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GC Cooke

@GCcookeHQ

Jan 27 • 19 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X

Scrolly

A Chinese company just shattered OpenAI's $18 billion advantage:

They proved you can build ChatGPT-level AI for 100x cheaper.

And it's about to trigger the biggest market crash since the dot-com bubble.

Here's why the Chinese are keeping this a secret:

For the past 5 years, the AI industry has been built on one core assumption:

Building powerful AI requires massive resources.

Huge data centers. Thousands of engineers. Billions in funding.

That assumption just got shattered:

OpenAI has raised $18 billion.

They've built some of the world's most advanced data centers, hired the brightest minds, and spent years perfecting their models.

All based on the belief that this was the only way forward.

But something just changed everything:

A new AI model has matched their performance at a fraction of the cost.

Not just marginally cheaper.

We're talking about an order of magnitude reduction in what it takes to build world-class AI.

This isn't just disruption - it's an extinction event.

China knows this, that's why DeepSeek just restricted registration to mainland China mobile numbers only.

To understand why, we need to look back at the dot-com crash of 2000.

History doesn't repeat itself...it rhymes.

Companies spent hundreds of billions laying fiber optic cables under oceans. This is remarkably similar to what happened with GPU's in the 2000's.

They built enough infrastructure to handle 50 years of internet traffic growth.

Everyone was convinced this was the future:

But they made a crucial miscalculation:

The infrastructure far outpaced actual demand.

Companies like Webvan built billion-dollar warehouses, assuming everyone would instantly start buying groceries online.

They were right about the trend, but catastrophically wrong about timing.

That is a universal law of disruptive technology - eventually, supply exceeds demand and the cycle resets:

When reality hit, it was brutal:

• Stock prices collapsed
• Companies went bankrupt
• Trillions in value vanished

Today's AI boom is following the exact same pattern, but the numbers are even more shocking:

Sequoia predicts the AI industry needs $600 billion in revenue to justify current investments.

We're at just 10% of that today.

This isn't just a gap - it's a chasm between expectation and reality.

And now comes the catalyst that brings it all down:

This breakthrough in efficient AI development proves something stunning:

Most of the massive infrastructure being built right now is unnecessary.

Think about the implications:

• Billions in data centers? Overkill
• Massive hardware investments? Wasteful
• Current AI valuations? Pure fantasy

Here's why this changes everything:

The entire economic model of the AI industry is built on scarcity:

"Only a few companies can afford to build powerful AI."

That scarcity just vanished.

And when artificial scarcity disappears, bubbles pop:

Just like the internet in 2000, AI is about to enter its "trough of disillusionment."

Not because the technology doesn't work.

But because we've built an entire industry on assumptions that are no longer true.

History tells us what happens next:

After the dot-com crash, something fascinating happened:

While the media declared the internet "dead," the real revolution began quietly.

Amazon wasn't building unnecessary infrastructure.

They were solving real problems for customers:

The same transformation is coming to AI.

Web4 will emerge from the ashes, built on fundamentally different principles:

• Efficient, affordable AI models
• Decentralized infrastructure
• Natural human interfaces
• Value from data quality, not brute force compute

This reshapes the entire landscape:

The winners won't be who you expect.

Just like Amazon understood retail better than understood pets...

The next AI giants will be built by people who understand real human needs.

Three massive shifts are already beginning:Pets.com

1. Edge Computing Over Cloud:
AI moves from massive data centers to local devices, bringing privacy and speed

2. Data Quality Over Size:
Better data beats bigger models

3. Practical Uses Over Demos:
Solving real problems beats impressive parlor tricks

The smart money sees this coming:

We're witnessing a pivotal moment in tech history.

The AI bubble will burst.

But just like the internet after 2000, what comes next will be far more revolutionary than anyone expects.

https://twitter.com/115033380/status/1883938104823931197

Thanks for reading! - you're awesome!

Follow me @thegrahamcooke for more.

Like/Repost the quote below if you benefited:

https://twitter.com/115033380/status/1883938104823931197

A bit more about me!

I'm Graham.

Author, innovator, entrepreneur, and one of the first European employees at Google. I built products with them that generated over $2B+ in revenue.

Currently working on @bravaxyz for effortless, secure, stablecoin yields, on autopilot.

Video credits:
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• YT link youtube.com/watch?v=VdACzw…
• YT link youtube.com/watch?v=-2k1rc…
• YT link youtu.be/iUHMnVIvGI8?si…
• YT link youtu.be/WEBiebbeNCA?si…
• YT link youtube.com/watch?v=Nib5ye…

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More from @GCcookeHQ

GC Cooke

@GCcookeHQ

Oct 13

Circle just killed crypto's sacred rule.

