report on. A political general who let POTUS, his wife and his kid insult and demean the military in exchange for a shut mouth and a cushy political appointment.

It’s the Potomac Two-Step.

It’s The Swamp.

It’s why The Swamp has to lie about, attempt to imprison, and attempt to murder Trump, all because he won’t play the game.

It’s also why when Barry McCaffrey and his banana republic, corrupt flag officer ilk get on MSNBC, you can’t trust a word they say.
Here's the Congressional Record link:

govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CR…
"Stepping stone"

not

"Steeping stone."

DAMMIT.

Never fails.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 13, 2024
I see that dude is getting millions of views getting his Tim Walz story out drip-drip-drip.

If you know me, you know I despise Tim Walz and would never do anything to assist his electoral chances.

Nevertheless, I try to remain a person of integrity.

If/when this dude reports something meaningful that either:

(A) Is not already open-source public knowledge;
(B) Includes official and incriminating government or school district documentation; or
(C) Includes assertions of illegal behavior by Walz from a named and independently verifiable source;

Then somebody please wake me and let me know because I would love for these accusations to be verifiably true.

Until then, however, I'm not playing Kraken-level engagement farming.
OK, everybody, please let me explain why I find this problematic.

Unproven/unprovable, libelous assertions discredit our movement.

Here are FACTS that we know about Walz:

-As a high school teacher, he took a confused 15 year old boy student home with him and to an Indigo Girls’ concert.
-He encouraged this boy to accept that he was gay, presumably without his parents’ knowledge.

These facts ALONE are scandalous and disqualifying. We should be shouting them from the rooftops. We know they are true because Walz bragged about them. In his telling of the story, “Coach” Walz was a hero who saved this boy from bullying.

However, when you add in a bunch of unverified/unverifiable accusations of gay statutory rape, all of a sudden that unverified story puts a cloud over the FACTS that by themselves are awful.

This is how counter-intel ops work.

The idea is to discredit MAGA, discredit our movement, and hide truth behind deceit.

This is why I recommend we ALL be super cautious whenever we encounter a Kraken/Q/PizzaGate story. Often times we are the targets. We are the intended victims.

Let’s be careful out there please.
I don’t think some people understand just how dark, sinister and sophisticated military-style information operations actually are, so to help those people understand, I want to offer a “what if” hypothetical.

Consider the post I linked to below from “Doc’s” arch-nemesis, “Agent Self.” Read what “Agent” wrote. Then read the various responses to his post, which mostly go like this:

“See??? MAGAts are all liars. You can’t trust anything they say.”

What if the objective of this particular information operation was to make sure any true things MAGAs say about Tim Walz are discredited by the lies of others purporting to be MAGAs?

What if those lies were told for that very purpose?

What if “Doc” and “Agent” are the same person, or are on a team working in tandem for the same entity?

See how deep the rabbit hole can go?

I’m not saying any of what I just said is true. But it MIGHT BE. That’s why it is imperative that we remain skeptical about news that appeals to our base emotions, and conduct independent investigation and verification on our own.

Trust no one. Not even me.

x.com/AgentSelf99B/s…
Read 4 tweets

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