Ran Neuner Profile picture
Jan 27 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
THIS COULD GET WORSE!

A lot of people on my timeline believe that the @deepseek_ai issue could be confined to traditional markets - THEY ARE WRONG!

Let me break it down for you.

🧵
Deepseek is a Chinese AI that can compete with the likes of OPENAI, META, CLAUDE and the others.

However instead of costing billion of $$ to develop it allegedly cost $5,5m.

The model also requires a fraction of the computation to run and train.

Whilst this is a great breakthrough and will make AI faster and more affordable, there is an issue
The majority of the gains in the US markets were created by AI returns and by the expected profitability of these companies.

As an example, NVDA is priced full as the major provider of all the hardware and infrastructure.. Image
The issue now is that we may not need it as much and therefore the current price is not justified and needs to come down. Image
So how will this spread to crypto?

The largest wealth creator in the last 24 months has been the tech market and the AI stocks.

They have created Trillions of dollars of paper wealth.

This wealth has allowed people to move higher up the risk curve and into crypto.

If these stocks take a hit, people will lose fortunes and this could crash all risk markets as people scramble out of risk.

Make no mistake , this could be a black swan. It’s completely unexpected and caught everyone by surprise.

The magnitude is also huge.Image
So what happens next?

The market needs to properly evaluate this tech and the implications.

It could also be trickery by the Chinese as we know they are so good at.

If it is a black swan, it may be the reason governments are eventually forced to print money again.
Either way I expect it to get worse before it gets better. Hold on tight. Make sure you’re holding quality!!!!

This is a potential repricing event and is actually great for economies in the long term….
I don’t normally write long threads because of my ADD. If you enjoyed it, please like and share….

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More from @cryptomanran

Dec 8, 2022
Please remind me of the following in the 2023/24 Bull Market.

1. Work Hard.
2. Stay Humble.
3. Be Consistent -whatever the market conditions.
4. Protect your integrity at all costs.
5. Protect your audience at all costs.
6. Be over-transparent all the time.

1/
7. Make many mistakes - Be honest when you do.
8. Fail fast & try again, fast.
9. Grow those that grow the family.
10. Work with cool people , only.
11. Listen to criticism- even from the smallest accounts. They saw $LUNA, you didn't.

2/
12. If you're being attacked, you're doing it right.
13. Invest in networks and fundamentals, not momentum.
14. Big funds usually haven't done a DD.
15. If you feel like buying, sell.
16. If you feel like selling, buy.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Nov 3, 2022
Last night’s FOMC & aggressive posturing by the FED is just noise , shouldn’t affect your investment thesis at all, and, specifically in this industry it may actually be the biggest opportunity of your life!

Here’s why, a 🧵….

1/10
The global markets & the FED are currently fixated on inflation, interest rates, supply chain disruptions etc.

These are all short term issues that will be resolved in the next 12-24 months.

2/10
In this period, as Powell said last night, the FED will adopt an aggressive approach. They will tighten “until something breaks”. When it does ,they will fix it “using their tools” , namely money printing and quantitative easing.

3/10
Read 10 tweets
Jul 22, 2022
Over 70% of people that have invested in Crypto are down on their investments today.
If you are part of that 70% you, this thread may help you get some perspective.

1/8
2/ Firstly, note that you are viewing your portfolio after the biggest crypto collapse of all time. Over $2trillion has been wiped! We may not be at the bottom, but we are certainly nearer to the bottom! In a few weeks or months, your portfolio will probably look better.
3/ 70%+ of crypto investors are now underwater. You are not alone. The other 30% consist mainly of OG’s and others that invested early. In this case early doesn’t only mean cheap, it means early enough to learn from multiple bull and bear markets.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
Last tweet on @CryptoCapo_ .

Capo has been around for a while and previously wasn't very accurate or well known.

To his credit, he did call this crash very very well! He called the market down & rode his call to the bottom, just like many called the market up to the top.

1/13
But, like those that called the market up and continued on the narrative even once the market turned, Capo found his narrative calling the market down & as the market went down, he built a following and momentum, but also got trapped in a narrative, "down"!

2/13 ImageImage
Once the liquidations subsided & market started to turn, I tried to respectfully highlight a point using the data (below)!
My tweet was responded to with attacks and aggression and I was told to go and look for engagement elsewhere.

3/13 ImageImage
Read 13 tweets
May 25, 2022
Some thoughts on TERRA 2.0.

(Probably won’t win me any points with the community and will definitely hurt my bags!)

A thread 🧵…
1/ Crypto is all about a magic combination of:
- identifying ideological problems.
- creating a technology to solve them.
- building a community of passionate developers to build amazing products to solve the problems.
- building a passionate community of investors and users.
2/ $LUNA did all of this around the problem of centralized, collateralized, stable money. Developers, Investors and users all wanted a truly decentralized stable money! (And they also wanted to earn 20% on it risk free 🤣)
Read 14 tweets
May 24, 2022
As a 2015/19 double Crypto bear market survivor, the biggest lesson I learnt is that beating a bear market is about one thing; PATIENCE.
All you need to do is SURVIVE until it turns & trying to rush a bear market will wipe you out. Here are a few other tips that may help. A 🧵...
1/Firstly, come to terms with the fact that the bear market will last way longer than you anticipated, just like the bull market ended way sooner than you predicted. A bull market is a sprint, a bear market is a marathon. Prepare yourself mentally for a tough road ahead!
2/Stop looking at the screen. Checking prices in a bull market is fun, it re-affirms what a genius you actually are 🤣! In a bear market it will not only distract you from the fundamentals but sudden temporary price declines may also cause you to panic and sell.
Read 14 tweets

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