Their president wants "reversible transactions" on blockchain—a feature crypto was designed to eliminate.

The $74B stablecoin issuer is courting banks over purists.

Here's why this heretical move could unlock mainstream adoption (+ why crypto VCs are calling it "offensive"):

First, understand what's being challenged here.

For years, irreversibility has been sacred in blockchain.

Once a transaction settles, it's permanent.

No one can reverse it.

This wasn't a bug - it was the whole point:

The 2008 crisis taught crypto founders one lesson.

Banks freeze accounts.

Payment processors deny service.

Governments confiscate assets.

The solution? Remove intermediaries entirely.

Make finality automatic through code instead of banks.

Read 22 tweets

GC Cooke

@GCcookeHQ

Sep 22

AI is rewiring your brain—and Silicon Valley says that's the point.

Reid Hoffman: "10,000 prompts is the new 10,000 hours."

You lose detailed problem-solving. You gain 10x ambition.

Why this trade-off is reshaping how leaders think:

MIT researchers measured students outsourcing essay writing to ChatGPT.

83% couldn't recall what they'd written. Brain activity plummeted.

But here's the fallacy: That's not how ambitious professionals use AI.

The study measured copy-paste. It didn't measure leadership.

When I use ChatGPT as a founder, it's not to replace my thinking.

It's to multiply it.

I prompt like I'd brief a junior colleague. Then review and edit like I'm managing a team.

The intellectual framing stays mine. The leverage becomes 10x.

Read 16 tweets

GC Cooke

@GCcookeHQ

Sep 19

A crypto company is hoarding $8.7B in gold bars.

Not Bitcoin. Not digital assets. Physical gold.

Mining executives call Tether "the weirdest company ever."

Here's the shocking reason they're buying up gold mines:

Tether runs USDT, the world's biggest stablecoin.

$168 billion market cap.
$5.7 billion profits in just the first half of 2024.

They're one of the largest US Treasury holders on the planet.

But their gold strategy caught everyone off guard:

Those $8.7 billion in gold bars?

They're sitting in Zurich vaults right now.
Physical bullion backing their digital operations.

CEO Paolo Ardoino calls gold "natural bitcoin."

His next move shocked the mining industry:

Read 13 tweets

GC Cooke

@GCcookeHQ

Sep 12

AI could make your kids 500 times richer than you.

Tech experts predict 20% annual economic growth.

But unless you're properly positioned, you'll miss the real opportunity.

Here's what you need to know to benefit:

First, let's understand what 20% growth actually means.

At that rate, the economy doubles 3 times per decade.

Your children grow up in a completely different world.

Centuries of progress compressed into decades.

ARK Invest predicts 7% annual GDP growth from AI.

That alone would double living standards every decade.

Epoch AI goes further.
They suggest 20% is possible once preconditions are met.

These aren't random numbers:

Read 14 tweets

GC Cooke

@GCcookeHQ

Sep 8

Trump's Treasury pick Scott Bessent has a solution to America's $29 trillion debt crisis:

Force crypto to buy it!

Stablecoin companies must legally hold US Treasury bills as collateral. That's $2 trillion in guaranteed buyers.

Here's how crypto replaces foreign governments as America's lender:

First, understand what just happened.

Congress passed the Genius Act in July.

New law: Stablecoins must back their dollars with ultra-safe assets.

Translation: Treasury bills become mandatory.

Today's stablecoin market holds $250 billion.

Bessent told Congress he expects it to reach $2 trillion in the coming years.

That's 8x growth from where we are now.

Every new digital dollar needs Treasury backing.

Read 16 tweets

GC Cooke

@GCcookeHQ

Sep 5

The guy who used AI to make a fake Biden and trick voters in 2024 got fined $6 million.

His amateur operation only fooled 5,000 people.

But he accidentally created the blueprint that political operatives will use to target 50 million Americans.

Here's the terrifying blueprint they'll use (and how to spot it):

That fake Biden robocall in New Hampshire was just the beginning.

A political consultant created it with voice-cloning tools. Got caught. Faced felony charges.

The FCC's $6 million fine was the first penalty for AI voter suppression.

But while we celebrated catching one guy, something bigger was happening:

In 2024, elections took place in 64 countries.

That's 49% of the world's population voting.

38 of those countries saw deepfakes used to manipulate voters.

We weren't dealing with isolated incidents anymore: